Fortune | FORTUNE 10月28日 06:18
WTO总干事:全球贸易体系虽遇挑战但仍具韧性
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世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉表示,尽管面临关税上升、供应链中断和经济民族主义抬头等挑战,由WTO主导的全球贸易框架仍表现出惊人的韧性。她指出,尽管美国对现有贸易规则提出质疑,但大部分全球贸易仍遵循WTO规则。奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉强调,当前的挑战是改革WTO决策机制、提高透明度,并适应数字贸易和人工智能带来的新变化,她将WTO比作全球经济的“管道系统”,需要不断更新以维持顺畅运行。

🌍 **全球贸易体系展现韧性**:尽管面临特朗普政府推行的贸易政策变化、关税上升和供应链中断等严峻挑战,世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉认为全球贸易体系并未重蹈20世纪初的覆辙。她指出,目前仍有约72%的全球贸易遵循WTO的最惠国待遇原则,并且大多数成员国避免了“滴对滴”的报复性关税措施,显示出系统的稳定性。

🛠️ **改革与现代化势在必行**:奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉提出了雄心勃勃的改革议程,核心在于更新WTO的共识决策机制,因为需要所有成员国一致同意的模式有时会导致僵局。她还强调了提高补贴和贸易报告透明度的重要性,以确保公平的竞争环境,维护体系的公信力。

🌐 **数字贸易与AI的新挑战**:面向未来,WTO的改革议程必须纳入快速发展的数字贸易和人工智能。AI驱动的商品和服务占全球贸易的很大比例,并以惊人的速度增长。为此,WTO正牵头谈判一项具有里程碑意义的电子商务协议,旨在为数字时代的贸易建立新的全球规则和“管道系统”。

Still,  Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, a Nigerian economist who is the first woman and the first African to lead the World Trade Organization as director-general, insisted that what’s happening isn’t a replay of that dark decade in the early 20th century. “It is functioning,”  Dr. Okonjo-Iweala said of trade, but it’s not functioning quite in the way it used to before. This is due to President Donald Trump enacting several sudden changes to world trade that reflect what he considers flaws in the system. “I think that a lot of the criticisms made by the U.S. of the system are valid,” the former Nigerian minister said, urging the audience to use this opportunity for wider reform.

Speaking in a wide-ranging discussion on the future of the global trading system with Fortune‘s Ellie Austin at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala argued that despite rising tariffs, broken supply chains, and the resurgence of economic nationalism, the WTO-led framework has shown surprising resilience. “Before the current wave of tariff disputes, roughly 80% of global trade operated under WTO’s most-favored-nation rules,” she said, noting that this has dropped to about 72 %, “but the important thing is that the system is still holding.”

Surprised and pleased with resilience

Dr. Okonjo-Iweala acknowledged that the scale of disruption rivals the protectionist spiral of the interwar years, yet emphasized that key differences have prevented history from repeating itself. “What we see now is the fact that we’ve talked to members to avoid their tit-for-tat,” she said, referring to an escalating cycle of protectionism and tariff walls going up everywhere between economies. Most WTO members have not done that, she added. “I’m very proud of them … they are all still trading with themselves, mostly on WTO rules.”

While the United States — which accounts for nearly 30% of global imports — has challenged existing trade rules and bypassed dispute settlement mechanisms, the director-general stressed that the WTO framework remains indispensable. The U.S. may be operating differently, she said, but 87 % of world trade continues to be governed by WTO disciplines. “We were surprised and pleased at the resilience of the system.”

The director-general outlined an ambitious reform agenda to restore confidence in global governance. Central to her proposal is modernizing the WTO’s consensus decision-making process, which requires unanimity among all  166  members. Unanimity sounds noble, she said, “but sometimes you really get stuck.” She said the answer is simple but difficult: “The members have to work at it. Okay? It’s up to them to come up with the answers.”

Greater transparency in subsidies and trade reporting, she added, will be critical. “If you don’t have a level playing field, and practices are not seen to be fair, that really does undermine the system,” she said.

A new plumbing system?

The director-general compared the WTO’s role to “the plumbing” of the global economy — “you don’t think of it until the pipe breaks.” From intellectual property protections to valuation rules for cross-border goods, she said these often-overlooked standards sustain trillions of dollars in commerce each year.

She also highlighted how deeply many smaller economies rely on rules-based trade: Out of 166 members, 142 have trade-to-GDP ratios above 50%, and they “really depend on trade and need the rules. You can’t make an agreement with every single country, so you need multilateral rules and a level and a system that provides stability and predictability.”

Turning to the future, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala said the next wave of reforms must address the rapid expansion of digital and AI-driven commerce. Roughly 40% of global trade in the past year involved AI-related goods such as semiconductors, telecoms, and advanced computing. Digitally delivered services alone are worth nearly $5 trillion, growing at 8% annually — twice as fast as the trade in goods.

Artificial intelligence, she continued, has the potential to dramatically reduce trade costs while shifting the nature of goods and services exchanged. That transformation demands new plumbing, or new global rules. To that end, the WTO has convened a group of nearly 70 members to negotiate a landmark e‑commerce agreement — the first of its kind — with a first phase expected by the March  2026  ministerial conference.

Despite uncertainty, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala framed the current crisis as a pivotal opportunity for renewal. “In every crisis, there’s always opportunity,” she said, seeming to imply that the world is ripe for new pipes under the surface. So it’s a relief that the 1930s aren’t being repeated, something like tear-down construction, but rewiring the plumbing of the world economy could take some time — and be very expensive.

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WTO 全球贸易 贸易改革 恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉 数字贸易 人工智能 WTO Resilience Trade Reform Digital Trade Artificial Intelligence
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