Fortune | FORTUNE 09月15日
投资大师帕布莱分享复利增长的智慧:72法则
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

在近期的一次播客节目中,投资大师帕布莱强调了“72法则”在理解资金翻倍时间上的重要性。该法则通过将72除以年化收益率,即可估算出资金翻倍所需的大致年数,例如7%的年化收益率约需10.3年翻倍。帕布莱指出,掌握这一心算工具能帮助投资者快速评估长期投资潜力。他还以印第安人23美元卖掉曼哈顿的例子,生动说明了复利增长的惊人力量,即使初始本金微薄,只要时间足够长,复利效应也能带来巨额财富。此外,帕布莱还建议投资者“量入为出”,尽早开始投资以最大化复利效应,并专注于投资指数基金而非个股。

💰 **72法则揭示资金翻倍奥秘**:该法则是一个简便的数学工具,通过将72除以预期的年化收益率,即可估算出资金翻倍所需的大致年数。例如,年化收益率为7%时,资金约需10.3年翻倍;若达到10%则需7年,15%则约需5年。这一心算能力对于投资者快速评估不同投资机会的长期潜力至关重要。

📈 **复利的力量:历史案例的启示**:帕布莱以印第安人当年以23美元售卖曼哈顿的例子,生动阐释了复利增长的强大力量。他计算得出,若这笔钱以7%的年化收益率持续投资400年,其价值将远超今日曼哈顿的房地产价值(约2.2万亿美元)。即使是2.3美分的初始投资,在足够长的时间跨度下,也能增长至惊人的数额,强调了“只要时间足够长,初始本金并不重要”。

💡 **稳健投资的三大基石**:帕布莱为普通投资者提供了三项核心建议:首先,务必“量入为出”,即支出少于收入;其次,尽早开始投资,以最大限度地利用复利效应的“跑道”;最后,建议专注于投资宽基指数基金(如标普500),而非试图挑选个股,这是一种更普适且有效的长期增值策略。

During a recent appearance on The Diary of a CEO, a popular business podcast hosted by British entrepreneur Steven Bartlett, Pabrai emphasized the importance of this financial principle. The Rule of 72 is a simple way to help you calculate how long it takes money to double at a given interest rate.

“It’s a kind of a mathematical hack,” Pabrai said during the interview. “The rule of 72 is a very important rule, and I wish they would teach it more in high schools and elementary school.”

The formula works by dividing 72 by the expected annual return percentage. For example, at a 7% return, money doubles in approximately 10 years (72 ÷ 7 = 10.3). At 10% returns, doubling occurs in roughly seven years, while 15% returns cut the doubling time to about five years.

“It’s very important to know how long money takes to double, because then we can start doing a lot of math in our heads,” Pabrai said.

This mental calculation ability allows investors to quickly assess the long-term potential of different investment opportunities without complex financial calculators.

The power of compound interest

To illustrate the power of compound interest, Pabrai shared a compelling historical example during the interview. In 1623, Native American Indians sold Manhattan to Dutch settlers for $23. Yes, you read that right.

“If the Indians had invested at 7% a year for the last 400 years, they would have more money than owning the land,” he explained. Using the Rule of 72, that $23 would have doubled every 10.3 years at 7% returns. Over 400 years, this would have resulted in approximately $23 trillion—significantly more than the value of Manhattan real estate today, which is estimated to be in the ballpark of $2.2 trillion.

The example becomes even more striking when scaled down: “If you gave them 2.3 cents, 100 years later, they’d have $23, and now it would be the 23 trillion,” Pabrai noted, adding “if the runway is long enough, the starting capital doesn’t matter.”

Beyond the mathematical concept, Pabrai offered practical advice for everyday investors during the interview. He emphasized three fundamental principles: “spend less than you earn,” start investing young to maximize the compounding runway, and focus on broad market indices rather than individual stock picking.

“You could open an account at Fidelity or Interactive Brokers or Robin Hood, any of these places,” he said. “You could just ask them to give to buy you the S&P 500 index, for example, and they will get you invested in that.”

Pabrai said if you start investing at age 18, an initial $5,000 investment with a 10% return would result in approximately $500,000 by age 68, thanks to the money doubling seven times over the 50-year period.

“You can start seeing that over a lifetime, you’re going to be having too much money,” he noted.

The investment guru

Pabrai’s advocacy for this simple mathematical tool demonstrates how foundational financial concepts, when properly understood and applied, can transform investment outcomes. His message is clear: The path to wealth isn’t through complex strategies or market timing, but through understanding the fundamental mathematics of compound growth and having the patience to let it work over time. Plus, the simplicity of the rule—valuable for quick mental calculations—helps investors appreciate why maintaining consistent returns matters more than chasing spectacular short-term gains.

Pabrai brings considerable credibility to his investment recommendations. Born in Mumbai in 1964, he moved to the United States to attend Clemson University before launching his entrepreneurial career. After founding and successfully selling his IT consulting company TransTech for $20 million in 2000, Pabrai transitioned into investing, launching his investment funds in 1999.

Pabrai has built an impressive track record over more than two decades. His funds achieved cumulative returns of 517% net to investors versus 43% for the S&P 500 from 2000 to 2013, representing outperformance of 474 percentage points. Since inception, his funds have delivered annualized returns of approximately 25%, though recent years have shown more mixed performance relative to benchmarks.

Pabrai’s investment philosophy closely mirrors that of Warren Buffett, whom he famously paid $650,100 to have lunch with in 2007 alongside fellow investor Guy Spier.

You can watch Pabrai’s full Diary of a CEO interview below:

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

Fortune Global Forum

returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business.

Apply for an invitation.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

72法则 复利 投资 帕布莱 Rule of 72 Compound Interest Investing Pabrai
相关文章