cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 08月15日
Estimating Covariance for Global Minimum Variance Portfolio: A Decision-Focused Learning Approach
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本文提出决策聚焦学习(DFL)优化投资组合,克服传统方法在风险-收益权衡中的局限性,通过分析GMVP的梯度,实现更优的投资决策。

arXiv:2508.10776v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Portfolio optimization constitutes a cornerstone of risk management by quantifying the risk-return trade-off. Since it inherently depends on accurate parameter estimation under conditions of future uncertainty, the selection of appropriate input parameters is critical for effective portfolio construction. However, most conventional statistical estimators and machine learning algorithms determine these parameters by minimizing mean-squared error (MSE), a criterion that can yield suboptimal investment decisions. In this paper, we adopt decision-focused learning (DFL) - an approach that directly optimizes decision quality rather than prediction error such as MSE - to derive the global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP). Specifically, we theoretically derive the gradient of decision loss using the analytic solution of GMVP and its properties regarding the principal components of itself. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we show that prediction-focused estimation methods may fail to produce optimal allocations in practice, whereas DFL-based methods consistently deliver superior decision performance. Furthermore, we provide a comprehensive analysis of DFL's mechanism in GMVP construction, focusing on its volatility reduction capability, decision-driving features, and estimation characteristics.

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决策聚焦学习 投资组合优化 风险-收益权衡
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