⚡️ **电力需求激增威胁美国AI领先地位**：随着AI技术的飞速发展，数据中心对电力的需求呈指数级增长。目前，数据中心已占美国总用电量的6%，高盛预测到2030年这一比例将接近翻倍至11%。这种激增的电力需求正使美国电网面临严峻压力，尤其是在备用发电能力下降的情况下，可能成为制约其AI发展步伐的关键瓶颈。

📈 **美国AI基础设施优势与电力瓶颈的对比**：尽管美国在AI基础设施方面占据全球领先地位，拥有相当于其他主要经济体总和的数据中心容量，但其电力供应的紧张状况不容忽视。过去五年，美国峰值夏季备用发电能力已从26%降至19%，若AI持续高速增长，到本十年末可能跌破15%的临界水平。

🔋 **中国以充足电力储备应对AI竞赛**：与美国电网的收紧形成鲜明对比，中国正积极扩充能源储备。高盛预计，到2030年，中国将拥有约400吉瓦的有效备用电力容量，远超全球数据中心预期的总电力需求。中国通过发展可再生能源、天然气、核能和煤炭等多种能源，确保能源安全，这为其在AI竞赛中提供了强大的能源支撑。

💡 **能源供应成为AI竞赛的关键变量**：高盛报告和英伟达CEO黄仁勋的观点均强调，可靠且充足的电力供应将是影响AI竞赛走向的关键因素。电力基础设施的建设周期长且难以快速解决，这使得能源供应成为一个战略性挑战，尤其是在中美两国竞争日益激烈的背景下。

The US is leading the AI revolution, but power shortages could slow its progress, Goldman Sachs warns.Data centers already consume 6% of US electricity and could draw nearly twice that by 2030.China's massive expansion of spare power may give it a powerful edge in the global AI race.

The US is racing ahead in artificial intelligence, but its biggest obstacle is more than chips, rare earths, or talent — it's electricity, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.

The US power grid is already straining under the surge of data centers fueling AI models, with these massive facilities now accounting for about 6% of total US electricity demand.

That share is expected to nearly double to 11% by 2030, pushing parts of the country's grid past critical limits, Goldman's analysts estimate.

"As AI demands massive power, a reliable and ample power supply is likely to be a key factor shaping this race, especially because power infrastructure bottlenecks can be slow to solve," wrote Goldman's analysts.

The issue could slow the US's pace in the AI tech race, where it is a frontrunner.

The US leads the world in AI infrastructure, with 44% of global data center capacity — about as much as China, the EU, Japan, Korea, and India put together.

However, the US power market has been tightening, with US peak summer spare power generation capacity decreasing from 26% five years ago to 19% as demand from data centers rose.

By the end of the decade, this spare capacity could fall below the "critically tight" 15% level if AI growth continues at its current pace, Goldman's analysts estimate.

China powers ahead

While the US grid tightens, China has been quietly stockpiling energy.

Goldman projects that by 2030, the country's effective spare power capacity will reach around 400 gigawatts — more than three times the world's total expected data center power demand.

"We expect China's spare capacity to remain sufficient to accommodate data center power demand growth while supporting demand in other industries," Goldman's analysts wrote.

China's buildup follows an energy crunch in 2021 that led Beijing to ramp up power generation across renewables, natural gas, nuclear, and coal to ensure energy security.

The US, by contrast, is retiring coal plants faster than it's adding new natural gas or renewable capacity. Other issues that could limit data center growth in the US include lengthy project timelines and a global shortage of gas-powered turbines.

"Reliable and ample power supply is likely to be a key factor shaping this race," the analysts wrote, "especially because power infrastructure bottlenecks can be slow to solve."

Goldman's report came amid an intensifying race for artificial intelligence between the US and China.

Earlier this month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also mentioned energy as an issue that could hinder the US's AI development.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Huang noted a growing wave of AI regulations emerging across US states and warned that too many new rules could stifle innovation.

By contrast, he said China's government energy subsidies make it cheaper for local tech firms to power homegrown AI chips, as "power is free."