📈 50年抵押贷款争议：支持者认为能促进购房，反对者则担忧其对月供的有限影响以及可能推高房价。批评者指出，由于当前利率下大部分月供为利息，50年期贷款相比30年期贷款并不能显著降低月供，反而可能因刺激需求而导致房价上涨，尤其是在供给相对固定的情况下。

🏡 土地价值评估新思路：文章提出，解决房价问题的关键在于区分房屋和土地的价值。建议允许以房屋的市场价值（可无首付、无摊销）作为抵押，但强制要求全额支付土地的价值。房屋价值将通过标准方法评估，不包含土地成本，从而实现对土地稀缺性的价值体现。

🏘️ 市场调节与住房供给：通过强制支付土地价值，文章预测热门地区的房价将因此下降，而乡村地区的房价可能上涨。虽然短期内房屋交易量可能不变，但长期来看，这一机制有望促使新建房屋的价格能够覆盖其成本，从而保障并可能增加住房供给，解决“住房难负担”的问题。

Published on November 13, 2025 2:54 PM GMT

Epistemic Status: haven't worked through all the consequences here.

There's currently a big brouhaha going on in the interwebs about Trump's plan to allow 50 year mortgages.

Supporters claim that it'll help people buy homes.

Detractors point out that a 50 year mortgage doesn't actually reduce monthly payments that much compared to a 30 year one (because most of your payment at current rates is interest), and that insofar as it does, that just pushes house prices up since housing supply is mostly fixed in the short term (and long term is constrained more by regulation than the market).

Focusing on the second argument, the logical conclusion here is to ban mortgages entirely, since all making it easier to buy houses does is subsidise demand.

But that doesn't work either. Housing takes a certain amount to build, and if people can't afford that without mortgages, that's going to dry up or reduce new supply of houses.

It seems like the obvious solution is to allow getting a mortgage on the value of the house (even with no downpayment, even amortization free), but to require full payment on the value of the land. The value of the house, excluding the land, will be assessed using standard techniques as part of requesting a mortgage.

The effect is that houses in sought after areas become unaffordable, pulling down prices. Houses in rural areas become more easily affordable. Since supply of both is mostly fixed in the short term, the same number of houses end up changing hands in both areas, but urban buyers are saddled with less debt and rural buyers with more. However this all but guarantees that house prices in every area will be high enough to pay for new building.