Fortune | FORTUNE 11月07日 05:01
摩根大通CEO展望人工智能对未来工作的影响
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摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在迈阿密美洲商业论坛上预测,人工智能将在未来几十年内优化人们的工作安排,发达国家可能实现每周工作三天半。他指出,摩根大通已积极将人工智能应用于包括欺诈检测、法律审查和营销优化等多个领域,约有15万员工每周使用大型语言模型处理内部文件。戴蒙认为,虽然人工智能会取代部分工作岗位,但企业和政府需要提前规划再培训和收入保障等措施,以应对可能出现的社会问题。他还强调,人工智能的发展需要大量的资本和电力支持,投资者应谨慎评估相关投资。

🤖 摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙预测人工智能将在未来数十年内显著优化工作安排,发达国家有望实现每周工作三天半,提升生活质量。

🏢 摩根大通已大规模采用人工智能技术,约2000人致力于AI系统开发,15万员工每周利用大型语言模型处理内部文件,应用于欺诈检测、法律审查等多种场景。

⚠️ 戴蒙强调,人工智能在提高生产力的同时也会导致失业,因此企业和政府必须提前规划再培训、收入保障和岗位调动等措施,以避免社会动荡。

💡 他认为,人工智能的经济效益与互联网不同,其发展需要巨大的资本和电力投入,投资者应审慎评估相关基础设施建设的风险和回报,避免盲目投资。

🧑‍🏫 摩根大通甚至为高层管理人员开设人工智能培训课程,以弥合领导层对现有AI工具能力的认知差距,鼓励在各个业务领域积极部署和应用人工智能。

And at the America Business Forum in Miami on Thursday, the JPMorgan Chase CEO sketched a provocative horizon line: AI will optimize our work schedules within our lifetime. 

“It’s going to affect every application, every job, every customer interface,” Dimon said. “My guess is the developed world will be working three-and-a-half days a week in 20, 30, 40 years, and have wonderful lives.”

He isn’t speaking in hypotheticals. Dimon has turned JPMorgan into a live-fire AI lab. Roughly 2,000 people are building AI systems; about 150,000 employees use large language models every week on internal documents; and the bank has hundreds of use cases running, from fraud detection to legal review, reconciliations, and marketing optimization.

Dimon’s three-and-a-half-day forecast hinges on that cumulative productivity. As AI absorbs routine work, the same output may require fewer hours. But he’s adamant the transition won’t be painless. 

“It will eliminate jobs. People should stop sticking their heads in the sand,” he warned at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference, arguing companies and governments must plan for retraining, income assistance, redeployment, and, in some cases, early retirement to avoid a social backlash. The bank, he said, is building with that redeployment mindset.

He also stresses AI’s economics aren’t the same as the internet’s. The buildout is both capital- and power-hungry; some hyped projects “won’t get the power they need,” he said. Investors should underwrite data-center and AI infrastructure deal-by-deal, he added, noting who has revenue, who takes construction and technology risk, what happens if the chips or plants don’t perform—rather than buying the theme wholesale. In his words: Some AI efforts will be “in a bubble,” but in total, the technology “will probably pay off.”

Dimon has a consistent message to operators: Stop overintellectualizing model theology and deploy. 

“Use it… in any business,” he said.

JPMorgan is even running AI master classes for senior managers after finding many leaders at the company simply didn’t know what current tools could already do (One reaction Dimon quoted was: “I didn’t know it could read 100,000 documents.”).

All in all, the future of work may be shorter in hours but richer in value, if leaders do the hard parts now. That means modernizing data so AI can actually use it (“We spend a lot of money getting data into the proper format… We’re not measuring how much it costs,” Dimon said), investing through the power constraints, and building humane off-ramps for roles that will disappear. 

Dimon’s bet is that what machines remove, well-led institutions can remake: And that’s how you get to a three-and-a-half-day week without blowing up the social contract.

“You know, technology has downsides. It’s used by bad people,” Dimon said at the Forum. “But embrace it.” 

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人工智能 未来工作 摩根大通 杰米·戴蒙 技术变革
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