The Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close, and with the tropics quieting down for a winter slumber, the focus of forecasters turns to evaluating what worked and what did not during the preceding season.
This year, the answers are clear. Although Google DeepMind’s Weather Lab only started releasing cyclone track forecasts in June, the company’s AI forecasting service performed exceptionally well. By contrast, the Global Forecast System model, operated by the US National Weather Service and is based on traditional physics and runs on powerful supercomputers, performed abysmally.
The official data comparing forecast model performance will not be published by the National Hurricane Center for a few months. However, Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami, has already done some preliminary number crunching.
