Fortune | FORTUNE 22小时前
金融领袖警告股市可能大幅回调,亚洲欧洲股市应声下跌
index_new5.html
../../../zaker_core/zaker_tpl_static/wap/tpl_guoji1.html

 

多家金融界重量级人物近期发出了对股市可能大幅回调的警告,引发了全球市场的震动。高盛和摩根士丹利CEO均预测未来12-24个月内可能出现10-20%的股市下跌,瑞银董事长也对私人信贷市场潜在的系统性风险发出警示。这些言论以及美联储官员对12月是否降息的犹豫态度,加上美国政府关门和经济数据疲软,共同导致了亚洲和欧洲股市的显著下跌,投资者情绪趋于谨慎,纷纷抛售高风险资产。

📈 **市场普遍担忧股市回调**:高盛和摩根士丹利CEO均公开表示,预计未来12至24个月内,股市可能出现10%至20%的回调。这一预测极大地影响了投资者情绪,导致亚洲和欧洲股市出现显著下跌。

🏦 **私人信贷市场风险显现**:瑞银董事长警告,由于监管不足,保险业务可能面临系统性风险。保险公司是私人信贷市场的重要参与者,而该市场的贷款方可能利用宽松的评级标准来低估风险,这增加了市场的不确定性。

📉 **美联储政策前景不明朗**:两位美联储官员表示,对于是否会在12月再次降息持不确定态度。这种政策前景的模糊性,增加了市场对未来经济走向的担忧,进一步加剧了股市的下行压力。

📊 **经济数据与政策不确定性叠加**:美国政府的持续关门导致经济数据发布受阻,10月份的ISM制造业指数显示经济收缩,低于预期。这些因素与金融领袖的警告相结合,共同导致了投资者信心下降和市场动荡。

Stock markets across Asia and Europe fell sharply this morning after the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both said they expected a major correction in the stock markets. They were joined by the chair of UBS, who warned about looming systemic risk in the private credit market. At the same time, two members of the Fed said they were undecided about whether they would deliver another interest rate cut in December.

This morning, investors appear to be taking that advice to heart. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.41% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 1.11% before lunch, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave up 1.74%. South Korea got hit the worst: The KOSPI was down 2.37%.

Prior to the opening of the market in New York, S&P 500 futures are down more than a full percentage point.

Wall Street expects tech stocks to take a hammering this morning. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.35%. Palantir is down nearly 7% in overnight trading. Tesla is down 2.45% premarket. Meta is down 1.22%.

The bloodbath began at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit in Hong Kong. On stage, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said, “It’s likely there’ll be a 10 to 20% drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months.”

On the same panel, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick agreed: “We should also welcome the possibility that there would be drawdowns, 10 to 15% drawdowns that are not driven by some sort of macro cliff effect,” he said.

Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, Lisa Shalett, issued a note to clients yesterday arguing that now was the time to sell speculative tech stocks. “With more questions than answers, we maintain maximum diversification. Consider taking profits in high-beta, small/micro-cap, speculative and unprofitable equities and redeploying to large-cap core and quality stocks, including the ‘Mag 7’ and GenAI beneficiaries in financials, health care and energy,” she wrote.

At the same conference but speaking on a different panel, Chair of UBS Colm Kelleher warned that “If you look at the insurance business there is a looming systemic risk coming through because of lack of effective regulation,” he said. Insurance companies are large buyers of private credit—loans to companies that pay higher interest rates than government bonds but carry higher risks. Kelleher said that the providers of these loans were using the most lenient ratings agencies they could find globally, thus underplaying how risky or illiquid these loans could become. Fortune reported this weekend that loan originators were imposing increasingly strict legal terms into private credit deals, a sign that lenders sense trouble on the horizon.

The day before, two members of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting Open Markets Committee both said they were undecided about whether to continue lowering interest rates in December. Fed Governor Lisa Cook told the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., that “As always, I determine my monetary policy stance each meeting based on the incoming data from a wide variety of sources, the evolution of my outlook, and the balance of risks,” she said. “Every meeting, including December’s, is a live meeting.”

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee, talking to Yahoo Finance, said “I’m not decided going into the December meeting” and “my threshold for cutting is a little bit higher than it was at the last two meetings.”

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown added to the economic gloom. Investors are flying blind—U.S. trade data should have been published today but won’t be. Instead, investors are looking at less reliable private data. The ISM manufacturing index for October signalled a contraction at 48.7%, well under the consensus expectation of 49.3%.

Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:

    S&P 500 futures were down 1.16% this morning. The last session closed up 0.17%. STOXX Europe 600 was down 1.41% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 1.11% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.74%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.75%. The South Korea KOSPI was down 2.37%. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.64%. Bitcoin was down at $103.6K.

Fish AI Reader

Fish AI Reader

AI辅助创作,多种专业模板,深度分析,高质量内容生成。从观点提取到深度思考,FishAI为您提供全方位的创作支持。新版本引入自定义参数,让您的创作更加个性化和精准。

FishAI

FishAI

鱼阅,AI 时代的下一个智能信息助手,助你摆脱信息焦虑

联系邮箱 441953276@qq.com

相关标签

股市回调 金融市场 美联储 私人信贷 经济风险 Stock Market Correction Financial Markets Federal Reserve Private Credit Economic Risk
相关文章