文章探讨了人工智能GPU制造过程中极其脆弱的供应链，并指出欧盟在该链条中的核心地位。关键环节包括德国的蔡司（提供EUV光刻机光学元件）、荷兰的ASML（生产EUV光刻机）、台湾的台积电（生产芯片）以及美国的英伟达（设计芯片）。文章强调，欧盟拥有对EUV光刻机和相关光学元件的出口控制权，这意味着欧盟的默许是GPT-6等AI芯片得以生产的先决条件。尽管此举可能不会立即停止芯片生产，但长期而言，出口禁令将不可避免地导致AI芯片生产的停滞。作者认为，尽管欧盟的官僚体系可能显得臃肿，但其在全球AI芯片供应链中的这种潜在影响力是一张重要的、不容忽视的王牌。

💡 AI GPU供应链的脆弱性：文章指出，AI GPU的制造过程依赖于一个环节众多且缺乏冗余的供应链。从提供关键光学元件的德国蔡司，到生产EUV光刻机的荷兰ASML，再到芯片代工厂台湾台积电，以及芯片设计公司美国英伟达，任何一个环节的断裂都可能对整个AI发展造成严重影响。

🇪🇺 欧盟的出口控制权：文章强调，欧盟通过其境内的蔡司和ASML公司，掌握着对AI芯片生产至关重要的EUV光刻机及其核心光学元件的出口控制权。这意味着，欧盟在某种程度上能够决定AI芯片的生产进程，即使是先进的GPT-6也无法绕开欧盟的潜在许可。

⏳ 出口禁令的长远影响：尽管欧盟不一定会立即实施出口禁令，但文章指出，一旦欧洲决定限制EUV光刻机的出口，这将对全球AI芯片的长期供应造成毁灭性打击。虽然现有设备可以继续运行一段时间，但对维修零件和新机器的需求将最终导致生产停滞。

🌐 欧盟的战略影响力：作者认为，尽管欧盟的官僚体系可能给人以低效的印象，但其在全球AI技术发展中拥有着不容忽视的战略影响力。这种通过供应链掌握的关键控制力，是一张“底牌”，对全球AI格局具有深远意义。

Published on November 3, 2025 4:54 PM GMT

Note: I'm writing every day in November, see my blog for disclaimers.

It's well-known that the process for building AI GPUs has a hilariously fragile supply chain. There are multiple links in the chain that have no redundancy:

- Carl Zeiss (Germany): Supplies optics/lenses for EUV lithography machines
- ASML (Netherlands): Produces the EUV lithography machines that make the chips (using Carl Zeiss' optics)
- TSMC (Taiwan): Produces the chips (using ASML's machines)
- Nvidia (USA): Designs the AI chips

Critically, two of these companies are based in the EU, meaning that no matter how much e/acc twitter might laugh at the EU's GDP or bureaucracy, GPT-6 is not getting built without an implicit sign-off from the EU.

If the EU felt the need, they could halt export of EUV lithography machines out of ASML and also halt export of any EUV-empowering optics from Carl Zeiss. These companies are within the EU, the EU can do it.

This wouldn't halt AI chip production immediately, I'm sure the existing lithography machines would keep running for a while. I'm unsure of how much regular maintenance or repair parts these machines need from ASML employees, but I'm certain it's non-zero. So an EU-ban on exporting EUV lithography wouldn't halt chip production immediately, but it would inevitably bring it to a halt over time.

Banning the export of EUV machines would be a gutsy move, for sure, but it's entirely possible. And as tensions raise, it only become more likely.

Not many countries have the ability to hold the AI-capabilities world hostage, but through a bizarre twist of fate, the EU is able to do just that. I'm unsure of whether they're aware of the power they have, given how bloated their bureaucracy appears from the outside. But this is an ace-up-their-sleeves that 1. exists, 2. could be played, and 3. isn't going away any time soon.
 

Discuss