Traders on the prediction-market platform Kalshi are now assigning a meaningful probability to the scenario in which all three major Election Day winners come from the Democratic Party.
The prediction market platform reflects speculative wagers, not how voters will actually cast their ballots on Nov. 4.
Traders place the odds of cemocratic socialist Zohran Mamdani winning the New York mayoral race at 92% while former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent, follows as the next most likely contender, with Kalshi bettors assigning him an 8% chance of clinching the city’s top office.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trails at 1%.
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The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $71.5 million.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist upstart, has placed affordability at the forefront of his campaign to helm America’s largest city.
But his proposals have rattled Wall Street, where executives have emerged as some of the loudest critics of an agenda that includes free buses, city-owned grocery stores and rent freezes for rent-stabilized tenants.
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The clash underscores a widening divide between progressive visions for the city and the financial sector that has long powered it.
Mayor Eric Adams ended his re-election campaign five weeks before Election Day. Adams announced his decision to exit the mayoral race in a nearly nine-minute video posted on social media.
ERIC ADAMS DROPS OUT OF NYC MAYORAL RACE AS MAMDANI GAINS GROUND
Across the Hudson River in New Jersey, traders on the Kalshi prediction market give Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, ex-prosecutor and sitting congresswoman, an 86% chance of winning. Meanwhile, traders assign a 16% chance for Republican contender Jack Ciattarelli.
A little more than $11.8 million has been wagered on this market.
In the final days of the campaign, Sherrill appeared alongside Democratic Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland — both widely seen as potential 2028 presidential contenders.
Additionally, former President Barack Obama endorsed Sherrill's gubernatorial campaign on Friday.
And in Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger is expected to win the office over her GOP challenger Winsome Earle-Sears.
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Traders on Kalshi place Spanberger at a 96% chance of winning the Virginia governor race and Earle-Sears at a 4% chance.
The market has recorded $3.6 million in trading volume, according to Kalshi data.
President Donald Trump has not endorsed Earle-Sears, who is currently Virginia's lieutenant governor.
