Fortune | FORTUNE 11月03日 23:41
美国家庭债务增长引发担忧,AI技术或成经济增长新动力
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美国国家债务问题日益严峻,已引起华尔街、零售投资者、常春藤盟校经济学家及华盛顿政策制定者的广泛担忧。高盛CEO大卫·所罗门指出,关键在于债务与GDP之比,目前该比例已达125%,预计2055年将升至156%。所罗门认为,解决之道在于提高经济增长率,特别是AI技术有望显著提升生产力,为经济注入新动能。若增长停滞,恐将面临“清算”。近期数据显示,二季度GDP增长3.8%,为经济增长提供了希望。所罗门强调,虽然债务可能不会演变成危机,但过度依赖财政刺激已成为常态,需要警惕。

📈 **债务与GDP比率引发担忧:** 美国国家债务已达38万亿美元,债务与GDP之比是衡量偿债能力的关键指标。目前该比例约为125%,预计到2055年将升至156%,这引起了包括高盛CEO在内的多方人士的警惕,他们担心未来偿还债务的能力。

🚀 **AI技术驱动经济增长:** 高盛CEO大卫·所罗门认为,提高经济增长率是应对债务问题的关键。他特别指出,人工智能(AI)技术有望通过提升企业生产力,为美国经济带来更高的增长轨迹,从而为解决债务问题提供新的可能性。

📉 **增长停滞的潜在风险:** 所罗门警告,如果美国经济不能持续提升增长水平,而是沿着现有轨迹发展,那么“清算”的时刻将会到来。他强调,3%和2%的经济增长率之间存在巨大差异,足以影响处理债务问题的能力。

💡 **非传统收入来源的探讨:** 文章提及了特朗普政府曾提出的通过“黄金卡”签证计划向富裕移民收取高额费用来筹集资金以偿还国债的设想,尽管这是一种非传统的方案,但也反映了对多元化收入来源以缓解债务压力的思考。

Between Wall Street, retail investors, Ivy League economists, and Washington policymakers, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who isn’t nervous about America’s national debt burden. Their concern is for the day when confidence in the bond market wanes, when buyers of America’s borrowing question whether Uncle Sam can really pay his debts.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is among those concerned about the U.S.’s $38 trillion national debt problem, joining the ranks of JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Fed chairman Jerome Powell, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio, and increasingly, politicians on Capitol Hill.

Indeed, like his counterparts, Solomon isn’t necessarily worried about the value of debt America has accumulated, rather its debt-to-GDP ratio. This barometer indicates to the market how much the U.S. is adding to its debt obligations in relation to how quickly its economy is growing—and thus its ability to pay back the loans. At present, that balance sits at around 125% according to Treasury data, but is expected to hit 156% by 2055, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The balance of debt to GDP presents two options to reduce the benchmark: either cutting spending or growing the economy. The latter is seen as preferable by many, but potentially an optimistic choice that doesn’t address the problem of fiscal overstretch.

Solomon said the current environment, with the promise of AI boosting Wall Street to new highs, the growth option is looking more and more realistic. Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. last week, the banking titan said: “The path out is a growth path. The difference between compounding growth of 3% and 2% is monstrous in terms of dealing with this issue, so there’s a lot of discussion about running … real growth plat.

“I think we have some things that are going to give us a better opportunity to have a higher growth trajectory, particularly … technology, AI getting embedded into the enterprise and the productivity opportunity from that,” he continued. “But if we continue on the current course and we don’t take the growth level up, there will be a reckoning.”

According to the latest data, there’s reason for Solomon to hope. Per the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ most recent estimates (last shared on Sept. 25 as no new releases are being shared during the government shutdown) GDP in the second quarter was up 3.8%.

An embedded behavior

Solomon, who has led Goldman Sachs since 2018, added national debt doesn’t have to become a “crisis.” That being said, he did say many of his contacts in the business community are worried about the level of debt and the behavior that now seems to be the norm.

“I think people are worried about … the fact that we’ve reached a point—and by the way, this is true in the United States, but it’s true in every other developed economy—where … fiscal stimulus and aggressive fiscal play is really just kind of embedded in the way these democratic economies are operating, and it’s accelerated meaningfully in the last five years,” he added.

Since President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, economists have highlighted the unusual ways the administration is rebalancing the books. While chief among them is raising revenues through tariffs, Trump has also suggested raising funds to pay off national debt through a “gold card” visa scheme which would charge wealth immigrants $5 million for green card privileges “plus a route to citizenship.”

The president said in February he believed he could avert the potential debt crisis entirely with gold cards, saying: “A million cards would be worth $5 trillion, and if you sell 10 million of the cards that’s a total of $50 trillion. Well, we have $35 trillion in debt, so that would be nice.”

He noted he would have $15 trillion “left over” if he managed to sell 10 million cards, adding: “It may be earmarked for deficit reduction, but it actually could be more money than that.”

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美国国债 债务与GDP比率 AI技术 经济增长 财政刺激 华尔街 US National Debt Debt-to-GDP Ratio AI Technology Economic Growth Fiscal Stimulus Wall Street
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