Fortune | FORTUNE 10月30日 23:09
年轻消费者因经济压力减少外出就餐
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年轻消费者,特别是25至35岁的千禧一代和Z世代,正因失业、学生贷款偿还增加以及实际工资增长缓慢等经济压力,减少在外就餐的频率。他们并非转向其他快餐品牌,而是整体上减少了外出就餐的次数,转而选择在家自己烹饪。这种趋势也影响了收入低于10万美元的消费者群体。多家快餐连锁店,包括麦当劳,已观察到这种“两级经济”现象,即高收入人群仍能负担外出就餐,而中低收入群体则明显收紧开支。Z世代尤其受到影响,他们正改变就餐习惯以节省开支,例如分享开胃菜或选择儿童餐。数据显示,Z世代的信用评分下降,且在住房市场和就业方面面临挑战,这些都削弱了他们的消费能力。

💰 **经济逆风影响年轻消费者外出就餐频率**: Chipotle首席执行官表示,25至35岁的年轻消费者正因失业、学生贷款偿还和工资增长缓慢等因素,减少了在外就餐的次数。他们并非转向竞争对手,而是整体减少了外出就餐,转为在家用餐。收入低于10万美元的Chipotle客户群体(占其消费者基数的40%)也同样感受到了经济压力,并减少了消费。

⚖️ **“两级经济”现象显现**: 包括麦当劳在内的多家快餐连锁店观察到一种“两级经济”的趋势。高收入人群(年收入超过10万美元)的消费能力依然稳健,而中低收入消费者则面临不同的经济状况,消费更加谨慎。这种分化影响了快餐行业的整体客流量。

📉 **Z世代调整消费习惯以应对成本压力**: Z世代消费者正通过分食开胃菜、点儿童餐等方式改变外出就餐的习惯以节省开支。一份调查显示,40%的Z世代和千禧一代租房者为了支付月供而减少外出就餐,超过20%的人甚至跳餐以维持生计。Z世代的信用评分下降,并且在住房和就业方面面临挑战,这些都削弱了他们的购买力。

🚀 **求职和职业发展受阻,影响消费能力**: 年轻人面临“工作保卫战”和对AI取代入门级职位的担忧,导致他们错失了通过跳槽来提升收入的关键职业发展期。摩根大通的研究表明,25至29岁的年轻人在过去十年中的收入增长最慢,这进一步降低了他们的消费能力,表明他们的担忧远不止于食物选择。

Even fast-casual dining may be too much of a financial burden for younger generations.

Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said young diners between the ages of 25 and 35 are cutting back on dining at the Mexican-inspired fast-casual chain. But these millennial and Gen Z customers are not snubbing Chipotle for other fast-food spots; they’ve stopped dining out as frequently altogether.

“This group is facing several headwinds, including unemployment, increased student loan repayment, and slower real wage growth,” Boatwright told investors at the company’s earnings presentation on Wednesday. “We’re not losing them to the competition. We’re losing them to grocery and food at home.” 

Boatwright noted Chipotle customers making less than $100,000—about 40% of Chipotle’s consumer base—are also pulling back. 

“They feel the pinch, we feel the pullback from them as well,” he concluded.

Chipotle cut its same-store sales forecast for its third consecutive quarter as quarterly revenue missed expectations and traffic declined by 0.8%, also its third straight dip.

Two-tier economy

Other fast-food chains have noted the emergence of a two-tier economy of high-income earners shelling out for meals out while low-income earners tighten their belts. This includes McDonald’s, which has been largely propped up by customers willing to spend more money at the chain. 

”There’s a lot of commentary around, ‘What’s the state of the economy, how’s it doing right now?’” McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC last month. “And what we see is, it’s really kind of a two-tier economy. If you’re upper-income, earning over $100,000, things are good…What we see with middle- and lower-income consumers, it’s actually a different story.”

Fast-food restaurants have also made a concerted effort to attract Gen Z diners, including McDonald’s adult Happy Meals, Taco Bell’s customizable drinks, and KFC spinoff Saucy’s flight of chicken tender dipping sauces. Chipotle has made similar attempts with limited-time offers of novelty condiments, with some success.

“Through our research, we found that over 90% of Gen Z consumers say they would visit a restaurant just for a new sauce,” Boatwright said on Wednesday.

Chipotle did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Gen Z cutting back on dining out

Amid an affordability crisis, it may take more than Chipotle’s Adobo Ranch or Red Chimichurri to get young customers into stores more often. Gen Z in particular has changed how they dine out to save money, taking advantage of cheaper menu options like splitting appetizers and ordering kids’ meals.

Dining out is coming at the expense of Gen Z and millennials, who are trying to pay their bills. A Redfin survey of 4,000 U.S. homeowners and renters, conducted in August, found 40% of Gen Z and millennial renters were eating out less to afford monthly payments. More than 20% reported skipping meals entirely to make ends meet.

Mounting data may confirm Boatwright’s suspicions about Gen Z’s financial burdens. Gen Z’s credit scores experienced the steepest annual drop of any generation since 2020, in part because of the return of student loan payments, according to a recent FICO report. And beyond grappling with a stubbornly expensive housing market, young generations are struggling to get or maintain jobs to advance their careers. 

A JPMorganChase Institute report released Wednesday found that young people aged 25 to 29 had the lowest income growth over the past decade. The unemployment rate for 16-to-24-year-olds reached about 10.5% in August, nearly three times that of their millennial and Gen X counterparts, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data

In an era of “job hugging” in a low-fire, low-hiring labor market and anxiety around AI displacing entry-level workers, Gen Z is missing out on a key period of career advancement that comes from switching jobs to make more money, JPMorganChase noted in the report. This decreases their spending power—and makes it clear their worries go beyond whether they want carnitas or chicken on their burrito bowls.

“We’re already seeing that young people are having a hard time getting a foothold on the homeownership ladder,” George Eckerd, wealth and markets research director for JPMorganChase Institute, told Fortune. “They’re delaying home purchases because they need to climb further up their career ladder to be able to afford it all, and that career ladder is getting flatter.”

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年轻消费者 经济压力 外出就餐 Z世代 千禧一代 两级经济 Chipotle McDonald's 消费趋势 Young Consumers Economic Pressure Dining Out Gen Z Millennials Two-Tier Economy Chipotle McDonald's Consumer Trends
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