A new chill is sweeping through Florida’s sunny real estate market — and it’s coming from the north.
Canadian homeowners, long among the biggest foreign investors in U.S. property, are now selling off their Florida homes amid mounting trade friction, tariff fears and a weakened Canadian dollar that’s making ownership more expensive than ever.
"We've had a huge uptick in Canadian clients of ours who are calling us to actually list their properties just as our season is starting," Douglas Elliman’s Florida director of luxury sales Senada Adzem told Fox News Digital. "They feel it's the perfect time for them to sell."
Historically, Canadians make up about 13% of all foreign buyers of U.S. real estate. In recent months, there’s been a decline in Canadian buyer searches in Florida, according to Realtor.com. Adzem, who’s seen a surge in calls from her Canadian clients, notes three primary reasons for wanting to leave the Sunshine State.
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"[Number] one is increased costs of holding Florida real estate. Number two, I feel like the trade tensions and also tremendous volatility that we're seeing with exchange rates between the U.S. and Canadian dollar have also impacted that decision. And then, very importantly, on a personal note, they feel like there is this perception that they don't feel as welcome in the United States," she explained.
"I always reassure them that that is absolutely not the case, but I think sometimes perception feels like reality."
Most recently, President Donald Trump called off trade negotiations with Canada after it used former President Ronald Reagan’s words about tariffs as a swipe against Trump’s policies and Canada championed some protectionist policies of its own.
Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports in response — on top of an already existing 35% levy, 25% automotive surtax, 40% transshipment penalty and new immigration registration rules for Canadians in the U.S.
"When we're speaking to our Canadian clients, they feel that overall tension between Canada and the United States as it relates to negotiations and economic policies make them feel that there is definitely a concern," Adzem noted.
Volatile exchange rates between the U.S. and Canadian dollar are also weighing heavily, with one Canadian dollar worth about 72 U.S. cents as of Wednesday.
"While they usually cite the tariffs on steel and all of the Canadian products that America and Americans buy, they just feel that overall tensions will have an impact on the Canadian economy, which then leads to uncertainty in terms of how they invest their money, how they spend their money," Adzem said. "So I would say that different aspects of trade negotiations have definitely impacted the overall sentiment when it comes to volatility, as well as uncertainty."
"Money talks, right?" she added. "So when it comes down to the costs of carrying U.S. real estate, particularly when they have to pay with Canadian dollars, which has had a lot of fluctuations against American dollars … a lot of the snowbirds we’ve worked with feel like it’s just gotten quite costly to continue enjoying all of their winters here in Florida."
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Keeping trade tensions in mind, Adzem said her high-net-worth clients are strategically repositioning their assets as they consider selling their Florida properties.
"They first consult with different advisors, not just real estate advisors, but also investment advisors, and then discern how everything impacts them on a personal and financial level," she said. "And the way it translates into their real estate decisions is that they decide how they will prioritize and balance their lifestyle versus the economics."
"Regardless [of] whether they're from Ontario, whether they're from Quebec, they have one thing in common – they like to feel that they're making decisions proactively for themselves and their families, versus to wait and react and just see how things will unfold and develop on their own," Adzem expanded.
This new wave of Canadian sellers could change the landscape of South Florida’s market, especially with increased inventory.
"The prices will remain very similar in terms of general aggregate prices … And, actually, having more supply on the sales side will be important for us," Adzem said. "We need more inventory. While we were hoping to get more inventory during the summer, we didn't get as much … That's going to satisfy the demand from the domestic buyers, mostly from California and New York."
Adzem also dismissed fears of oversaturation, believing there’s still room for growth before hitting that tipping point.
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"That's the million-dollar question," she said. "We're anticipating continued demand. And we feel that the governor of Florida has really stepped up in terms of helping to continue the development of infrastructure in Florida to accommodate a lot of the new buyers coming in."
"I call it a realignment … Real estate is all about emotion, and what we know for a fact is that once people feel more settled and they feel more certain, they'll continue to want to buy."
FOX Business’ Diana Stancy contributed to this report.
