Fortune | FORTUNE 10月30日 12:38
美联储暗示2025年加息可能暂停,加密货币市场小幅下跌
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周三,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示2025年10月的25个基点降息可能是当年的最后一次,导致加密货币市场小幅下跌。比特币在过去24小时内下跌1.6%,以太坊下跌约2%。尽管市场出现波动,但分析师对加密货币的未来持谨慎乐观态度,认为宽松的货币政策对长期价格走势有利,前提是宏观经济前景稳定。此次下跌幅度小于10月10日的闪崩事件,当时美国总统特朗普对华贸易言论引发了加密货币的大幅下跌。目前市场趋于稳定,交易员正密切关注中美两国领导人的会晤。宏观经济背景被认为是当前加密货币周期的主要驱动因素。

📉 美联储主席鲍威尔的言论引发市场担忧:鲍威尔暗示2025年10月的25个基点降息可能是当年的最后一次,这导致了包括比特币和以太坊在内的加密货币市场出现小幅下跌。这一表态表明货币政策的走向可能比预期更为谨慎,影响了投资者的情绪。

⚖️ 宏观经济环境是加密货币市场的主要驱动力:分析师指出,当前加密货币周期的主要驱动因素是波动的宏观经济背景。尽管市场在近期的大幅波动后趋于稳定,但短期风险承受能力有所降低。宽松的货币条件对加密货币价格有积极影响,但前提是宏观经济前景不会出现严重问题。

💥 近期闪崩事件与市场复苏:加密货币市场在10月10日经历了一次大规模闪崩,抹去了超过190亿美元的头寸,这与美国总统特朗普关于对华关税的言论有关。此后,特朗普的态度有所软化,市场也随之稳定。交易员们正密切关注中美两国领导人的会晤,以评估其对市场的影响。

📈 分析师对未来持谨慎乐观态度:尽管存在短期波动,一些加密货币分析师对市场持谨慎乐观态度。他们认为,只要宏观经济前景不出现严重的、未被市场预见的问题,宽松的货币政策将有利于比特币等加密货币价格的上涨。市场在经历10月10日的清算事件后正在恢复,但短期风险偏好已受影响。

The crypto markets fell slightly on Wednesday after Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve Board, hinted that an October interest rate cut of 25 points may be the last such cut of 2025. Bitcoin dipped 1.6% over the past 24 hours to trade at nearly $111,000, according to data from Binance. Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was down about 2% to a bit more than $3,900. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies dropped 1.8%. 

While Powell said there were “strongly differing views” among his colleagues about future rate cuts, he added during a press conference that “there’s a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle.”

The S&P 500 ended Wednesday essentially flat, the Dow Jones was down about 0.2%, and the Nasdaq finished almost 0.6% up.

Despite the wavering markets, some crypto analysts were cautiously optimistic. “Easing monetary conditions are supportive of upward price momentum for BTC [Bitcoin] so long as the macroeconomic outlook doesn’t pose severe issues unforeseen by the market,” Alex Blume, founder and CEO of the crypto asset manager Two Prime, said in an email to Fortune.

The dip in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday was smaller compared to a recent flash crash on Oct. 10 that wiped out more than $19 billion in positions in the largest crypto liquidation event ever tracked by the crypto analytics firm CoinGlass. 

The crash coincided with President Donald Trump’s threat to hit China with a 100% tariff “over and above” existing tariffs, causing Bitcoin to shed more than $200 million in market cap and plummet nearly 10% in price. Ethereum experienced an even more drastic downturn, tanking almost 14%.

Just days after the flash crash, Trump walked back his aggressive rhetoric. “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” he posted on Truth Social. “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

The markets—including cryptocurrency prices—have since stabilized, and traders are anxiously awaiting the results of a Thursday meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, the president of China. Since Oct. 10, Bitcoin has traded around $110,000 and Ethereum has hovered near $4,000.

“The fluctuating macroeconomic backdrop is [the] dominant driver of this crypto cycle,” Thomas Perfumo, global economist at the crypto exchange Kraken, said in an email to Fortune, adding later: “While the market is stabilizing after the Oct. 10 liquidation event, this ‘reset’ event certainly reduced short-term risk tolerance.”

On the new Fortune Crypto Playbook vodcast, Fortune

’s senior crypto experts decode the biggest forces shaping crypto today.

Watch or listen now

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加密货币 美联储 利率 比特币 以太坊 宏观经济 地缘政治 Cryptocurrency Federal Reserve Interest Rates Bitcoin Ethereum Macroeconomics Geopolitics
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