Fortune | FORTUNE 10月29日 23:51
巨额财富转移与国家财政
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未来几十年,全球将迎来巨额财富转移,估计数万亿美元的资产将由老一代传承给下一代。这一趋势不仅将改变无数人的个人财务状况,也可能为一些发达国家提供解决高额国债问题的契机。UBS的分析师预测,政府可能会寻求利用这部分财富来平衡财政收支。与此同时,女性在财富转移中的作用日益凸显,她们的投资方式可能对长期资本成本和实际经济产生影响。文章还探讨了美国庞大的国债问题,以及包括特朗普政府提出的“黄金卡”计划在内的各种潜在解决方案,这些方案虽然“奇特”,但可能为增加国家收入带来新的思路。

💰 **巨额财富转移的规模与影响**:未来20至30年内,预计将有高达124万亿美元的财富从老一代传承给下一代,其中婴儿潮一代是历史上最富有的群体。这笔巨额财富的转移将深刻影响个人财务,并可能成为一些发达国家解决高额国债问题的关键。UBS模型显示,未来20年将有超过80万亿美元易手,政府很可能介入以利用这部分财富来支持其债务。

📈 **女性在财富转移中的新角色与投资行为**:随着女性继承和掌控的财富增加,她们的投资方式可能会对经济产生实质性影响。研究表明,女性投资者倾向于更少情绪化,进行更多研究,并长期持有投资。这可能导致更复杂的、现实世界的投资项目在未来获得更低的资本成本,因为女性将成为财富的新主人。

⚖️ **国家债务挑战与创新性解决方案**:美国等主要经济体面临着巨大的国债压力,问题不仅在于债务总额,还在于其快速增长的借贷成本。文章探讨了政府平衡账目的多种选择,包括利用财富转移的资金。此外,还提及了特朗普政府提出的“黄金卡”计划等“奇特”的收入增加方式,这些方法虽然非传统,但可能为解决国家债务问题带来新的视角和机会。

If you’re eyeing the $80 trillion promise of the Great Wealth Transfer and wondering what it may do for your personal finances, you’re not the only one. Governments are asking themselves the same, according to UBS.

The eye-watering sums due to change hands via inheritance in the coming decades, changing the financial fortunes of millions of people. But it could also help rectify the fiscal trajectories of some of the world’s most advanced nations. Those funds, UBS says, could be used to balance the books for countries with high levels of unsustainable national debt.

Studies have found that over the next 20 to 30 years as much as $124 trillion will be passed down from older generations to their younger counterparts. The Baby Boomers—people born between 1946 and 1964—are the wealthiest generation in history. As these individuals begin passing on, sums will go immediately to their Gen X, Millennial, and Gen Z successors, and some cash will go to spouses.

But UBS’s Paul Donovan believes governments will want to add their names to the list of recipients. He said: “At UBS, our modeling suggests that over the next 20 years, over $80 trillion of wealth will change hands.

“The change in wealth comes at a time when many governments around the world have high debt and deficits. It seems unrealistic to suppose that governments will just sit idly by as this wealth moves around. We would expect governments to attempt to mobilize that wealth to help fund their debt, but in doing so that denies private sector investment access to some of those funds.”

Indeed, a study from JP Morgan earlier this month found that the women expecting to receive a spousal inheritance over the coming years—expected to be around $9 trillion—plan to invest it in the stock market. Part of the reason they’re comfortable investing the money is because they’re not reliant on it to achieve their financial goals, with three in four women saying they’re well on track to achieve their financial milestones without receiving any inheritance from family or spouses.

The very fact that women will have power over such sums has an impact on the real economy, added Donovan: “Women invest differently from men. On average, women tend to be much less emotional investors: They do more research and when they do invest, they tend to stick to the investment over the longer term. That means that longer term, more complicated real world investment projects may experience a lower cost of capital in the future, with women being the new owners of wealth.”

The national debt question

Much attention has been focused on the budget deficit in the U.S., the world’s largest economy. Economists aren’t worried about the volume of government debt—which recently hit $38 trillion—more how quickly it is accruing borrowing costs with no sign of slowing spending.

There will be a moment of reckoning, analysts are convinced, when either bond markets bow out of buying any more U.S. debt because they believe the path is unsustainable, or the central bank is forced to intervene with quantitive easing—thus lowering the value of the debt.

Governments have a range of options (including chasing some funds in the Great Wealth Transfer) to to balance the books. And economists have been both bemused and pleasantly surprised by the solutions proposed by the Trump camp. For example, Trump has touted a “Gold Card” plan, a visa policy which would charge rich immigrants $5 million for a green card “plus a route to citizenship.”

“A million cards would be worth $5 trillion, and if you sell 10 million of the cards that’s a total of $50 trillion. Well, we have $35 trillion in debt, so that would be nice,” Trump said. He noted that he would have $15 trillion “left over” if he managed to sell 10 million cards, adding: “It may be earmarked for deficit reduction, but it actually could be more money than that.” 

While Trump’s tariff plans have proved unpopular with foreign governments, economists nonetheless welcome the “peculiar” methods to increase America’s income. As Wharton professor Joao Gomes previously told Fortune: “You can also not deny that [Trump and his administration] bring strange forms of revenue that do change the debt picture.”

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财富转移 国家债务 经济 投资 女性投资者 Great Wealth Transfer National Debt Economy Investment Women Investors
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