Fortune | FORTUNE 10月29日 04:18
经济不确定性下企业招聘与裁员现状
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在全球经济前景不明朗的背景下,许多企业处于“不招聘也不裁员”的观望状态,仅保留少数关键岗位的招聘,甚至全面暂停。与此同时,大规模裁员事件频发,加剧了各行业的员工焦虑。部分公司将此归因于特朗普政府的关税政策以及消费者支出变化导致的运营成本上升。另一些企业则进行更广泛的组织架构调整,或如亚马逊般将资金转向人工智能等战略投资。有分析指出,人工智能的“吸金”效应可能间接导致工作岗位的减少,反映了企业在就业与基础设施投资之间的权衡。联邦雇员也面临不确定性,政府部门的数千个工作岗位被削减,部分员工因政府停摆而面临无薪困境,整体就业市场稳定性受到质疑。

📈 **招聘与裁员并存的复杂就业市场:** 尽管经济不确定性导致部分企业采取“不招聘也不裁员”的策略,但大规模裁员现象并未停止,例如亚马逊裁员1.4万人、UPS裁员3.4万人、Target裁员1800人等。这种现象反映了企业在成本控制、战略调整和市场变化下的复杂决策,整体就业市场呈现出一种观望与收缩并存的局面。

🤖 **人工智能投资与就业的权衡:** 一些公司,如亚马逊和Lufthansa Group,正将大量资金投入人工智能(AI)和数字化转型。虽然AI本身不直接取代工作,但其高昂的研发和应用成本可能迫使企业在其他领域进行成本削减,从而间接影响就业岗位。这表明企业在追求技术进步的同时,也在权衡其对劳动力市场的潜在影响。

🏛️ **外部因素与内部调整双重压力:** 企业裁员的原因多样,除了AI等战略性投入,外部因素如贸易关税(如特朗普政府的关税政策)和消费者支出变化也增加了运营成本,迫使企业寻求削减开支。内部因素如组织结构臃肿(如Target所述的“过多层级和重叠工作”)也促使企业进行精简,以提高决策效率和竞争力。

💼 **不同行业受影响程度不一:** 文章列举了零售(Amazon, Target)、物流(UPS)、食品(Nestlé)、航空(Lufthansa Group)、制药(Novo Nordisk)、能源(ConocoPhillips)、科技(Intel, Microsoft)等多个行业的裁员案例。这表明经济下行和行业转型的影响是广泛的,但具体原因和规模在不同行业和公司之间存在差异。

Amid wider economic uncertainty, some analysts have said that businesses are at a “no-hire, no fire” standstill. That’s caused many to limit new work to only a few specific roles, if not pause openings entirely. At the same time, some sizeable layoffs have continued to pile up — raising worker anxieties across sectors.

Some companies have pointed to rising operational costs spanning from President Donald Trump’s barrage of new tariffs and shifts in consumer spending. Others cite corporate restructuring more broadly — or, as seen with big names like Amazon, are redirecting money to investments like artificial intelligence.

In such cases, “it’s not so much AI directly taking jobs, but AI’s appetite for cash that might be taking jobs,” said Jason Schloetzer, professor business administration at Georgetown University’s McDonough School. He pointed to wider “trade offs” from employment to infrastructure investment seen across companies today.

Federal employees have encountered additional doses of uncertainty, impacting worker sentiment around the job market overall. Shortly after Trump returned to office at the start of the year, federal jobs were cut by the thousands. And many workers are now going without pay as the U.S. government shutdown nears its fourth week.

“A lot of people are looking around, scanning the job environment, scanning the opportunities that are available to them — whether it’s in the public or private sector,” said Schloetzer. “And I think there’s a question mark around the long-term stability everywhere.”

Government hiring data is on hold during the shutdown, but earlier this month a survey by payroll company ADP showed a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September.

Here are some companies that have moved to cut jobs recently.

Amazon

Amazon said Tuesday that it will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs, close to 4% of its workforce, as the online retail giant ramps up spending on AI while trimming costs elsewhere. A letter to employees said most workers would be given 90 days to look for a new position internally.

CEO Andy Jassy previously said he anticipated generative AI would reduce Amazon’s corporate workforce in the coming years. And he has worked to aggressively cut costs overall since 2021.

UPS

United Parcel Service has cut about 34,000 jobs since the start of this year as part of turnaround efforts, amid wider shifts in the company’s shipping outputs.

The layoffs, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Tuesday, are notably higher than the roughly 20,000 cuts UPS forecast earlier this year. On Tuesday, UPS said it also closed closed daily operations at 93 leased and owned buildings during the first nine months of this year.

Target

Last week, Target that it would eliminate about 1,800 corporate positions, or about 8% of its corporate workforce globally.

Target said the cuts were part of wider streamlining efforts — with Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke noting that “too many layers and overlapping work have slowed decisions.” The retailer is also looking to rebuild its customer base. Target reported flat or declining comparable sales in nine of the past eleven quarters.

Nestlé

In mid-October, Nestlé said it would be cutting 16,000 jobs globally — as part of wider cost cutting aimed at reviving its financial performance.

The Swiss food giant said the layoffs would take place over the next two years. The cuts arrive as Nestlé and others face headwinds like rising commodity costs and U.S. imposed tariffs. The company announced price hikes over the summer to offset higher coffee and cocoa costs.

Lufthansa Group

In September, Lufthansa Group said it would shed 4,000 jobs by 2030 — pointing to the adoption of artificial intelligence, digitalization and consolidating work among member airlines.

Most of the lost jobs would be in Germany, and the focus would be on administrative rather than operational roles, the company said. The layoff plans arrived even as the company reported strong demand for air travel and predicted stronger profits in years ahead.

Novo Nordisk

Also in September, Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk said it would cut 9,000 jobs, about 11% of its workforce.

Novo Nordisk — which makes drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy — said the layoffs were part of wider restructuring as the company works to sell more obesity and diabetes medications amid rising competition.

ConocoPhillips

Oil giant ConocoPhillips has said it plans to lay off up to a quarter of its workforce, as part of broader efforts from the company to cut costs.

A spokesperson for ConocoPhillips confirmed the layoffs on Sept. 3, noting that 20% to 25% of the company’s employees and contractors would be impacted worldwide. At the time, ConocoPhillips had a total headcount of about 13,000 — or between 2,600 and 3,250 workers. Most reductions were expected to take place before the end of 2025.

Intel

Intel has moved to shed thousands of jobs — with the struggling chipmaker working to revive its business as it lags behind rivals like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices.

In a July memo to employees, CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Intel expected to end the year with 75,000 “core” workers, excluding subsidiaries, through layoffs and attrition. That’s down from 99,500 core employees reported the end of last year. The company previously announced a 15% workforce reduction.

Microsoft

In May, Microsoft began began laying off about 6,000 workers across its workforce. And just months later, the tech giant said it would be cutting 9,000 positions — marking its biggest round of layoffs seen in more than two years.

The latest job cuts hit Microsoft’s Xbox video game business and other divisions. The company has cited “organizational changes,” with many executives characterizing the layoffs as part of a push to trim management layers. But the labor reductions also arrive as the company spends heavily on AI.

Procter & Gamble

In June, Procter & Gamble said it would cut up to 7,000 jobs over the next two years, 6% of the company’s global workforce.

The maker of Tide detergent and Pampers diapers said the cuts were part of a wider restructuring — also arriving amid tariff pressures. In July, P&G said it would hike prices on about a quarter of its products due to the newly-imposed import taxes, although it’s since said it expects to take less of a hit than previously anticipated for the 2026 fiscal year.

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经济不确定性 裁员 招聘 人工智能 企业成本 经济 就业市场 Economic Uncertainty Layoffs Hiring Artificial Intelligence Corporate Costs Economy Job Market
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