Fortune | FORTUNE 10月29日 00:21
Cathie Wood 预测经济将经历利率调整的“阵痛”
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ARK Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 认为,美国经济可能在利率从下降转向上升的过程中经历一次“阵痛”。尽管美联储预计将再次降息,但 Wood 预测明年将出现利率上升的转变。她指出,历史表明高利率并非必然导致创新减缓,并以 2017 年为例说明即使利率上升,市场表现依然强劲。Wood 强调,尽管存在股市回调的可能性,ARK Invest 仍将继续投资于机器人、人工智能、区块链和能源储存等领域的创新。她特别看好多组学测序在医疗保健领域的应用,并认为人工智能不会导致市场泡沫,反而可能带来生产力驱动的经济繁荣。

📈 **利率环境转变与经济“阵痛”**: Cathie Wood 预测,随着美国经济从降息转向加息,可能会经历一个“阵痛”期。她认为,尽管当前普遍预计美联储会降息,但在未来一年内,利率上升的趋势将显现。她试图纠正一种普遍的误解,即高利率必然导致创新减缓,并引用 2017 年的经验说明,即使利率上升,市场仍能取得优异表现。

💡 **持续投资于创新领域**: 尽管对经济可能出现的波动有所预警,Cathie Wood 及其 ARK Invest 仍坚定地投资于具有颠覆性潜力的创新领域。这包括机器人技术、人工智能(AI)、区块链和能源储存等前沿科技。Wood 尤其强调多组学测序在医疗保健领域的巨大潜力,认为这是当前被低估且未被充分认识的创新热点,ARK Invest 正在积极布局。

🚀 **人工智能驱动的生产力繁荣**: Wood 对人工智能(AI)在经济中的作用持乐观态度,她认为 AI 不会引发市场泡沫,反而将成为推动生产力大幅提升的关键力量。她预测,美国乃至全球经济将进入一个由生产力驱动的繁荣期,这将对股市产生积极影响,并为经济增长注入新的活力。

Investor Cathie Wood said the U.S. economy may be in for a “shudder” as it adjusts from an environment of decreasing interest rates to one where interest rates are rising.

Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, said sometime in the next year there will be a shift toward rising interest rates, even as the Fed is widely predicted this week to cut rates for the second time this year.

When this happens, “there will be a shudder,” Wood told CNBC, even though history shows higher interest rates aren’t necessarily correlated with lower innovation that fuels market gains.

“Even in 2017 when interest rates went up, we had phenomenal performance,” said Wood. “I want to disabuse people of that notion. But nonetheless, the way algorithms work these days, we think that there will be a reality check.”

Wood said she is not deterred by the possibility of a stock market pullback, and ARK Invest is continuing to invest in innovation plays around robotics, AI, blockchain, and energy storage. 

Multi-omic sequencing in the health care space—a deep analytical approach using multiple layers of biological data to diagnose diseases—is “the most underestimated and underappreciated” area of innovation ARK is investing in, she said. 

Overall, Wood is still bullish on the economy. While some fear a “bubble” on the horizon thanks to the massive increase in tech stock valuations, in part led by the AI boom, Wood said AI is not causing a bubble.

She bets that a coming productivity boom will help push up the stock market even further later this year.

“We think that the economy, the U.S.—and the rest of the world, of course will participate—is going to move into a productivity driven boom, just in time for our midterm election,” Wood said.

Economic uncertainty

There are some signs that corporations are using AI to get more out of fewer workers. Amazon this week it would cut 14,000 office workers this year as it invests further in AI to “realize efficiency gains.” Salesforce also laid off 4,000 workers from its customer-support division earlier this year. 

Still, it’s unclear how the economy will fare in the coming months amid instability. The Trump administration, despite passing an effective corporate tax, the Big Beautiful Bill earlier this year, which Wood said will fuel innovation, has also whipsawed on tariffs. Last week, President Trump levied an additional 10% tariff on trading partner Canada after the Province of Ontario aired an anti-tariff ad that featured former President Ronald Reagan. 

Wood, though, credits the administration with its approach to regulation and innovation and said its policies could help business overall.

“They’re very focused on deregulation, massive deregulation. We have a crypto and AI czar never have had that before, and they’re focused on business friendly policies—inviting more foreign direct investment into the United States, especially in the manufacturing realm.”

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Cathie Wood 经济 利率 创新 人工智能 ARK Invest 经济预测 Cathie Wood Economy Interest Rates Innovation Artificial Intelligence ARK Invest Economic Forecast
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