Fortune | FORTUNE 10月28日 00:34
自动驾驶技术发展与安全性探讨
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文章探讨了自动驾驶技术在发展过程中面临的挑战与安全性问题。尽管早期自动驾驶车辆事故率高于传统汽车,但与人类驾驶相比,其受伤和死亡率仍较低。技术进步和监管框架的建立正推动自动驾驶汽车的广泛应用,尤其是在机器人出租车领域。L5级别自动驾驶被视为该行业的“ChatGPT时刻”,有望在十年内实现媲美最佳人类驾驶员的水平,预示着未来交通的巨大变革。

🚗 自动驾驶技术发展伴随事故率挑战:从早期飞机发明到如今的自动驾驶汽车,技术迭代中的事故常成为焦点。数据显示,2019年至2024年间,自动驾驶汽车发生了3,979起事件,其中10%导致受伤。2021年,自动驾驶汽车的事故率(每百万英里9.1起)是传统汽车(每百万英里4.1起)的两倍多。这表明新技术在推广初期会经历阵痛,但发明者应保持创新勇气。

🛡️ 自动驾驶的相对安全性与未来潜力:尽管事故率较高,但自动驾驶的受伤和死亡率低于人类驾驶员。Swiss Re报告显示,无人驾驶汽车的身体伤害索赔减少了92%,财产损失索赔减少了88%。Goldman Sachs预测,未来15年内,自动驾驶汽车的普及可能使保险成本降低50%以上。这使得自动驾驶在监管支持下,正逐步走向大规模部署,并有望在十年内实现L5级别的成熟应用。

🚀 行业快速增长与监管推动:全球范围内,自动驾驶汽车市场预计将快速增长,Goldman Sachs预测未来十年全球营收将达3000-4000亿美元。中国公司WeRide已在美国、沙特阿拉伯等多个国家获得自动驾驶许可,并在沙特通过Uber提供机器人出租车服务。沙特阿拉伯等政府正积极与WeRide合作,建立监管框架以适应自动驾驶车辆上路。未来五年内,机器人出租车行业有望蓬勃发展,主要城市将普遍接纳自动驾驶技术。

The iterative invention process made headlines for crashes, not unlike the ones autonomous vehicles are making now, with 3,979 incidents involving autonomous vehicles from 2019 to 2024, 10% of which resulted in injury. While the accident rate for traditional cars was 4.1 accidents per million miles driven in 2021, the rate for autonomous vehicles was more than twice that at 9.1 per million miles, according to the National Law Review. Han said it is all part of what it takes to make technology better for future generations. 

“If you just dig into the old news, old papers, one airplane just invented by the Wright Brothers—a crash of an airplane will make it to the headline anytime, even [if] nobody got injured,” Han said at the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh on Sunday. “It’s just like that. It’s our human civilization, history. 

“As entrepreneurs, as inventors, we should be really fearless enough,” he continued. “We should be brave enough to push forward for innovation, because we live in the AI era. Think about our offsprings, our kids. If we can make this a reality, they will appreciate us.”

About 1,500 autonomous vehicles commercially operate in the U.S., a figure projected to skyrocket to 35,000 in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs data. McKinsey and Company predicts the industry will generate $300 billion to $400 billion in revenue in the next decade globally. WeRide, a Chinese company giving Google’s Waymo a run for its money, announced last week it will begin offering its robotaxi services in Riyadh through Uber. It holds driving permits in Saudi Arabia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, France, and the U.S.

Despite the risks, Han said autonomous driving today is still safer than a human driver. While accident rates for autonomous vehicles have been higher than those for traditional vehicles, injury and fatality rates for automated driving remain lower than for traditional cars.

“This is a new thing, and there’s no perfect new thing, but now it’s getting into a certain level of maturity that can be deployed on a large scale,” Han said. “I’m not saying we can supply a kind of transportation tool that is 100% safe, but we can provide something that may be 10 times safer than a human driver.”

Evolution of self-driving technology

Early evidence suggests autonomous driving technology may help improve road safety and reduce crashes. A December 2024 report by insurance company Swiss Re, commissioned by Waymo, found in a liability claims analysis that driverless cars had 92% fewer bodily injury claims and 88% fewer property damage claims than human-driven counterparts.

Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that fewer autonomous-car crashes could reduce insurance costs by more than 50% over the next 15 years, from about $0.50 per mile in 2025 to $0.23 per mile in 2040. The analysts noted it would be unlikely to see autonomous vehicles as personal cars in the near future.

Han said governments, including in Saudi Arabia and other parts of the U.S., have been eager to work with WeRide and generate a regulatory framework to accommodate the vehicles on the road. He predicted that over the next five years, the robotaxi industry is poised to grow, with every major city willing to adopt autonomous driving, as seen in San Francisco, where there were 800 Waymos on the road as of August 2025, nearly three times as many as the company reported in March of this year. 

The real transformation with the technology will happen within the decade, with the development of L5 vehicles, Han said. Autonomous vehicles operate on a five-point scale of automation, with L1 requiring some driver assistance, and L5 requiring no assistance. WeRide currently produces vehicles operating in the L2 to L4 range, denoting partial to significant automation. Han called the development of effective L5 vehicles the industry’s “ChatGPT moment” capable of revolutionizing the future of road travel.

“I think L5, within 10 years, you will see the driving capabilities on par with the best human drivers,” Han said.

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自动驾驶 AI 技术发展 安全性 机器人出租车 L5自动驾驶 Autonomous Driving AI Technology Development Safety Robotaxi L5 Autonomy
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