Fortune | FORTUNE 10月28日 00:21
全球贸易格局重塑,区域一体化趋势显现
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全球贸易正经历剧烈动荡,但并未走向大规模的去全球化,而是呈现出区域一体化和再全球化的趋势。Mastercard主席Merit Janow指出,各国正重新调整贸易伙伴关系,加强区域内的经济联系。美国总统特朗普的贸易政策,如大幅提高关税,迫使依赖美国市场的国家寻找新的出口渠道。亚洲和中东国家正积极寻求更紧密的区域合作,企业也需要与政府更频繁地互动。同时,西方民主国家,尤其欧洲,面临提升竞争力的挑战,需要加快决策以适应全球快速变化的经济格局。美中贸易关系是当前市场焦点,双方正就一项贸易协议进行谈判,可能涉及中国放松稀土出口限制、增加美国大豆采购,以及美国降低对华关税。

🌍 **区域一体化趋势:** 尽管面临全球贸易的剧烈动荡,但世界并未走向大规模的去全球化,而是朝着区域一体化和再全球化的方向发展。Mastercard主席Merit Janow强调,各国正在重新调整其贸易伙伴关系,并加强区域内的经济联系,以应对不确定性。

⚖️ **贸易政策影响:** 美国总统特朗普的贸易政策,例如提高关税,正在促使那些长期依赖美国作为主要出口市场的国家重新评估其战略,并积极寻求其他合作伙伴。这种变化迫使各国调整出口策略,以适应新的全球贸易环境。

🤝 **美中贸易谈判:** 当前全球市场高度关注美中两个最大经济体之间的贸易关系。双方正在就一项贸易协议进行谈判,该协议可能包括中国放松稀土出口限制、增加美国大豆采购,以及美国撤销部分高额关税的威胁。双方领导人将就此进行会晤,以期达成最终协议。

🚀 **提升竞争力:** 在此背景下,西方民主国家,特别是欧洲,面临着重塑自身以保持竞争力的挑战。与一些能够更快、更果断采取行动的国家相比,欧洲的政治决策过程可能较慢,这对其经济增长率构成影响。

Amid massive disruptions to global trade, the world is realigning itself as countries look to integrate more regionally, according to Mastercard Chair Merit Janow.

At the Fortune Global Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, she said trade has actually remained resilient, even as the world muddles through a period of fragmentation and heightened uncertainty.

“Deregulation, re-globalization rather than massive de-globalization, I think, is what’s happening,” said Janow, who is also a former U.S. Trade Representative official. “So you’re seeing more regional concentrations of trade, and I think you’re seeing new experiments being born in this environment.” 

That’s because President Donald Trump’s trade war is hitting countries around the world with aggressive tariffs as he seeks to bring more production back to the U.S. and shrink the gap between imports and exports.

While he has backed off on some of his earlier sky-high rates and reached deals with major economies, the average effective tariff rate remains the highest in nearly a century.

As a result, countries that relied on the U.S. for decades as a top export market must now rethink their strategies and turn to other partners.

“I’m paying attention to what is happening under the rubric of coalitions of the willing because there are a lot of restrictions that are being introduced by governments around the world, and some of them in the name of economic security, sometimes in the name of economic growth,” Janow told Fortune’s Diane Brady.

For example, countries in Asia and the Middle East are seeking closer integration, she added, meaning corporate leaders need to work with governments more frequently, too.

At the same time, Western democracies must reinvent themselves to stay competitive, particularly in Europe, where political processes have slowed critical decisions, according to JLL CEO Christian Ulbrich.

“Other countries just have learned to move along much faster and more decisively, and that’s what we are seeing when you look at the growth rates in the world,” he said.

Trump’s China meeting

But the trade relationship that’s top of mind for global markets right now is the one between the world’s two biggest economies.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal that includes Beijing easing rare-earth export restrictions and buying “significant” amounts of U.S. soybeans in exchange for Trump removing his threat to impose 100% tariffs on China.

Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on Thursday on the sidelines of a regional economic conference in South Korea, where they will determine the final details of a deal.

During the Fortune Global Forum, Primavera Capital Chairman and CEO Fred Hu said he would like to see a deal with a tariff rate of 15%-25%, which isn’t ideal but something businesses could live with—and would be far better than “crazy, insane” rates above 100% that would kill trade and the world economy.

In addition, export controls should be highly selective to allow commercial uses while still ensuring national security priorities, rather than imposing across-the-board restrictions, he said. And China must also be a reliable supplier of rare earths, which are critical inputs for a wide range of industries.

“If both sides come to that, I think it will be in a much better place,” Hu added.

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全球贸易 区域一体化 再全球化 贸易政策 美中贸易 Global Trade Regional Integration Re-globalization Trade Policy US-China Trade
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