Fortune | FORTUNE 10月27日 23:00
美股上扬,市场聚焦中美贸易会谈与美联储降息预期
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本周伊始,美国股市普遍上涨,标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均录得增长,并延续了周五创下的历史新高。亚洲股市也随之上扬,市场普遍寄希望于即将举行的中美两国领导人会晤能够缓解两国间的贸易紧张局势,从而促进全球经济增长。美国财政部长表示双方已就讨论框架达成一致,总统也对解决问题表示乐观。此外,美联储预计将在周三宣布降息,以提振疲软的就业市场,尽管通胀数据和政府关门的不确定性为未来降息前景蒙上阴影。企业盈利预期和人工智能行业的投资热潮也为股市提供了支撑,但市场也对AI领域可能出现的泡沫表示担忧。

📈 市场乐观情绪提振股市:标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均录得上涨,并延续了周五创下的历史新高。亚洲股市也出现上扬,显示出全球市场对经济前景的积极态度。

🤝 中美贸易会谈备受期待:即将举行的中美两国领导人会晤被视为缓解全球最大两个经济体之间紧张局势的关键。美国官员的表态以及总统的乐观情绪,增加了市场对贸易摩擦缓和的希望,这对于全球经济的平稳运行至关重要。

📉 美联储降息预期为经济注入动力:市场普遍预计美联储将在本周宣布第二次降息,以刺激疲软的就业市场。然而,持续的通胀压力和潜在的政府关门事件为美联储的未来货币政策路径带来了不确定性,可能影响降息的持续性。

🚀 企业盈利与AI热潮是关键支撑:投资者对美国企业能够继续实现强劲利润增长抱有期待,近期部分公司财报表现积极。同时,人工智能技术的投资热潮仍在继续,但市场也开始担忧AI领域可能存在泡沫风险,类似于2000年的互联网泡沫。

The S&P 500 rose 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 210 points, or 0.4%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.3% higher. All are adding to their latest all-time highs set on Friday.

Stocks also rallied in Asia ahead of a meeting on Thursday between the heads of the United States and China. The hope is that the talks could clear rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies and allow the global economy to keep motoring.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s “a framework” for U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss at their meeting, while Trump said, “We feel good” about working things out with China.

That’s just one of many things that will need to go right this week in order for the U.S. stock market’s tremendous, record-breaking rally to continue. The S&P 500 has shot up a stunning 37% since hitting a low in April, when worries about Trump’s tariffs on China and other countries were at their peak. Besides hopes for easing trade tensions, the rally has also been built on expectations for several more things to happen.

One is that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates in order to give the slowing job market a boost. The Fed’s next announcement on interest rates is due on Wednesday, and the nearly unanimous expectation among traders is that it will cut the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point for a second straight meeting.

It’s not a certainty though, because the Fed has also warned it may have to change course if inflation ends up accelerating beyond its still-high level. That’s because low interest rates can make inflation worse.

The latest monthly report on inflation came in slightly better than economists expected, raising hopes, but it may be the final update for a while if the U.S. government’s shutdown continues. That could cloud the forecast for cuts to rates to continue.

Besides low interest rates, another expectation that’s propped up stock prices is the forecasts that U.S. companies will continue to deliver solid growth in profits.

Keurig Dr Pepper climbed 4.9% Monday after reporting profit for the latest quarter that matched analysts’ expectations. The company behind the Canada Dry and Green Mountain coffee brands said it benefited from higher prices for K-Cup products, among other things

Some of Wall Street’s most influential stocks are also set to report their latest results this upcoming week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Microsoft on Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple on Thursday. They’ll need to deliver big growth and justify big spending that’s underway in artificial-intelligence technology.

Worries have been climbing that AI may be in the midst of a bubble, similar to the dot-com bonanza that ended up bursting in 2000.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe amid mostly modest moves following bigger gains in Asia.

Stocks rose 1.2% in Shanghai and 1% in Hong Kong. They rose even more in Tokyo, where the Nikkei 25 jumped 2.5%, and in Seoul, where South Korea’s Kospi rallied 2.6%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was holding steady at 4.02%, where it was late Friday.

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AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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