Fortune | FORTUNE 10月27日 01:19
9月 housing 市场意外活跃
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Zillow 9月住房市场报告显示,在通常的房地产淡季中出现了意外的活跃。由于抵押利率下降和股市强劲,买家和卖家在8月低迷后重新焕发活力。新房源同比增长3%,扭转了前一个月3%的下降。总库存从8月到9月仅下降1%,但比去年水平高14%。报告还显示力量平衡正在转变:现在美国50个最大的都市中,有15个是买家市场,而去年只有6个。Zillow的热指数命名了最有利于买家的都市:迈阿密、佛罗里达州;新奥尔良、路易斯安那州;奥斯汀、德克萨斯州;杰克逊维尔、佛罗里达州;印第安纳波利斯、印第安纳州。相比之下,由于住房供应有限和限制性土地使用法律,卖方主导的市场仍然火爆。Zillow命名的最佳卖方市场包括:布法罗、纽约;哈特福德、康涅狄格州;圣何塞、加利福尼亚州;旧金山、加利福尼亚州;纽约、纽约。全国最新数据显示,Freddie Mac的平均30年期固定抵押贷款利率降至2025年最低的约6.19%,9月份现有房屋销售达到七个月高点,负担能力开始改善。即使15%的待售交易被紧张的买家取消,Redfin的数据显示卖家正在调整预期——降价并接受较慢的交易。这些趋势表明住房市场正在解冻而不是过热。Zillow的经济学家的预期这个“非季节性活跃”的秋季将延续到节假日,由缓解的借贷成本和积累的需求推动。对于已经等待窗口的买家来说,这可能是近三年来的第一个真正机会。

🏡 9月 housing 市场出现意外活跃,通常房地产淡季,由于抵押利率下降和股市强劲,买家和卖家重新焕发活力。

📈 新房源同比增长3%,扭转了前一个月3%的下降。总库存从8月到9月仅下降1%,但比去年水平高14%,显示出市场的韧性。

🔄 力量平衡正在转变:现在美国50个最大的都市中,有15个是买家市场,而去年只有6个。Zillow命名了最有利于买家的都市,如迈阿密、奥斯汀等,而卖方主导的市场仍然火爆,如布法罗、旧金山等。

📉 尽管有15%的待售交易被紧张的买家取消,但卖家正在调整预期——降价并接受较慢的交易,显示出市场适应变化的能力。

📊 全国最新数据显示,平均30年期固定抵押贷款利率降至2025年最低的约6.19%,9月份现有房屋销售达到七个月高点,负担能力开始改善,为买家提供了更好的机会。

Zillow’s September 2025 housing market report reveals an unexpected surge of activity during what is typically real estate’s slow season. A dip in mortgage rates—combined with a strong stock market—sparked renewed energy among both buyers and sellers after a sluggish August.

New listings climbed 3% year over year in September, reversing the 3% decline a month earlier. On a monthly basis, listings dipped 2%, outperforming the historical average of a 9% tumble heading into the fall.

Total inventory slipped just 1% from August to September but sits 14% higher than last year’s levels.

The report also shows a shifting balance of power: 15 of the nation’s 50 largest metros are now buyer’s markets, up from six last year.

Zillow’s heat index names the top buyer-friendly metros:

    Miami, FloridaNew Orleans, LouisianaAustin, TexasJacksonville, FloridaIndianapolis, Indiana

In contrast, seller-leaning markets remain hot due to limited housing supply and restrictive land-use laws.

The best seller’s markets named by Zillow include:

    Buffalo, New YorkHartford, ConnecticutSan Jose, CaliforniaSan Francisco, CaliforniaNew York, New York

Recent nationwide data reinforces Zillow’s message of resilience. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to about 6.19%, its lowest point of 2025. Meanwhile, existing-home sales rose to a seven-month high in September as affordability began to improve. And even as 15% of pending sales were canceled amid nervous buyers, Redfin’s numbers show that sellers are adjusting expectations—making price cuts and accepting slower deals.

Together, these trends suggest the housing market is thawing rather than overheating. Zillow’s economists expect this “unseasonably active” fall to carry into the holidays, powered by easing borrowing costs and pent-up demand. For buyers who’ve been waiting for a window, this may be the first real opening in nearly three years.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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