Fortune | FORTUNE 10月24日 04:34
科技进步与就业转型:AI带来的机遇与挑战
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文章探讨了科技,特别是人工智能(AI),对就业市场带来的深远影响。高盛CEO David Solomon指出,AI正以更快的速度改变工作方式和所需技能,可能导致部分岗位出现过渡期的波动。然而,他强调经济的灵活性和适应性,认为AI将为业务投资带来更多机会。Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang和Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella也认为AI是又一次技术革命,而非大规模失业的根源,类似工业革命,将引发劳动力的重新分配和社会行为的改变。文章还列举了已受AI影响的行业,如客户服务和部分编程工作,并指出部分蓝领工作可能相对稳定。

💡 AI加速就业转型:高盛CEO David Solomon认为,AI正以前所未有的速度影响着工作岗位和所需技能,可能导致部分职业功能在过渡期内面临更多不确定性。但他同时强调经济的韧性,并看好AI为企业带来的长期发展机遇。

🚀 AI是技术革命而非终结:Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang和Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella均将AI视为继工业革命之后的又一次重大技术变革。他们认为AI将促进生产力提升,催生新的工作模式和商业创意,而非造成大规模失业,类似于历史上的技术进步,AI也将推动劳动力的重新分配和对工作的重新定义。

📉 特定岗位面临挑战,部分岗位相对稳定:文章指出,客户服务、初级华尔街职位以及部分如翻译、作家等创意和信息处理类工作正面临被AI自动化取代的风险。然而,像水处理厂操作员、铁路铺设工等一些蓝领和操作性岗位,由于其工作性质,受AI影响的程度可能相对较小。

“Technology has been having an impact on headcount, the way people work, what workers you have, for decades and decades and decades,” Solomon recently said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. “One of the things that’s happening here that’s a little bit different, is this is going at a pace that’s quicker. Because the pace is so quick, I think there’s a possibility that there’s a little bit more volatility or an unsettled transition around certain job functions.”

This isn’t the first time certain jobs have been made redundant by new tech entering the workplace. But as Solomon pointed out, many also simply had makeovers. For example, 25 years ago at Goldman, the $225 billion bank didn’t have the huge cohort of 13,000 engineers it has today. And looking ahead, the chief executive predicted that the business’ mix of engineers and AI will continue to change again. However, he isn’t all doom and gloom on what that means for his employees, the company, and its clients. 

“At the end of the day, we have an incredibly flexible, nimble economy. We have a great ability to adapt and adjust,” Solomon continued. “Yes, there will be job functions that shift and change…But I’m excited about it. If you take a three to five year view, it’s giving us more capacity to invest in our business.”

Fortune reached out to Goldman Sachs for comment. 

CEOs contend AI is just another tech revolution 

Goldman Sachs’ chief executive isn’t the only prominent business leader looking to leverage gains from AI. And despite some waving the red flag of a white-collar jobs armageddon, others contend that the shift will be just like any other technological change in the past—and something to embrace sooner rather than later. 

“I can’t find a CEO that I’m talking to, in any industry, that is not focused on how they can reimagine and automate processes in their business to create operating efficiency and productivity,” Solomon said.

Earlier this year, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said that the world is “at the beginning of an AI revolution,” and that he could even see the world shifting to a four-day workweek. But as productivity improves with the advanced tech, business leaders will only continue to drum up even more revolutionary ideas, which will require a constant flow of work from humans. How people do their jobs will change, but Huang doesn’t see AI creating mass unemployment or the need for humans to live off a universal high income. 

“Every industrial revolution leads to some change in social behavior,” Huang said on Fox Business Network’s The Claman Countdown. “I have to admit that I’m afraid to say that we are going to be busier in the future than now.”

Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella is in agreement with Huang, and pointed to England’s Industrial Revolution as a prime example. The leader said the innovation caused a redistribution of labor—which he admitted is a “scary word”—but it ultimately resulted in the world changing its view on labor. The AI revolution will do just the same, Nadella said: it will trigger a societal challenge that can be solved with new work solutions. 

The jobs already being displaced by AI: customer service and coders

The AI race is well underway, and human workers are already witnessing which jobs are under threat of automation. 

Customer service jobs are already being rapidly displaced; earlier this year Salesforce cut 4,000 of the roles, and Klarna’s AI chatbot now does the work of 800 agents.

Entry-level Wall Street roles are at risk of automation, too. OpenAI just enlisted more than 100 former investment bankers to train its AI models to build financial models, which eventually could automate hours worth of young workers’ responsibilities. This move comes after predictions that junior analysts at financial institutions could be in danger of being made redundant by AI, according to a New York Times report from last year. 

Other reports show that automation will be wide-reaching across a plethora of industries and professions. The jobs that are the most affected by generative AI include: interpreters and translators, historians, passenger attendants, sales representatives, writers, and telephone operators. Meanwhile, other roles may be sheltered from the storm, particularly blue-collar jobs like dredge operators, bridge and lock tenders, water treatment plant operators, and rail-track layers.

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人工智能 AI 就业市场 技术革命 自动化 未来工作 Goldman Sachs Nvidia Microsoft Artificial Intelligence Job Market Tech Revolution Automation Future of Work
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