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南非公布2.23万亿兰特能源计划,聚焦可再生能源
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南非近日公布了其2.23万亿兰特(约合1270亿美元)的综合资源计划(IRP)2025,该计划旨在2025年至2039年间新增超过105吉瓦的电力发电能力。其中,可再生能源占据核心地位,计划新增25吉瓦太阳能光伏和34吉瓦风能。此外,该计划还包括16吉瓦的分布式发电和8.5吉瓦的储能容量,以及16吉瓦的天然气和5.2吉瓦的核能。IRP 2025已获内阁批准,旨在解决当前的电力供应瓶颈,并推动电力行业在2050年实现净零排放。该计划将分阶段实施,以支持供应链和人力资源技能的发展,并旨在以最低成本满足日益增长的电力需求,同时保障能源安全和脱碳目标。

💡 **可再生能源引领转型:** 南非IRP 2025计划在2025年至2039年间新增超过105吉瓦的电力装机容量,其中可再生能源成为发展重点,拟新增25吉瓦太阳能光伏和34吉瓦风能,这标志着南非能源结构向低碳化迈进的关键一步,旨在摆脱对传统能源的依赖。

📈 **多能源组合与容量目标:** 除了可再生能源,该计划还规划了16吉瓦的分布式发电、8.5吉瓦的储能、16吉瓦的天然气以及5.2吉瓦的核能。这种多元化的能源组合旨在确保能源供应的稳定性和可靠性,并为实现2050年净零排放目标奠定基础,同时满足预计到2029年将升至255太瓦时的电力需求。

🏗️ **分阶段实施与能力建设:** 南非电力部长强调,IRP 2025将采取分阶段实施的方式,以期在全国范围内建立完善的供应链和培养充足的人力资源技能。这种循序渐进的策略有助于平稳过渡,降低能源转型过程中的风险,并确保项目能够高效落地。

🤝 **广泛的利益相关者参与:** 南非国家电力公司Eskom表示,IRP 2025的制定过程中汇集了超过4000名利益相关者的意见,为电力供应提供了清晰的投资框架。这表明该计划得到了业界的广泛认可,并为投资者、监管机构和公众描绘了清晰的能源发展路径,有助于吸引投资并促进市场改革。

⚡ **解决当前能源挑战:** 鉴于南非近年来面临的持续电力短缺和电网不稳定问题,IRP 2025的发布被视为解决这些挑战的重要举措。通过大力发展可再生能源和优化能源结构,该计划旨在提升能源安全,推动经济发展,并实现可持续的能源未来。

South Africa has unveiled its ZAR 2.23 trillion ($127 billion) Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 that projects adding more than 105 GW of new electricity generation capacity between 2025 and 2039. Renewable energy takes center stage with 25 GW solar PV and 34 GW wind energy in the targeted mix, while coal is left behind.  

The plan also envisages the addition of 16 GW of distributed generation capacity, along with 8.5 GW of energy storage. IRP 2025 also includes 16 GW of gas and 5.2 GW of nuclear power additions. Recently approved by the cabinet, the plan focuses on addressing immediate capacity constraints and achieving net zero for the electricity sector by 2050.

While the finer details are yet to be released, the country’s Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, shared some features of the IRP 2025 in a press conference widely reported on by the local media. He said by 2030, the IRP 2025 targets 11.27 GW of new solar PV capacity, along with 7.34 GW of wind and 6 GW of gas-to-power capacity.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), South Africa’s cumulative installed solar PV capacity had reached 8.46 GW at the end of 2024.

This phased approach, explained Ramokgopa, will enable the country to build out supply chains and build skill sets of its human resources.

According to the minister, the new plan has been designed to address the problem of the South African energy system, which is currently unable to generate enough supply to meet the growing demand at the lowest cost of electricity to the economy. Government estimates show the country’s electricity demand to rise to 255 TWh by 2029.

It also supports the country’s energy security while boosting decarbonization efforts. 

South Africa’s sole utility, Eskom, welcomed the IRP 2025, which it says incorporates inputs from over 4,000 stakeholders, and provides a clear investment framework for electricity supply. 

“It signals to investors, regulators, and our citizens that South Africa has a focussed pathway to reach NetZero inclusively and provides the opportunity for Eskom to play its role fairly and compete in a reformed electricity supply industry,” stated Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane.  

Over the last few years, South Africa has faced persistent power shortages and grid instability due to its aging power infrastructure. This has prompted growing investment in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, to diversify supply and reduce coal dependence. Its Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme (REIPPPP) auction scheme has been instrumental in expanding the share of renewables (see Solar Wins South Africa’s REIPPPP 7 Renewable Energy Auction).  

In April 2025, South Africa announced plans to install 3 GW to 5 GW of new renewable energy capacity/year until 2030 under the South African Renewable Energy Master Plan (SAREM). The focus will be on solar, wind, and battery storage (see South Africa Targets Up To 5 GW Annual RE Additions By 2030). 

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南非 能源计划 IRP 2025 可再生能源 太阳能 风能 脱碳 South Africa Energy Plan IRP 2025 Renewable Energy Solar Power Wind Energy Decarbonization
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