All Content from Business Insider 10月22日 01:17
亿万富翁比尔·格罗斯:黄金近期表现更像“梗股”
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亿万富翁、PIMCO联合创始人比尔·格罗斯(Bill Gross)在接受采访时表示,黄金近期的表现更像是“梗股”(meme stock)而非避险资产。尽管今年以来黄金价格飙升,但在周二却遭遇了12年来最糟糕的单日下跌。格罗斯认为,黄金的上涨部分是由于炒作和投机,使其变得更加波动,并容易出现急剧下跌。他指出,黄金价格对短期利率敏感,且受到央行大量购买的影响,这与政策不确定性有关。尽管如此,格罗斯预计黄金在未来几周的表现将优于股票。

💰 **黄金表现类比“梗股”:** 亿万富翁比尔·格罗斯指出,黄金近期价格波动剧烈,表现出类似“梗股”和动量股的特征,而非传统意义上的避险资产。这表明其价格上涨可能更多地受到市场炒作和投机情绪的影响,而非基本面支撑,使其易于出现大幅回调。

📉 **近期遭遇剧烈下跌:** 黄金在今年大幅上涨后,于周二经历了12年来最严重的单日下跌,跌幅高达6.3%。这一现象与此前金银价格创纪录的涨势形成对比,暗示了获利了结的可能,也印证了格罗斯关于其潜在波动的警告。

📈 **影响金价的多重因素:** 格罗斯分析,黄金价格的波动受到短期利率、央行购买量以及全球政策不确定性(如贸易战、军事冲突和政治动荡)的多重影响。央行因对市场和全球经济前景的担忧而大量购入黄金,推高了其价格。

⚖️ **未来走势展望:** 尽管存在短期回调的风险,格罗斯预计黄金在未来几周的表现将优于股票,因为潜在的疲软财报季可能抑制股市的牛市。他认为,动量、政策和利率将是决定黄金价格走向的关键因素,并认为在经历强劲上涨后,可能会出现一个更适合买入的时机。

Bill Gross is the billionaire cofounder of PIMCO.

Gold is trading more like a trending stock on Reddit than a haven for investors, and may have topped out after its record surge, billionaire investor Bill Gross told Business Insider.

The yellow metal fell as much as 6.3% on Tuesday, suffering its worst drop in 12 years. The drop coincided with an even steeper 8.7% decline in spot silver prices.

The moves suggest investors are taking profits after gold and silver's record-setting gains this year, and perhaps acting on Gross's latest warning.

After cautioning investors in a Friday post on X to "wait awhile" if they wanted to buy gold, the Wall Street billionaire known as the "Bond King" told Business Insider in an email that gold was "exhibiting characteristics of meme and momentum stocks."

Gross, who cofounded PIMCO and grew its flagship Total Return Fund to $270 billion over nearly three decades, meant that gold has soared in price partly because of hype and speculation, making it more volatile and vulnerable to a sudden, sharp decline.

Gross told Business Insider that gold was still "sensitive to short-term interest rates," referring to the metal's tendency to rise in price when borrowing costs drop.

That's because falling rates make gold more appealing to investors relative to cash and bonds as their yields decline. Lower rates can also accelerate inflation, making gold a more attractive hedge against rising prices, and signal economic trouble, feeding demand for gold as a safe investment.

Gold has also soared this year because central banks have been buying historically large amounts of it due to "policy uncertainty," Gross said. Trade wars, military conflicts, and political discord have fueled doubts about the outlook for markets and the global economy.

Gross told Business Insider gold would 'hold up better' than stocks

Gross told Business Insider that gold would likely "hold up better than stocks" in the weeks ahead, adding that a disappointing earnings season could rein in the bull market. But he said there might be a price pullback after two strong months of trading, creating "perhaps a better time to buy."

The veteran investor said "momentum, policy, and perhaps interest rates will be dominant factors" in gold's price trajectory.

He added that Treasury yields are pricing in a drop in the Fed Funds rate to around 3% so a "very bearish economy/earnings report would be needed to drive it further absent momentum influences."

Gross has previously called out social media hype and FOMO-fueled speculation in markets.

In 2022, he described meme stocks AMC and GameStop as "lottery tickets," saying they could rise but were highly volatile and their valuations weren't supported by fundamentals. He said that each buying frenzy ends with a "musical chair, me-first exit" from the stock du jour.

The bond billionaire said last summer that Tesla was behaving like a meme stock, given its " straight-up price action" despite "sagging fundamentals."

Gross has sold options on GameStop, AMC, Trump Media, and other meme stocks, betting they'll expire worthless and he could keep the premiums without paying anything.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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