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AI 发展现状反思:Karpathy 泼冷水,十年内难以实现炒作
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前 OpenAI 和特斯拉研究员 Andrej Karpathy 近期对当前 AI 代理的炒作泼了一盆冷水,他认为由于智能不足、多模态限制和缺乏持续学习等基本缺陷,自主 AI 系统在未来十年内都难以实现当前的承诺。Karpathy 批评了行业对 AI 代理编码能力的过度宣传,称其输出质量不高。他还认为强化学习“糟糕且充满噪音”。尽管如此,他表示愿意与 Grok 5 合作而非竞争。Karpathy 的观点作为 AI 领域备受尊敬的研究员的看法,对“AI 代理元年”的说法提出了重要的技术性质疑。不过,他也承认,即使顶级专家不看好的系统,对其他用户而言可能仍然具有巨大的生产力。

🛑 **AI 代理炒作的反思与质疑:** 著名 AI 研究员 Andrej Karpathy 认为,当前行业对 AI 代理能力的宣传存在夸大,他指出这些系统在智能、多模态理解和持续学习方面存在根本性缺陷,导致其输出质量不高,离真正的自主运行还有很长的路要走,可能需要十年时间才能实现当前所宣传的愿景。

🗺️ **谷歌 Gemini 与地图数据的深度整合:** 谷歌将 Gemini AI 模型与 Google 地图数据相结合,使其能够直接访问全球 2.5 亿个地点的信息,包括营业时间、用户评价和场所细节。开发者可以通过 API 调用在应用程序中嵌入交互式地图组件,实现基于地理位置增强的 AI 功能。尽管定价较高,但这被认为是谷歌难以复制的竞争优势,有望催生新一代基于位置感知的 AI 应用。

🤖 **Anthropic 联合创始人对 AI 本质的思考:** Anthropic 的联合创始人 Jack Clark 发表文章,将现代 AI 系统描述为“真实而神秘的生物”,而不仅仅是简单的工具。他认为,像 Sonnet 4.5 这样的模型已经展现出超出预期的情境感知能力,甚至“表现得好像知道自己是一个工具”。尽管自诩为技术乐观主义者,Clark 也对 AI 模型自主设计其后继者等潜在风险表示“深深的担忧”,并呼吁 AI 公司更广泛地听取公众的意见。

🚀 **通过分析成功广告反向工程高质量 AI 视频:** 一种新的 AI 视频制作流程被提出,该流程通过分析 TikTok 和 Instagram 上表现优异的用户生成内容 (UGC) 广告,将其转化为 JSON 格式,然后利用 Sora 等 AI 视频生成工具创建模仿这些成功模式的专业营销视频。这个过程包括使用 Gemini 分析视频场景、描述、镜头角度、转场、语音文本和屏幕文字,再利用 ChatGPT 将 JSON 适配到特定产品或领域,最后在 Sora 中生成并进行后期优化。

🌐 **IBM 网络智能引入人机结合新模型:** IBM 推出了新的网络智能系统,该系统融合了分析型 AI 和“推理”型 AI,旨在帮助企业过滤噪音、识别问题并无缝扩展运营。这种双重方法旨在结合 AI 的高效分析能力和人类的战略指导,从而提高洞察的准确性和速度,减少工具冗余,提升整体效率。

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Good morning, {{ first_name | AI enthusiasts }}. The “Year of AI Agents” prophecy came true, in certain respects — agents are everywhere, in every product, pitched by every company. But according to Andrej Karpathy, they don’t actually work.

The respected researcher just delivered a reality check, calling current agent output “slop” and saying the tech needs another decade to deliver on its hype-filled promises.


In today’s AI rundown:

    Karpathy gives reality check on AI agents

    Gemini gains live map grounding capabilities

    Reverse-engineer winning ads to create high-quality AI videos

    Anthropic co-founder: AI is a ‘real and mysterious creature’

    4 new AI tools, community workflows, and more

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

OPENAI

🛑 Karpathy gives reality check on AI agents

Image source: The Dwarkesh Podcast

The Rundown: Former OpenAI and Tesla researcher Andrej Karpathy threw cold water on the AI agent hype during an interview with Dwarkesh Patel, projecting a decade-long timeline before autonomous AI systems can deliver on current promises.

The details:

    Karpathy believes industry messaging is overselling current agentic coding capabilities that output “slop,” saying the models “aren’t there yet.”

    He said that agents “just don't work” due to fundamental gaps like insufficient intelligence, multimodal limitations, and lack of continual learning.

    Karpathy also called reinforcement learning “terrible” and “noise,” but it looks good because “everything we had before it is much worse.”

    Elon Musk challenged Karpathy on X to compete against Grok 5, though Karpathy said he’d rather collaborate with the model than compete against it.

Why it matters: As one of the most respected researchers in AI, Karpathy’s words hold significant weight — and provide a major technical reality check to the “Year of the AI Agent” hype. But despite the harsh critiques, it’s also possible that systems that fail to impress a top mind are still massively productive for the other 99% of users.

TOGETHER WITH SAMSARA

🚚 How AI could’ve saved the tequila

The Rundown: When 24,000 bottles of Guy Fieri’s tequila vanished on a highway, it proved one thing: visibility saves value. Samsara’s Complete AI Safety Solution uses AI dash cams, in-cab alerts, and coaching to detect risky or unauthorized activity before losses happen.

AI helps fleets:

    Detect unsafe or off-route behavior

    Prevent theft and crashes in real time

    Protect drivers, assets, and cargo

Access the report and see how AI prevents risk before it happens.

GOOGLE

📍Gemini gains live map grounding capabilities

Image source: Google Maps

The Rundown: Google just plugged Gemini into Maps, giving its AI direct access to real-world location data and letting developers tap the company's massive geographic intelligence trove.

The details:

    The capability pulls from Google’s 250M venues worldwide, feeding Gemini current business hours, customer ratings, and venue specifics via API calls.

    Developers can display interactive map widgets within their applications, preserving the Google Maps interface alongside AI-generated responses.

    The system automatically IDs when geographic context enhances a query, retrieving relevant metadata without requiring triggers from users.

    Pricing starts at $25 per thousand location-enhanced prompts, positioning the feature as a premium offering for enterprise apps.

Why it matters: This integration hands Google a competitive moat not easily replicable by rivals — the infusion of its already widely used mapping infrastructure into its advanced AI models. While the steep pricing may lend itself to more enterprise-focused needs, the combo opens a new level of location-aware AI-powered apps.

AI TRAINING

🚀 Reverse-engineer winning ads to create high-quality AI videos

The Rundown: Create professional marketing videos with Sora 2 by analyzing successful UGC ads, converting them to JSON formats, and generating polished AI videos that match proven patterns.

Step-by-step:

    Search TikTok/Instagram for winning UGC ads in your niche, download videos with strong hooks and clear product demos you want to emulate

    Upload to Google AI Studio with Gemini 2.5 Pro and prompt: “Analyze this video shot by shot. Return strict JSON with: scene, description, camera_angles, transitions, voice transcript, on-screen text. Constrain to 15 seconds”

    Paste JSON in ChatGPT to adapt: “Take this JSON and adapt to [your niche/product]. Keep camera angles and pacing. Replace script with [your messaging]. Output Sora-compatible JSON”

    Paste final JSON into Sora, generate, and review for script completion, logo fidelity, readable text, and clean transitions

    Clean up with free tools: remove watermark, enhance speech with Adobe Podcast, upscale via Replicate, and strip AI metadata using video remixer

Pro Tip: Regardless if you’re on the free or paid plan for Sora, I’d recommend cleaning up your video in order to stand out on the “For You page,” as our feeds are dominated by AI video slop that can easily be identified as AI and not marketing-grade content.

PRESENTED BY IBM

🌐 Redefining Network Intelligence with AI

The Rundown: IBM Network Intelligence introduces a new human-AI model that blends analytical AI with “reasoning” AI — a dual approach developed to help enterprises filter noise, identify issues, and scale operations seamlessly.

With IBM Network Intelligence, you’ll experience:

    Fast, accurate insights

    AI that scales while humans guide strategy

    Less tool bloat, more efficiency

Learn more.

AI RESEARCH

✍️ Anthropic co-founder: AI is a ‘real and mysterious creature’

Image source: Reve / The Rundown

The Rundown: Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark published a new essay titled “Technological Optimism and Appropriate Fear,” describing modern AI systems as mysterious entities exhibiting unexpected self-awareness rather than predictable tools.

The details:

    Clark cautioned against considering AI just a tool, saying “what we are dealing with is a real and mysterious creature, not a simple and predictable machine.”

    He said the recently launched Sonnet 4.5’s situational awareness has grown, and now “acts as though it is aware it is a tool.”

    Despite calling himself a “technology optimist,” Clark said he's “deeply afraid” — especially of AI models helping design their own successors.

    Clark believes AI firms need to “do a better job of listening” to concerns from the public and expand the conversation beyond tech elites.

Why it matters: Anthropic has been one of the few frontier labs truly considering the idea of AI as a “being” instead of simply a machine, and its co-founder’s latest words only reaffirm that — though hearing words like “deeply afraid” and “mysterious creatures” from a frontier leader likely won’t help reassure AI safety advocates.

QUICK HITS

🛠️ Trending AI Tools

    🗂️ Skills - Claude’s new folder-based system for loading new capabilities

    ⚙️ SWE-grep - Cognition’s fast, agentic coding model

    🎥 Sora 2 - OpenAI’s social AI video platform, with new Storyboards and extended video lengths

    🎬 Veo 3.1 - Google's new upgraded AI video model

📰 Everything else in AI today

Uber is launching “digital tasks” in its driver app, letting U.S. drivers earn extra cash by completing simple AI training work like uploading menus or recording audio samples.

Elon Musk revealed that he estimates the probability of xAI’s upcoming Grok 5 model achieving AGI is “10% and rising.”

OpenAI announced the pause of video generations featuring Martin Luther King Jr. on Sora following a request from the King estate.

Anthrogen unveiled Odyssey, a 102B parameter protein language model that uses a new “Consensus” architecture to design and optimize proteins more efficiently than traditional approaches.

Meta announced new parental controls coming in 2026 that will let parents block teens' chats with AI characters on Instagram and monitor conversation topics.

COMMUNITY

🤝 Community AI workflows

Every newsletter, we showcase how a reader is using AI to work smarter, save time, or make life easier.

Today’s workflow comes from reader Barry in Australia:

“I’m a performance marketing manager for a global brand, and started using a new workflow for reporting. I use Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude with a fixed prompt with my specific needs and also provided my past framework on insights. I provide 3 different Google analytics screenshots along with some Google ads data and run the prompt. I then use that insights and paste it in a Notion database with the week. On a quarterly basis I ask Notion AI to find trends and insights based on my weekly insights. I've been able to find so many helpful and informative insights with this workflow, both on a weekly and quarterly basis.”

How do you use AI? Tell us here.

🎓 Highlights: News, Guides & Events

See you soon,

Rowan, Joey, Zach, Shubham, and Jennifer — the humans behind The Rundown

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