cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 10月21日 12:27
基于LSTM的加州电力价格预测模型研究
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本文针对加州电力市场,运用LSTM网络,结合历史价格、天气条件和能源组合等特征,构建电力价格预测模型。模型采用创新损失函数,并实施在线学习,提高预测准确性和适应性。

arXiv:2510.16898v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in the California energy market. The model incorporates a variety of features, including historical price data, weather conditions, and the energy generation mix. A novel custom loss function that integrates Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD), and a smoothness penalty is introduced to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, an online learning approach is implemented to allow the model to adapt to new data incrementally, ensuring continuous relevance and accuracy. The results demonstrate that the custom loss function can improve the model's performance, aligning predicted prices more closely with actual values, particularly during peak intervals. Also, the online learning model outperforms other models by effectively incorporating real-time data, resulting in lower prediction error and variability. The inclusion of the energy generation mix further enhances the model's predictive capabilities, highlighting the importance of comprehensive feature integration. This research provides a robust framework for electricity price forecasting, offering valuable insights and tools for better decision-making in dynamic electricity markets.

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LSTM 电力价格预测 加州市场 在线学习 损失函数
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