cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 10月21日 12:15
DAWP:革新天气预测框架
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本文提出了一种创新的天气预测框架DAWP,通过人工智能数据同化(AIDA)模块和时空解耦Transformer实现高分辨率观测数据下观测预测,显著提升了人工智能天气预报(AIWP)的效率和准确性。

arXiv:2510.15978v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Weather prediction is a critical task for human society, where impressive progress has been made by training artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) methods with reanalysis data. However, reliance on reanalysis data limits the AIWPs with shortcomings, including data assimilation biases and temporal discrepancies. To liberate AIWPs from the reanalysis data, observation forecasting emerges as a transformative paradigm for weather prediction. One of the key challenges in observation forecasting is learning spatiotemporal dynamics across disparate measurement systems with irregular high-resolution observation data, which constrains the design and prediction of AIWPs. To this end, we propose our DAWP as an innovative framework to enable AIWPs to operate in a complete observation space by initialization with an artificial intelligence data assimilation (AIDA) module. Specifically, our AIDA module applies a mask multi-modality autoencoder(MMAE)for assimilating irregular satellite observation tokens encoded by mask ViT-VAEs. For AIWP, we introduce a spatiotemporal decoupling transformer with cross-regional boundary conditioning (CBC), learning the dynamics in observation space, to enable sub-image-based global observation forecasting. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that AIDA initialization significantly improves the roll out and efficiency of AIWP. Additionally, we show that DAWP holds promising potential to be applied in global precipitation forecasting.

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DAWP 人工智能天气预报 天气预测 观测预测 时空解耦
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