Fortune | FORTUNE 10月21日 01:40
佛罗里达房地产市场:从火爆到调整
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佛罗里达的房地产市场在疫情期间因吸引远程工作者、退休人士和投资者而异常火爆,房价一度上涨51%。然而,近期库存下降并非源于需求复苏,而是大量房源被撤销以及新房源减少。房价同比下降约5.4%。专家认为,这标志着市场正在进行一次健康的调整,而非崩盘。卖家正逐渐适应新的市场状况,买家则可能迎来购房的有利时机。

📈 市场转变:佛罗里达房地产市场经历了从疫情期间的高温到当前调整期的转变。此前,低税收、宽松的疫情限制以及对更大居住空间的需求吸引了大量外来人口,推高了房价。但现在,库存下降的主要原因是房源撤销和新房源供应减少,而非强劲的市场需求。

📉 价格回落与库存减少:数据显示,佛罗里达的房价同比下降了约5.4%。大量卖家选择撤销房源,而不是以较低的价格出售,导致库存水平下降。例如,迈阿密、坦帕和奥兰多等地的撤销房源与新房源的比例显著。这表明市场正在逐步消化潜在卖家。

⚖️ 健康调整而非崩盘:专家普遍认为,当前佛罗里达房地产市场的变化是市场在进行一次健康的“重置”或“调整”,而非市场崩盘。崩盘通常指价格的剧烈且持续下跌,而此次调整旨在平衡供需关系,使价格回归更现实的水平。卖家正变得更加理性,认识到当前市场与几年前已大不相同。

💡 买卖时机考量:对于潜在的卖家而言,如果非必需,可能需要考虑推迟出售,等待市场进一步明朗。然而,对于买家来说,当前可能是一个不错的购房时机。随着库存收紧,买家议价能力有所下降,但较低的利率和潜在的折扣可能为购房者提供机会,使其能以更优的价格成交。

Florida’s housing market was one of the hottest during the pandemic due to the state’s appeal to remote workers, retirees, and investors who relocated from high-cost states like New York and California seeking more space, lower taxes, and lenient COVID restrictions. Between March 2020 and June 2022, prices rose a whopping 51%. Demand was high, so inventory was low

But now, Florida’s inventory levels are dwindling for a very different reason. Experts say that it’s not revived demand, but rampant delistings and fewer new listings that are causing the change. Home prices are down about 5.4% year over year, according to Zillow data

“Low prices and low demand are making people who aren’t in a hurry simply withdraw listings rather than sell at a low price,” Alexei Morgado, a Florida real estate agent and founder of real-estate exam prep company Lexawise, told Fortune. “Inventory is down, but not because of big sales, but rather because of [delistings] and slow demand. So it’s all a mixed bag.”

Realtor.com data for August show some parts of Florida saw nearly 60 homes delisted for every 100 newly listed homes. Miami had the highest delisting-to-listing ratio with about 59, while Tampa had 33 and Orlando had 28.

Overall, the number of single-family homes for sale in Florida fell from more than 100,000 in the spring to about 96,000, after years of rapid growth, according to Simonsen, who is also the founder and president of real-estate analytics firm Altos Research.  

This downward trend is a signal the market is “clearing out” the would-be sellers, Jenna Stauffer, a Florida-based real-estate broker and global real estate advisor for Sotheby’s International Realty, told Fortune. The ones who needed to sell have most likely already done so, even if it meant lowering prices or offering concessions. 

Stauffer said the pullback is “healthy,” though, because it helps reset home prices and balances out supply and demand. 

“It also shows that sellers are becoming more in tune with market conditions,” she said. 

Is the Florida housing market crashing or correcting?

While experts say Florida’s housing market is experiencing some major changes, they aren’t indicative of a crash—which would be a swift and severe decline in prices driven by an imbalance of supply and demand.

Rather, experts say the trend of inventory declines is a sign the Florida housing market is correcting itself. 

“Higher inventory had been putting downward pressure on prices and giving buyers the upper hand,” Stauffer said. “Buyers had so many options, no urgency and plenty of time to negotiate.”

But now that inventory is tightening, the dynamic could start to shift, she said, because buyers will lose a little bit of that leverage they had and sellers could regain “a little” power. 

Stauffer also said it’s “not a crash in Florida, but a reset.” 

Sellers “have to recognize that this is a different market than a few years ago,” she added. “Demand isn’t the same and supply isn’t the same. It’s forcing everyone to a more realistic middle ground.”

And for that reason, it may not be the best time to sell your home in Florida, Morgado said—but it could be the right time to make a purchase.

“You can sell if necessary, of course, but wait if you can,” he said. “And for buying: You can get [a] good price, with lower rates and discounts, so take advantage of [that] now.”

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佛罗里达房地产 房地产市场 房屋库存 市场调整 购房建议 Florida Real Estate Housing Market Inventory Market Correction Buying Advice
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