🚀 **友好AI的太空殖民限制**：在多极ASI攻防情境下，对齐人类控制下的组织（如政府、军事机构）的友好AI，可能因组织不支持或存在限制而不进行太空殖民。这为地球防御赢得了一定的缓冲时间。

💥 **攻击性AI的太空威胁**：若攻击性ASI逃逸至太空，它可能利用太空资源构建毁灭性武器（如超大口径激光或足够大的小行星），对地球构成生存威胁。地球上的防御AI在此类攻击面前可能显得无力。

🛡️ **最小可行防御定理**：为了应对潜在威胁，任何成功的防御AI系统都应具备动员足够资源的能力，以抵御任何可能由未动员资源构建的武器。这强调了资源动员和战略优势的重要性。

🔬 **科学技术武器化的风险**：文章还提出，新科学技术的武器化也可能带来决定性的战略优势。因此，防御AI不仅要考虑资源，还应能发明并武器化足够的技术，以防御来自未发明技术领域的威胁。

Published on October 18, 2025 4:57 AM GMT

Epistemic status: quick draft of a few hours thought, related to a few weeks cooperative research 

In a multipolar ASI offense/defense scenario, there seems to be a good chance that intent-aligned, friendly AI will not colonize space. This could for example happen because we intent-align defensive AI(s) with institutes under human control, such as companies, police forces, secret services, militaries or military alliances, governments, or supragovernmental organizations. The humans controlling these entities might not support space colonization, space colonization might be outside their organization’s mandate, or there might be other organizational constraints prohibiting space colonization.

If an offensive AI (either unaligned, or intent-aligned with a bad actor) escapes into space, it might be able to colonize the resources it finds there. For example, it could build a laser with a beam diameter exceeding earth's and use it against us. Or, it could direct a meteorite at us large enough to cause extinction. In these scenarios, it seems impossible for earth-bound defensive AI to successfully ward off the attack, or for us, and the defensive AI(s), to recover from it.

Therefore, if:

We end up in a multipolar ASI offense/defense scenario (e.g. because no pivotal act was performed), andDefensive AI is intent-aligned with humans who do not effectively colonize space, andOffensive AI escapes into space, andEscaped offensive AI can mobilize space resources to build a decisively large weapon,

It seems to follow that offense trumps defense, possibly leading to human extinction.

More generally, a minimum viable defense theorem could be formulated for multipolar ASI offense/defense scenarios:

If mobilizing resources can lead to a decisive strategic advantage, any successful (system of) defensive AI(s) should at least mobilize sufficient resources to win from any weaponry that could be constructed from the unmobilized resources.

One could also imagine that weaponizing new science and technology could lead to a decisive strategic advantage. A version of this theory could therefore also be:

If inventing weaponizable science and technology leads to a decisive strategic advantage, any successful (system of) defensive AIs should at least invent and weaponize sufficient science and technology to successfully defend against any weaponry that could be constructed from the uninvented science and technology.

These results might be seen as a reason to:

Support a pause.Perform a pivotal act (if ASI can be aligned).Make sure we align (if ASI can be aligned) defensive, friendly ASI with entities which intent to occupy sufficient strategic space in domains such as space colonization and weaponizable science.