Fortune | FORTUNE 14小时前
黄金价格上涨,分析师认为基本面稳固
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近期黄金价格的飙升并非空穴来风,高盛研究公司的商品策略师Lina Thomas指出,金价上涨根植于基本面而非市场狂热。自2025年初以来,金价已上涨65%,这得益于关税引发的经济不确定性导致美元贬值,以及不断升级的贸易紧张局势和降息预期。美联储等央行持续增持黄金储备以减少对美元的依赖。高盛预计黄金价格将在2026年底达到4900美元。尽管黄金不产生利息或股息,但在经济不确定时期,其作为稀缺且价值高的避险资产作用凸显。摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon也承认,持有部分黄金在投资组合中是“半理性的”。文章将当前的金价上涨与20世纪70年代的情况进行了比较,当时同样存在经济不稳定和政策不确定性,促使投资者寻求价值储存手段。分析师认为,当前黄金市场正处于类似1976年的牛市早期阶段,预计未来价格将继续走高。

📈 黄金价格上涨势头强劲,高盛等机构认为其上涨并非市场狂热,而是基于稳固的基本面因素。自2025年初以来,金价已大幅上涨65%,主要受经济不确定性、美元贬值以及地缘政治紧张局势的推动。

🏦 全球央行正在积极增持黄金储备,以降低对美元的依赖,这为金价提供了持续支撑。高盛预测黄金价格将在2026年底达到4900美元,显示出对黄金长期价值的看好。

🛡️ 在经济不确定时期,黄金作为一种稀缺且价值高的避险资产,其重要性愈发凸显。即使是传统上对黄金持谨慎态度的金融界人士,如摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon,也开始认可在投资组合中配置黄金的合理性。

🕰️ 当前的黄金市场表现与20世纪70年代有相似之处,当时也曾出现因经济不稳定和政策不确定性而引发的金价飙升。有分析认为,当前黄金牛市可能正处于类似1976年的早期阶段,预示着未来价格有进一步上涨的空间。

The recent surge in precious metals isn’t fool’s gold. Lina Thomas, commodities strategist with Goldman Sachs Research, said in a video posted on Thursday the swelling price of gold is more than hype.

“The rally remains grounded in fundamentals, not frenzy,” she said.

The price of gold has skyrocketed 65% in 2025 due to tariff-induced economic uncertainty that has led to the depreciation of the dollar once favored as a safe haven. On Friday, the asset reached another record high of about $4,242 per ounce following rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China and growing chatter around impending rate cuts. Central banks have also continued snapping up gold reserves to reduce exposure to greenbacks.

Goldman Sachs projects gold will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026.

While gold is often viewed as a hedge with no ability to pay interests or dividends, it shines in times of economic uncertainty as a safe-haven asset because it’s a finite commodity with a high assigned value. The recent gold bug has even led Wall Street to reluctantly capitulate to investors’ desire to buy gold. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who does not typically buy gold nor encourage others to do so, recently changed his tune.

“This is one of the few times in my life, it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio,” he told Fortune Editor in Chief Alyson Shontell on Wednesday at the Most Powerful Women conference

1970s deja vu

Goldman commodities strategist Thomas drew a comparison between today’s gold rush and that of the 1970s. Under former President Richard Nixon and, later, former President Jimmy Carter, gold prices spiked—rocketing from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a more than 2,300% increase. This followed Nixon’s ending of the gold standard—which linked the value of the U.S. dollar to the precious metal—in 1971, as well as an amalgamation of factors stirring economic instability, including oil shocks following Middle East turmoil and soaring inflation. 

“Back then, fiscal concerns and policy uncertainty led private investors to seek a store of value outside the system,” she said. “If those fears were to crop up again, we could see the global trend towards diversification intensify.”

The gold market also pales in comparison to the size of equities and Treasury markets, meaning the price of the metal can more quickly increase, Thomas added.

Canadian businessman and legendary gold investor Pierre Lassonde said he not only sees parallels between the 1970s and today, but the U.S. is only just entering the cycle of the bull market when gold prices began to ramp up a half century ago. In 1975, for example, the price of gold began its exponential ascent that ran through the end of the decade, valued at around $161.

“We’re in the equivalent year 1976 right now of that four-year bull market,” Lassonde said in an episode of the Wealthion podcast earlier this month. “I think we have three years to go, and the price is going to go a lot higher.”

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黄金 贵金属 高盛 经济不确定性 避险资产 央行购金 金价 Gold Precious Metals Goldman Sachs Economic Uncertainty Safe Haven Asset Central Bank Buying Gold Price
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