Fortune | FORTUNE 前天 19:05
伯克希尔2025年投资策略:聚焦消费品与房地产
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2025年,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资策略显著偏向与消费者健康和消费能力紧密相关的品牌。尽管经济学家有所担忧,美国消费者自疫情后表现依然稳健。伯克希尔加大了在房地产开发商Lennar Corporation的投资,并增持了能源巨头雪佛龙和饮料品牌Constellation Brands的股份。此举与华尔街和硅谷热衷于人工智能股票形成对比,巴菲特和格雷格·阿贝尔似乎更青睐那些能够满足美国消费者基本需求或反映其长期目标的领域。尽管面临住房短缺和政策挑战,但随着利率下降和供应问题的显现,房地产市场和消费品领域仍被视为有吸引力的投资方向。

🏠 **房地产市场投资加码**:伯克希尔·哈撒韦大幅增加了对美国最大房屋建造商之一Lennar Corporation的持股,反映出其对房地产市场的看好。尽管Lennar股价有所下跌,但其在伯克希尔投资组合中的比例已超过3%。这一举措与白宫试图刺激房地产市场、降低抵押贷款利率的政策方向一致,也契合了美国住房供应严重短缺的宏观背景。

⛽ **能源领域稳健增持**:伯克希尔继续增持雪佛龙的股份,尽管能源行业经历了动荡。在美国市场,汽油和燃油价格的稳定甚至略有下降,成为推动消费者支出增长的重要因素。美国银行的报告指出,上月消费者支出增长约三分之一由汽油消费驱动,显示出其在当前经济环境下的重要性。

🥂 **消费品领域多元化布局**:伯克希尔大幅增持了Constellation Brands的股份,该公司在低醇和无醇饮品领域积极扩张,以适应市场趋势。同时,伯克希尔减持了花旗集团等金融机构的投资,转而加码消费品品牌,表明其对消费者主导型市场的信心,即便是在酒精饮料领域,也通过多元化产品线来应对潜在的市场变化。

💡 **投资策略的宏观考量**:伯克希尔在2025年的投资重点,即消费者品牌和房地产,与华尔街和硅谷对人工智能股票的追捧形成鲜明对比。这一策略显示出对消费者基本需求和长期经济前景的关注,而非短期技术热潮,体现了巴菲特一贯的价值投资理念,即在市场波动中寻找稳定增长的机会。

Throughout 2025, Berkshire’s investments have focused on brands heavily exposed to the health and prospects of consumers. American shoppers have held up well since the end of the pandemic—to the surprise of some economists. Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Buffett’s long-held asset Bank of America, said earlier this year that while consumers were beginning to worry about their cash reserves, they were continuing to spend nonetheless.

And while Wall Street and Silicon Valley have been piling into AI stocks despite warnings of a bubble, Buffett and his successor, Greg Abel, have been looking further afield for investment inspiration.

Some of Berkshire’s largest investments this year have been in brands which likely qualify as essential for U.S. shoppers—or reflect their long term goals.

For example, Berkshire’s most recent filings reveal it now holds some 7 million shares in the Lennar Corporation, a 265% increase on its previous stake. Lennar, one of the nation’s largest home builders, has seen its share price drop 28% in the past year but now makes up a little over 3% of Berkshire’s portfolio, with its holdings between class A and B stock now totaling more than $886 million.

However, action from the White House this year has been focused on getting America’s real estate market moving again. In his continued lobbying for a lower base interest rate, President Trump claimed Fed chairman Jerome Powell was “hurting the housing industry very badly.” Trump added: “People can’t get a mortgage because of him.”

While Chair Powell refrained from lowering the rate in the early days of Trump’s administration, the Federal Open Market Committee has since begun lowering interest rates and has signaled an openness to reduce further in future. While the federal funds rate doesn’t set the mortgage rates lenders are offered, lower borrowing costs should (as a general rule) ultimately result in lower mortgage offers for consumers.

This monetary trajectory sits on top of a basic supply and demand issue: Housing is in short supply. According to a 2025 study from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, America has a “severe” shortage of more than 4.7 million homes.

Policies like tariffs aren’t helping the crisis, the report adds: “Rising costs and limited supply are slowing new home construction despite high demand—underscoring the need for robust and lasting solutions to strengthen supply chain resilience and incentivize building to support the housing sector’s growth and stability.”

Consumables focus

Also on the list of purchases for Berkshire was increasing its stake in Chevron, which Stockcircle reports was up by 3.45 million shares in the second quarter of this year.

The oil and gas industry has suffered a bumpy few years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing supply issues. However, in U.S. markets specifically, the price of gasoline and fuel oil have been the only two energy commodities to post negative inflation data over the past 12 months.

With prices at more stable levels for consumers, Bank of America noted that gas drove spending growth last month. In a note seen by Fortune, BofA wrote that gasoline accounted for around a third of growth across all consumer buying last month. Spending had contracted in the first three months of this year.

Elsewhere, Berkshire also increased its stake in the beverages brand Constellation earlier this year. For the period ending March, Berkshire’s stake more than doubled, growing to about 12 million shares worth $2.2 billion, up from 5.6 million shares at the end of the prior year. At the same time, Berkshire offloaded investments in financial institutions like Citigroup as it doubled down on consumer-centered brands. While there may be a wider movement away from alcohol, Constellation Brands has been increasing its portfolio in the low and no-alcohol area.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦 投资策略 消费者支出 房地产市场 能源 消费品 Berkshire Hathaway Investment Strategy Consumer Spending Real Estate Market Energy Consumer Goods
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