cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 10月16日 12:23
低电压配电网络负荷建模研究
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本文针对低电压配电网络功率流动的可见性限制问题,提出了一种条件扩散模型来合成日负荷曲线,并通过传统指标和功率流建模验证其准确性,为配电网络规划与运营提供现实场景。

arXiv:2510.12832v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Limited visibility of power distribution network power flows at the low voltage level presents challenges to both distribution network operators from a planning perspective and distribution system operators from a congestion management perspective. Forestalling these challenges through scenario analysis is confounded by the lack of realistic and coherent load data across representative distribution feeders. Load profiling approaches often rely on summarising demand through typical profiles, which oversimplifies the complexity of substation-level operations and limits their applicability in specific power system studies. Sampling methods, and more recently generative models, have attempted to address this through synthesising representative loads from historical exemplars; however, while these approaches can approximate load shapes to a convincing degree of fidelity, the co-behaviour between substations, which ultimately impacts higher voltage level network operation, is often overlooked. This limitation will become even more pronounced with the increasing integration of low-carbon technologies, as estimates of base loads fail to capture load diversity. To address this gap, a Conditional Diffusion model for synthesising daily active and reactive power profiles at the low voltage distribution substation level is proposed. The evaluation of fidelity is demonstrated through conventional metrics capturing temporal and statistical realism, as well as power flow modelling. The results show synthesised load profiles are plausible both independently and as a cohort in a wider power systems context. The Conditional Diffusion model is benchmarked against both naive and state-of-the-art models to demonstrate its effectiveness in producing realistic scenarios on which to base sub-regional power distribution network planning and operations.

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低电压配电网络 负荷建模 条件扩散模型 功率流建模 配电网络规划
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