由于政府停摆，美国社会保障局（Social Security）年度通胀调整（COLA）公告推迟。负责计算福利增长的机构已定于下周公布数据。社保福利每年都会根据通货膨胀情况进行调整，调整幅度由上一年的消费者价格指数（CPI）决定。原定于10月15日发布的9月CPI数据因政府停摆而延迟。劳工统计局（BLS）已召回部分员工完成CPI报告，将于10月24日发布9月CPI数据，社保局同日公布2026年COLA。专家预计2026年COLA将高于2.5%，可能在2.7%至2.8%之间，这将提高平均月度退休金。

📌 **公告延迟与新日期：** 由于政府停摆，社会保障福利的年度通胀调整（COLA）公告被推迟。但负责机构已确认，关键的9月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将于10月24日发布，社保局也将在同一天公布2026年的COLA。

📈 **COLA计算机制：** 社保福利的年增长幅度由上一年的消费者价格指数（CPI）决定，旨在抵消通货膨胀对受益人购买力的影响。9月CPI数据的延迟是此次公告推迟的直接原因。

📊 **专家预测2026年COLA：** 尽管具体数字尚未公布，但专家和研究机构（如The Senior Citizens League和Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget）预测，2026年的COLA将高于2025年的2.5%，预计在2.7%至2.8%之间。这将显著提高受益人的月度福利金。

⚖️ **历史平均水平：** 预测的2.7%至2.8%的COLA，与过去20年2.6%的年均福利调整水平相当。虽然低于2023年的8.7%峰值，但高于2010年和2011年的零增长。

The announcement of Social Security's annual inflation adjustment to benefits has been delayed due to the government shutdown, but the agency responsible for handling the benefit increase has set a date for releasing the data next week.

Social Security benefits undergo a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) every year, which updates benefit amounts to account for inflation over the last year. The size of the annual COLA is determined by the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) over the prior year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the CPI on a monthly basis to gauge how much higher inflation has pushed consumer prices. However, the September CPI data that was supposed to be released Oct. 15 and complete the COLA calculation was delayed by the government shutdown.

The BLS announced that it recalled some workers who were furloughed due to the government shutdown to complete the CPI report and allow the COLA to be released. The BLS will now release the September CPI on Friday, Oct. 24, while the Social Security Administration will announce the 2026 COLA the same day.

SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFICIARIES EXPECTED TO GET BIGGER COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENT IN 2026

Experts anticipate that the 2026 COLA will raise Social Security recipients' benefit payments by more than the 2.5% COLA that was implemented for 2025.

The Senior Citizens League estimated last month that the COLA for 2026 will be 2.7%, which would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54 from $2,009 to $2,062.

TSCL noted that its estimate is higher than what was projected at the outset of this year, when it estimated there would be a 2.1% COLA, because "inflation is substantially higher" than its model anticipated.

TAX CHANGES WILL MAKE SOCIAL SECURITY GO INSOLVENT SOONER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE

The group also noted that a 2.7% COLA would be about average from a historical standpoint, as the annual benefit adjustments have averaged 2.6% over the last 20 years. The highest COLA of that period was 8.7% in 2023, while the lowest were in 2010 and 2011 when the COLA was zero.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) developed its own forecast for Social Security's 2026 COLA, which estimates the annual inflation adjustment will be slightly higher at 2.8%.

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