近期研究提出，年轻恒星光度变化可能由其与彗星状天体的碰撞引起，这些碰撞会在恒星上层大气释放巨大能量。历史记录显示，约2300年前，一颗直径100-200公里的克鲁特斯彗星曾近距离飞掠太阳，其撞击产生的能量可能远超太阳瞬时辐射。若能量转化为光，可能导致地球出现灼伤、火灾及类似超强磁暴的现象。这些彗星撞击太阳的事件，可能与树木年轮中发现的“宫城事件”（近一万年内的五次超强太阳耀斑）相吻合。此外，12800年前的全球性火灾痕迹，虽与14700年前的太阳耀斑证据不符，但可能源于一颗大型彗星近太阳解体，部分撞击太阳，部分形成彗尾，地球随后穿越彗尾引发多次小规模撞击。研究推测，对地球有显著影响的彗星撞击太阳事件约每1万年发生一次，而导致大规模灭绝的事件则数百万年一次。鉴于近期恒星及太阳系穿越银盘的事件，我们可能正处于彗星撞击的高峰期，未来一个世纪内发生一次明亮耀斑的风险约为1%。因此，观测和储备防护物资至关重要。

☄️ 彗星撞击太阳假说：科学研究表明，彗星状天体撞击太阳可能解释年轻恒星的光度变化，并释放出巨大的能量。当直径100-200公里的彗星撞击太阳时，其能量释放可能远超太阳的瞬时辐射，若转化为光，可能对地球造成类似超强磁暴的灾难性后果，包括大范围灼伤和火灾。

🌍 地球事件与彗星撞击的关联：这些彗星撞击太阳的事件可能与地球上观测到的重大现象相关，例如树木年轮中发现的“宫城事件”（近万年内的五次超强太阳耀斑）。此外，史前全球火灾的痕迹也可能与大型彗星解体并部分撞击太阳有关，或地球穿越彗星尾部引发的多次小规模撞击。

⏳ 撞击频率与当前风险：研究推测，对地球产生显著影响的彗星撞击太阳事件大约每1万年发生一次，而导致大规模灭绝的事件则更为罕见，数百万年一次。鉴于近期星体活动和太阳系穿越银盘的周期，当前可能处于彗星撞击的高峰期，未来一个世纪内发生一次明亮耀斑的风险约为1%，提示需要加强观测和防护准备。

Published on October 15, 2025 1:20 PM GMT

There are several scientific papers that claim that the variability in luminosity of young stars can be explained by the collisions of these stars with comet-like bodies, and that during such collisions, energy release would be rapid and explosive in the upper layers of the solar atmosphere (similar to the explosion of the Chelyabinsk meteorite).

Furthermore, it is known that Kreutz comet progenitor with a diameter of 100-200 kilometers passed at a distance of 1.3 solar radii from the Sun around 2,300 years ago. Due to the very high escape velocity at the Sun, a body falling from infinity would have a velocity of 618 kilometers per second at its surface. This gives us energy estimates: when a body with a diameter of 100 km falls, the flare energy would be 100 times greater than the energy radiated by the Sun per second, and if a 1000-kilometer body falls, it would be 100,000 times greater. If a significant portion of this energy converts to light, this would lead to burns and fires on the Sun-facing side of Earth, as well as effects similar to a magnetic superflare. Comet impacts on the Sun can explain some of Miyaki events – 5 superflares in last 10 000 years which are observed via radioactive materials in tree rings.  

There are also remnants of global fires 12800 ya, but not coinciding with radioactive traces of the solar flare 14700 ya. This can be explained by disintegration of a large comet near the Sun, part of which impacted the Sun and part of it formed a large tail which Earth later passed through and experienced many small impacts mostly in North America. 

Based on this, we can assume that collisions of comets with the Sun large enough to have consequences on Earth occur approximately once every 10,000 years in current epoch, while collisions that lead to catastrophic consequences (mass extinction) occur once every several million years. 

The overall intensity of comet influx from the Oort cloud depends on the influence of nearby star passages and periodic passage through the galactic disk. Since there was a recent passage of stars (HD 7977 3 millions of years ago and Scholz's Star 80,000 years ago) and the Sun's passage through the disk plane happened 3 million years ago, we may be living in a period of more intense comet bombardment than the average throughout history. Thus, the risk of a bright flare from a comet falling on the Sun equals approximately 1 percent per century. Necessary protective measures include observation, creating stockpiles of food and light-reflecting materials.

TL;DR: Large comets (100-200 km in diameter) probably collide with the Sun approximately every 10,000 years. These collisions release energy equivalent to 0.25-3 hours of the Sun's total radiation in the form of a short flare lasting 0.1-10 minutes, which could cause significant damage and fires on Earth.

 

Disclaimer: abstract above, content and main ideas are human-written; the full text below is written with significant help of AI but is human-verified as well as by other AIs. 

Link to the full text is here.

Discuss