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太阳能光伏投资预测与电池储能增长
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国际可再生能源署(IRENA)的分析师预测,尽管中国以外国家正在实现供应链多元化,但到2025-2026年,全球太阳能光伏制造投资将降至2023-2024年水平的三分之一。印度凭借其生产挂钩激励(PLI)计划,预计其在全球投资中的份额将从2023-2024年的2.5%增至2025-2026年的近8%。然而,美国对印度的最新关税可能会影响两国太阳能光伏贸易和印度新工厂的建设。与此同时,电池储能容量持续扩张,2024年全球新增74吉瓦。报告同时指出,可再生能源容量分布极不均衡,非洲等地区面临严峻挑战,需要大幅增加可再生能源投资以满足能源需求和实现气候目标。报告呼吁各国更新国家自主贡献,加大可再生能源投资力度。

☀️ **太阳能光伏投资面临下滑,但印度有望增长**:IRENA预测2025-2026年全球太阳能光伏制造投资将大幅下降,但印度有望通过其PLI计划显著增加其在全球投资中的份额。然而,美国的关税政策可能对两国间的太阳能光伏贸易以及印度新工厂的建设产生负面影响,需要密切关注贸易动态和政策调整。

🔋 **电池储能容量快速增长,中国占据主导地位**:2024年全球电池储能容量大幅扩张,新增74吉瓦,几乎是2023年的两倍。中国在该领域占据领先地位,其次是美国和欧洲。这一增长趋势表明全球对能源储存解决方案的需求日益增长,对电网稳定性和可再生能源整合至关重要。

🌍 **可再生能源分布不均,非洲面临发展挑战**:尽管全球可再生能源装机容量不断增长,但其分布极不均衡,亚洲、欧洲和北美占据绝大部分。非洲大陆尤其面临挑战,其可再生能源装机容量和新增量远低于需求,需要大幅增加投资以满足不断增长的电力需求并实现气候目标,这凸显了全球能源公平和发展的重要性。

📈 **加速能源转型,呼吁加大投资与政策支持**:联合国秘书长和IRENA总干事均强调了加速公正能源转型的紧迫性,呼吁各国更新国家气候计划,将可再生能源目标翻倍,并大幅提高对可再生能源的年投资。目标是在2030年前将年度投资提高到至少1.4万亿美元,以实现将全球升温控制在1.5°C以内的目标,并呼吁主要经济体发挥领导作用。

IRENA analysts project solar PV manufacturing investments in 2025-2026 to decline to just 1/3rd of the level seen in 2023-2024, even as countries outside China and Southeast Asia diversify their supply chains. India, with its Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, is expected to more than triple its share of global investment from 2.5% in 2023-2024 to almost 8% in 2025-26.  

The US policy vis-à-vis its long-term trading partner India may have some impact from the buildout of new factories in the country, as the North American nation accounted for 97% of the Indian solar PV module exports in 2024. “The latest tariffs may curtail US-India solar PV trade, diminish margins on exports, and even slow the buildout of new factories in India,” cautions the report. 

On the other hand, battery storage capacity continues to expand as the world added 74 GW or around 180 GWh in 2024, almost doubling from the annual additions in 2023. China accounted for the lion’s share with 39 GW, followed by the US with close to 12 GW, and Europe with approximately 11.5 GW. 

Challenges and Recommendations 

Despite growth in renewable energy capacity, its distribution remains highly uneven. According to the report, by the end of 2024, Asia, Europe, and North America held 85.4% of the total, while the rest of the world shared just 14.6%.  

Africa, for instance, with its huge off-grid population and ample renewable energy potential, needs to see the benefits of expanding clean energy to meet its rising electricity demand and provide broader energy access. The continent has only 70 GW of renewable capacity, and added only 7.4 GW in 2024. It requires 38 GW of annual additions over the next 6 years to achieve the required capacity of around 300 GW for the continent under the 1.5°C Scenario. 

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed, “Renewables are deployed faster and cheaper than fossil fuels – driving growth, jobs, and affordable power. But the window to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach is rapidly closing. We must step up, scale up and speed up the just energy transition – for everyone, everywhere.” 

The report urges countries to update their national climate plans (NDC 3.0) ahead of COP30 in Brazil in November 2025, double renewable ambition, and raise annual investment in renewables to at least $1.4 trillion by 2030. 

IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera added, “By raising targets, mobilising finance and deepening cooperation, major economies can lead the energy transition and make COP30 a milestone.” 

The complete report titled Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, is available for free download on IRENA’s website.  

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太阳能光伏 电池储能 可再生能源 IRENA 能源转型 Solar PV Battery Storage Renewable Energy Energy Transition
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