📊 **市场预测政府停摆将持续数周：** 在Kalshi和Polymarket等预测平台上，交易员们普遍押注政府停摆将持续到下个月，显示出对政治僵局短期内难以缓解的预期。Kalshi平台交易员给出了高达65%的概率认为停摆会持续到10月31日，而Polymarket平台则有100%的交易员认为停摆至少会持续到10月15日，这反映了市场对当前政治僵局的普遍担忧。

📉 **联邦雇员面临不确定性：** 随着政府停摆进入第三周，数以万计的联邦雇员面临着被暂时解雇的困境。这种不确定性对他们的生计造成了直接影响。尽管历史表明联邦雇员在停摆结束后会得到追溯性支付，但短期内的经济压力依然存在。

⚖️ **历史停摆回顾与最长记录：** 本次政府停摆并非孤例。自1976年以来，美国政府已发生过20次停摆事件。其中，2018年底至2019年初因边境墙资金争议而导致的34天停摆是美国历史上最长的一次，为当前情况提供了历史参照点。

💰 **交易量显示市场参与度：** Kalshi平台在政府停摆市场上的总交易额已超过810万美元，Polymarket的交易额也超过260万美元，这表明公众和投资者对这一事件的关注度和参与度较高，并愿意为此进行投注。

Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are wagering that the federal government shutdown will extend well into next month, as partisan gridlock shows little sign of easing.

As the standoff enters a third week, hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain furloughed ahead of a Senate vote Tuesday.

Traders on Kalshi give a 65% chance that the government shutdown will last until Oct. 31, with about 52% betting it will stretch just over 36 days. 

PREDICTION MARKET TRADERS BET SHUTDOWN WILL LAST FOR WEEKS

About 44% of traders expect the government shutdown to last more than 40 days.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $8.1 million. 

SWEEPING LAYOFFS 'HAVE BEGUN' AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DRAGS ON

Meanwhile, 100% of traders on Polymarket expect the shutdown to last at least until Oct. 15, with more than $2.6 million wagered on the market.

In trading that extends through Nov. 15, the biggest group of traders, around 26%, are betting the government shutdown will drag on until Nov. 16.

The odds on prediction markets offer a snapshot of trader expectations, not a forecast of when the shutdown will end.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN 101: WE'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE, HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

At 12:01 a.m. ET on Oct. 7, the federal government shut down, requiring agencies to furlough employees in nonessential roles.

Such shutdowns are usually temporary. Once Congress reaches an agreement, federal workers are reinstated and paid retroactively. 

SHUTDOWN FIGHT CASTS A SHADOW OVER JOBS AS TRUMP PREPARES FOR LARGEST FEDERAL RESIGNATION IN US HISTORY

Last week, the White House said it had begun a sweeping downsizing of its workforce. 

One official from the Office of Management and Budget, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Fox News Digital on Oct. 10 that the downsizing would be "substantial."

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Since 1976, the U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns. 

The most recent one, the longest in U.S. history, occurred when a dispute over funding Trump's border wall halted government operations for 34 days, spanning from December 2018 into January 2019.