cs.AI updates on arXiv.org 10月14日
FIRE:突破时序预测难题的频率域分解框架
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本文提出了一种名为FIRE的时序预测方法,通过频率域分解提供数学抽象,实现了可解释和鲁棒的时序预测,在长期预测基准测试中显著优于现有模型。

arXiv:2510.10145v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Current approaches for time series forecasting, whether in the time or frequency domain, predominantly use deep learning models based on linear layers or transformers. They often encode time series data in a black-box manner and rely on trial-and-error optimization solely based on forecasting performance, leading to limited interpretability and theoretical understanding. Furthermore, the dynamics in data distribution over time and frequency domains pose a critical challenge to accurate forecasting. We propose FIRE, a unified frequency domain decomposition framework that provides a mathematical abstraction for diverse types of time series, so as to achieve interpretable and robust time series forecasting. FIRE introduces several key innovations: (i) independent modeling of amplitude and phase components, (ii) adaptive learning of weights of frequency basis components, (iii) a targeted loss function, and (iv) a novel training paradigm for sparse data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FIRE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models on long-term forecasting benchmarks, achieving superior predictive performance and significantly enhancing interpretability of time series

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时序预测 频率域分解 深度学习 预测模型
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