In recent transcripts and audio lectures given by Thiel to Reuters, Thiel recalled warning Musk that his wealth would go “to left-wing nonprofits that will be chosen by Bill Gates.” 

Thiel then did the math: the probability of Musk’s death in the coming year would effectively mean giving $1.4 billion to Gates.

“What am I supposed to do—give it to my children?” Musk responded, as Thiel recounted. “You know, it would be much worse to give it to Bill Gates.”

Launched in 2010 by Bill and Melinda French Gates and Warren Buffett, the Giving Pledge invites the world’s wealthiest individuals and families to publicly commit to giving away at least 50% of their wealth to philanthropy, either during their lifetimes or in their wills. Some of the signers include Bezos’s ex-wife MacKenzie Scott (but not Jeff Bezos), Michael Bloomberg, Elon Musk, George Lucas, and Mark Zuckerberg. And Gates himself has given so much of his wealth away that $51 billion got wiped from his net worth earlier this year.

Musk, who is the richest man in the world with an estimated $473 billion net worth, reportedly signed the pledge in 2012. 

Only one set of living 2010 pledgers have actually given away their wealth anyway

Despite hundreds of billionaires signing the Giving Pledge, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will do so. The pledge is a moral commitment rather than a legally binding contract–participants sign an open letter explaining their reasons for giving and can choose which causes and charities to support. 

In fact, a study found that only one set of living 2010 pledgers (Laura and John Arnold) have given away their wealth, according to the Institute for Policy Studies’ 2025 report “The Giving Pledge at 15.” 

“But across nearly every example, there’s proof that the Pledge is unfulfilled, unfulfillable, and not our ticket to a fairer, better future,” the report wrote. 

Among the 22 deceased U.S. Pledgers, only eight met their pledge before death—just one, Chuck Feeney, gave away his entire fortune while alive.

Furthermore, of the original 57 U.S. signers in 2010, 32 are still billionaires, with their net worth increasing almost 300% since signing. Only 11 of the original group are no longer billionaires—but it’s mainly because their net worth dropped, not because they gave it away.

And when looking at general philanthropy outside of the Just Giving Pledge, America’s billionaires have only pledged or donated $185 billion of their $5.7 trillion combined wealth in the last decade.