Fortune | FORTUNE 10月13日
美股反弹,市场情绪因贸易言论缓和而提振
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美国股市在周一出现反弹,标普500指数上涨1.1%,道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数也显著上扬。此前,特朗普总统在社交媒体上对中国贸易政策的态度出现软化,表示“不要担心中国”,并希望帮助中国而非损害。这一转变与周五的强硬立场形成鲜明对比,当时他曾指责中国“在对待其他国家时是道德的耻辱”,并考虑对中国进口商品加征100%的关税。特朗普态度的缓和引发了对全球两大经济体可能找到合作关系以维持全球贸易的希望,也使得市场对经济前景的担忧有所缓解。

📈 **市场情绪因特朗普对华贸易言论的转变而提振**:在周五发表强硬言论后,特朗普总统在周日表示“不要担心中国”,并希望帮助中国,这缓解了市场对贸易紧张局势升级的担忧。受此影响,美股主要股指出现反弹,标普500指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数均录得上涨。

📉 **股市前期下跌及高估值背景下的反弹**:此前,标普500指数经历了自4月以来的最大跌幅。尽管近期有所上涨,但市场仍面临高估值的批评,尤其是在人工智能行业,一些分析师担忧其存在泡沫。特朗普贸易言论的缓和为市场提供了一个积极的触发因素,促使此前可能被压抑的上涨得以释放。

📊 **全球贸易前景与经济复苏的潜在影响**:如果此次贸易紧张局势的缓和能够像4月份那样,最终促成贸易谈判和不确定性的消退,摩根士丹利策略师认为,这可能为全球经济的持续复苏铺平道路,甚至延续到2026年。市场正在关注即将到来的企业财报季,以评估公司的盈利能力和未来增长前景。

🇨🇳 **中国出口数据表现强劲,但面临结构性调整**:尽管中美贸易关系存在不确定性,中国9月份的全球出口额同比增长8.3%,达到六个月来的最高增长。这表明中国制造商正在积极调整销售策略,将出口重心从美国转移到其他市场,以应对全球贸易格局的变化。

The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% to recover a little less than half of its drop from Friday, which was its worst since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 413 points, or 0.9%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 1.3% higher.

“Don’t worry about China,” Trump said on his social media platform Sunday. He also said that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, “doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

It was a sharp turnaround from the anger Trump displayed on Friday, when he accused China of “ a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.” He pointed to “an extremely hostile letter” describing curbs to exports of rare earths, which are materials used in the manufacturing of everything from personal electronics to jet engines. Trump said at the time that he may place an additional 100% tax on imports from China starting on Nov. 1.

Trump’s backtrack in anger raised hopes that the world’s two largest economies may find a working relationship that allows global trade to continue.

The market’s big moves the last two days echo its manic swings in April, when Trump shocked investors with his “Liberation Day” announcement of worldwide tariffs, only to eventually relent on many to give time to negotiate trade deals with other countries.

If this time ends up similarly, with trade tensions and uncertainty subsiding, potentially even after a sharp drop for stock prices, conditions could allow for a rolling recovery to continue into 2026, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.

To be sure, the U.S. stock market may have been primed for a drop and was just looking for a potential trigger.

It was already facing criticism that prices had shot too high following the S&P 500’s nearly relentless 35% run from a low in April. The index, which dictates the movements for many 401(k) accounts, is still near its all-time high set last week.

Not only did Trump’s backdown from tariffs in April help launch stock prices, so did expectations for several cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve to help the economy.

Critics say the market looks too expensive now after prices rose much faster than corporate profits. Worries are particularly high about companies in the artificial-intelligence industry, where pessimists see echoes of the 2000 dot-com bubble that imploded. For stocks to look less expensive, either their prices need to fall, or companies’ profits need to rise.

That’s raising the stakes in the upcoming earnings reporting season for U.S. companies, which are set to say how much profit they made during the summer. JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines are some of the big names on the calendar for this week.

Fastenal tumbled 4.5% for one of the biggest losses in the S&P 500 after reporting profit for the latest quarter that was slightly weaker than analysts expected.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed in Europe following sharp losses in Asia.

Stocks fell 1.5% in Hong Kong and 0.2% in Shanghai. China reported its global exports rose 8.3% in September from a year earlier, the strongest growth in six months and further evidence that its manufacturers are shifting sales from the U.S. to other markets.

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AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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