近期，许多企业，尤其是在科技和专业服务领域，将裁员原因归咎于生成式人工智能（GenAI）的兴起。然而，剑桥大学的教授Thomas Roulet指出，这可能并非全部真相。他认为，企业面临的高度不确定性才是导致其在人力资源决策上犹豫不决，进而引发裁员的真正原因。这种犹豫不仅影响了当前的员工，还可能对职业发展和人力资本的长期增长造成阻碍。文章还提及了其他行业裁员的不同理由，例如AI基础设施公司Scale AI的裁员与过度招聘、盈利能力和客户动态变化有关，而PwC则因“历史性低位”的离职率导致自然退出减少而进行了裁员。

💡 裁员原因复杂，AI或非唯一主因：剑桥大学教授Thomas Roulet认为，企业将裁员归咎于生成式AI，但更深层的原因是面对高度不确定性时，企业在人力资源决策上的普遍犹豫和恐惧，不敢贸然行动。

📉 企业不作为的长期影响：Roulet教授警告称，这种因不确定性而产生的企业决策停滞，将对员工的职业发展、职业流动性以及人力资本的长期发展产生负面影响，可能导致职业成长和晋升机会的静默式停滞。

🌐 不同行业裁员的多元化动因：文章指出，科技和专业服务领域之外，其他行业或公司也有各自的裁员理由。例如，AI基础设施公司Scale AI的裁员与过度招聘、盈利能力和客户需求变化有关；而PwC则因自然离职率过低，导致人员自然退出不足而进行裁员，显示出不同领域面临的挑战各异。

A Cambridge professor says firms aren't cutting because of AI but because they're frozen by fear.Thomas Roulet said "high level of uncertainty" is driving firms away from making "any" HR decisions.He warned that corporate indecision could quietly stall career growth and mobility.

Companies blaming generative AI for layoffs may be missing the real story.

Thomas Roulet, a professor of organizational sociology and leadership at the University of Cambridge, said in a LinkedIn post on Sunday that while firms, especially in tech and professional services, are pointing to generative AI as the reason for a recent spate of job cuts, the real driver is fear of making the wrong move.

"We hear a lot about firms laying off workers while blaming GenAI," he wrote, "but the broader perspective is that firms are reluctant to make any HR decisions with such a high level of uncertainty."

That hesitation, he added, could have long-term effects on how workers build wealth.

"It will also certainly affect career mobility, which is an important aspect of human capital development," he said.

Thomas Roulet didn't immediately respond to Business Insider's request for further comment.

Layoffs across industries for different reasons

Roulet's comments come as companies across industries, especially in tech and professional services, are offering starkly different rationales for layoffs.

At AI-first shops, cuts are framed as retooling for AI.

Elon Musk's xAI shrank its generalist data-annotation ranks by a third while "surging" specialist AI tutor roles by 10 times to train Grok, while Snorkel AI trimmed 13% of its employees as it "deprioritized some legacy areas" and protected most AI jobs.

Big Tech, meanwhile, often pairs reductions with an AI pivot or discipline push.

Microsoft and Salesforce cut staff while hiring for AI-focused products; Meta is explicitly "raising the bar on performance" and moving out what it called "low performers," while Workday and HPE say reductions align cost structures with an AI-centric strategy.

By contrast, some professional-services firms cite workforce dynamics rather than tech.

PwC laid off about 2% of its US workforce in May due to "historically low" attrition, which leaves too few natural exits.

And in the AI infrastructure and data-labeling niche, Scale AI's cuts were tied to overhiring, profitability, and shifting customer dynamics.