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喀麦隆总统选举:青年不满与老龄化领导层的张力
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喀麦隆即将迎来总统大选,然而年轻一代的选民如Nghobo对腐败的教育系统和长年执政的92岁总统保罗·比亚表示不满。比亚已执政比亚的整个生命,此次寻求第八个任期,其统治已近半个世纪。尽管喀麦隆经济有所增长,但青年失业率和非正规就业率居高不下,精英阶层垄断了发展红利。此外,国家还面临西部地区的独立冲突和北部的“博科圣地”威胁。反对派候选人中不乏前政府官员,引发“肚腹政治”的质疑。分析人士指出,虽然比亚可能不受民众欢迎,但其精英阶层和传统统治者的支持,以及执政党内部的稳定需求,是其长期执政的关键。许多年轻人对选举制度失去信心,认为权力更迭难以通过选票实现。

🗳️ **青年世代的政治疏离感**:许多年轻喀麦隆人,如Nghobo,对国家教育系统和政治现状感到失望,认为选举结果早已注定,并对92岁的现任总统保罗·比亚的长期执政表达不满,认为其年龄过大,无法有效治理国家,并质疑其执政的“趣味性”。

💼 **经济困境与精英垄断**:尽管喀麦隆是石油生产国并实现了一定的经济增长,但青年失业率高达3.5%,且57%的18至35岁劳动力从事非正规就业。年轻人普遍认为经济发展的成果未能惠及普通民众,而是集中在精英阶层手中,加剧了社会的不满情绪。

⚔️ **多重安全危机与政治挑战**:喀麦隆正面临严峻的安全挑战,包括西部地区以英语为主的公民因被法语主体多数民族边缘化而引发的长期分离主义冲突,以及北部地区受尼日利亚“博科圣地”极端组织溢出的军事威胁。这些危机进一步加剧了国家的不稳定。

⚖️ **反对派的困境与“肚腹政治”**:本次大选有多名反对派候选人,其中不乏曾担任政府要职的官员。然而,关键候选人如Maurice Kamto在2018年取得不错成绩后,此次却被选举委员会以技术性理由取消参选资格。有评论指出,部分反对派候选人的行为带有“肚腹政治”色彩,其突然辞职参选可能旨在稀释真正反对派的力量,以换取总统的恩惠。

👑 **精英支持与执政党稳定需求**:分析认为,保罗·比亚虽然可能不受民众普遍欢迎,但其获得了喀麦隆精英阶层、传统统治者以及腐败网络的支持。同时,执政党“喀麦隆人民民主运动”控制着议会绝大多数席位。党内人士认为,只要比亚在世,他就能维持政治稳定,因此希望他继续执政,以避免党内权力斗争。

Nghobo blames his woes on what he calls a corrupt education system which favors children of the elites. As the central African country prepares for Sunday’s presidential election, he said he would not be heading out to vote.

He called the results a foregone conclusion for 92-year-old Paul Biya, the world’s oldest president, who has ruled for Nghobo’s entire life.

“He is already too old to govern, and it’s boring knowing only him as president,” Nghobo told The Associated Press.

The sentiment is shared by millions of the country’s young population, whose median age is 18, in perhaps the most dramatic example of tension between Africa’s youth and the continent’s many aging leaders.

Crisis after crisis

Biya is seeking an eighth term in office in a single-round presidential election where 8.2 million Cameroonians are registered to vote.

He first became president in 1982 following the resignation of his predecessor, Ahmadou Ahidjo, and has ruled since then. He was declared the winner of seven subsequent elections. Cameroon has seen just two leaders since independence in 1960.

“In the face of increasingly difficult international environment, the challenges facing us are more and more pressing,” Biya said in announcing another run. “In such a situation, I cannot shirk my mission.” He did not give details.

The country’s youth are hungry for jobs. According to World Bank data, the unemployment rate stands at 3.5%, but 57% of the labor force aged 18 to 35 works in informal employment.

Despite Cameroon being an oil-producing country that is experiencing modest economic growth, young people say the benefits have not trickled down beyond the elites.

The country also faces escalating security crises. In the western region, a secession fight has long brewed mainly among English-speaking citizens who claim they are marginalized by the French-speaking majority. In the north, the Boko Haram insurgency spills over from neighboring Nigeria, with armed groups routinely attacking border towns.

Biya in this election is challenged by nine opposition candidates, including some former allies and appointees. They include Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who until recently served as the minister of employment, and Bello Bouba Maigari, who was minister for tourism.

Another candidate who ran against Biya in 2018 and came second with a relatively strong 14% of votes, Maurice Kamto, was barred from contesting in this election. The electoral commission said it disqualified Kamto because his party was also sponsoring another candidate, a claim Kamto’s lawyers rejected. Kamto was arrested after the last election for demanding fairness.

“The key opposition candidates are former ministers in Paul Biya’s government who just resigned a few weeks to the presidential elections. The youths see double standards in that kind of sudden twist of demeanor, pointing to the grim fact that ‘belly politics’ is the order of the day,” Wilson Tamfuh, a professor of law at the University of Dschang, told the AP.

He referred to a tactic of “opposition” by those who seek to dilute support for real opposition candidates in return for the president’s favor.

‘President ’til he dies’

Analysts say Cameroon’s elites are unwilling to disrupt the political order after decades of Biya’s rule.

“It is no question that (Biya) is widely unpopular in the country, but he definitely has the support of a lot of the elites and customary rulers through corruption and a money network. That sort of plays a big role in making sure he wins,” said Nat Powell, Africa analyst at Oxford Analytica.

The government has rejected such allegations in the past.

The ruling party, Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, controls the legislature with 94 of 100 seats at the senate and 152 of 180 at the national assembly.

Biya’s health has routinely been a topic of speculation as he spends most of his time in Europe, leaving governance to key party officials and family members.

“Part of it is he wants to be president ’til he dies, but part of it is also entourage and the ruling party,” Powell said. “The party wants to keep him there because he is the stabilizing force, because as long as he lives, that keeps everything together.”

At the University of Yaounde I, Manoung Wilfried, a 27-year-old geoscience student, sat near a staircase, looking pensive. He said he would vote in the election, but none of the candidates has convinced him, and he decried Biya’s participation.

Wilfried cited patriotism as his only motivation for voting.

“For the good of the country, he should hand over the country’s leadership to someone else who can better understand and solve the problems faced by the youths,” he said of Biya.

Like many youth, Nghobo has lost faith in the electoral system which he believes is designed to keep Biya in power.

“Power change in this country can come through other means but not through the ballot box,” he said.

___

Adetayo reported from Lagos, Nigeria.

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喀麦隆 总统选举 青年 老龄化领导 政治 经济 安全 Cameroon Presidential Election Youth Aging Leadership Politics Economy Security
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