All Content from Business Insider 10月11日 01:55
特朗普考虑的下一任美联储主席人选
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美国总统特朗普正在为下一任美联储主席进行人选筛选,目前已初步确定了包括国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和前美联储理事凯文·沃什在内的“前三名”候选人。此外,美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼和贝莱德固定收益投资官瑞克·里德尔也进入了最终候选名单。尽管现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月届满,但白宫仍在积极搜寻接替人选,此次遴选过程可能持续至感恩节之后,而新任主席将有机会获得长达14年的任期。

🔑 核心候选人名单已初步确定:特朗普总统已将潜在的下一任美联储主席人选缩减至“前三名”,其中包括国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒以及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。这三人是目前最受关注的候选人。

🌟 扩展的候选人范围:除了“前三名”,另有两位候选人进入了最终的五人名单,分别是美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼和贝莱德固定收益投资官瑞克·里德尔。这表明特朗普在人选上持有较为开放的态度,并考虑了不同背景的专业人士。

⏳ 漫长的选拔过程与潜在影响:尽管美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束,但白宫的遴选过程预计将持续到感恩节之后。这一过程的延长意味着新任主席的任命可能对未来的货币政策产生长期影响,特别是考虑到新任者有机会获得一个完整的14年任期。

President Donald Trump's shortlist to lead the Federal Reserve includes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, and former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh

President Donald Trump has narrowed down his shortlist to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but don't expect a decision anytime soon.

Trump recently told reporters that Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller, director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh were "the top three."

CNBC reported on October 10 that two more names also made the cut: Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman and BlackRock Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder.

Powell's term expires next May, but hasn't stopped the White House from aggressively searching for his replacement. CNBC reported that the next round of interviews may stretch until after Thanksgiving. The Fed will have a vacancy in 2026, meaning Trump's pick could enter the central bank with a full 14-year term as governor.

Here are the leading contenders.

Kevin Hassett

Before joining Trump's orbit, Hassett advised a succession of Republican presidential nominees on economic policy, including George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

As of October, Hassett is the favorite on PolyMarket and Kalshi, two of the leading prediction markets. Hassett is a much more commanding favorite on Kalshi.

During Trump's first term, Hassett served as director of the president's Council of Economic Advisors. He returned to the White House during the COVID-19 pandemic and was severely criticized for publishing a model showing coronavirus deaths hitting zero by May 15, 2020.

In October 1999, Hassett cowrote with journalist Jason Glassman "Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market." Some economists have heavily criticized the book, largely because the index took more than 22 years to reach that threshold.

Christopher Waller
Prediction markets favor Fed Gov. Christopher Waller as the replacement for Fed Gov. Jerome Powell.

Fed Gov. Christopher Waller told CNBC that he thought his interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went "well."

"I mean, it was a lot of discussion about various aspects of talking about various speeches I've given my points of view, they've kind of wanted to follow up on tales of it," Wall said in October. "I just thought it was great. I mean, it was really there was nothing political about it. There was nothing. It was all serious economic discussion. So that's why I thought it was brilliant."

Bessent, himself once a contender to replace Powell, is leading the interview process to narrow Trump's shortlist.

Waller, a longtime regional Fed official, was seen as a convention pick when Trump nominated him to the central bank in 2019. Simultaneously, Trump also nominated Judy Shelton, a former campaign advisor and a Fed critic. The fight over Shelton's nomination soon spilled over onto Waller's.

In December 2020, the Senate confirmed Waller 48-47, the narrowest margin for any Fed governor since 1980, per The New York Times.

In July, Waller joined Gov. Michelle Bowman (another Trump first-term pick) in opposing the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the first dual dissent in more than 30 years.

Kevin Warsh
Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh speaks during an event at the Hoover Institution

Trump told reporters in September that Hassett, Waller, and Warsh were "the top three" to replace Powell.

Back during his first term, Trump reportedly considered Warsh to lead the Fed before he chose to nominate Powell in 2017.

Warsh spent his early years at Morgan Stanley, working as a specialist in mergers and acquisitions. President George W. Bush nominated him to the Fed in 2006 after Warsh served as an economic advisor in the Bush White House.

Drawing on his Wall Street ties, Warsh played a pivotal role in the central bank's response to the 2008 global financial crisis. When he left the Fed in 2011, the Times called him the Fed's chief liaison to Wall Street.

From the sidelines, Warsh has echoed Trump's criticism of Powell, calling for "regime change" at the Fed.

"The specter of the miss they made on inflation, it has stuck with them," Warsh told CNBC in July. "So one of the reasons why the president, I think, is right to be pushing the Fed publicly is we need regime change in the conduct of policy."

Michelle Bowman
Michelle Bowman

Bowman was not in Trump's "top three," but that doesn't mean she's out of contention.

CNBC reported that Bowman was one of two additional hopefuls to the final five.

In 2018, Trump appointed Bowman to the central bank. After confirmation, she was reappointed in 2020. In June, she was narrowly confirmed as the vice chair of supervision.

Bowman started as an intern for Sen. Bob Dole. During the George W. Bush administration, she held posts at FEMA and the Homeland Security Department. She was vice president at Farmers and Drovers Bank in Kansas, her family's bank, before becoming the state's top banking official.

In September 2024, Bowman became the first Fed governor to vote against an interest rate decision since 2005. In July, she again voted against holding rates steady, though this time Waller joined her dissent.

Rick Rieder
Rick Rieder is seen in 2019

There's also a big Wall Street name on Trump's shortlist.

Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, has spent decades on Wall Street, dating back to his time at Lehman Brothers. According to CNBC, he and Bowman were two additions to Trump's top three.

Rieder is responsible for managing roughly $2.4 trillion in assets, per Blackrock. He's served as a member of the Fed's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets.

The hopefuls who likely missed the cut
Jefferies' David Zervos, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard were reportedly once on Trump's shortlist.

Trump's shortlist at one point reportedly had almost a dozen names.

CNBC reported that the following are no longer under consideration: David Zervos, Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; former St. Louis Fed President James "Jim" Bullard; Fed Gov. Philip Jefferson; and Marc Sumerlin, a former economic advisor to President George W. Bush.

Former Fed Gov. Larry Lindsey told CNBC that he withdrew from contention.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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特朗普 美联储 人事任命 凯文·哈塞特 克里斯托弗·沃勒 凯文·沃什 米歇尔·鲍曼 瑞克·里德尔 Trump Federal Reserve Personnel Appointment Kevin Hassett Christopher Waller Kevin Warsh Michelle Bowman Rick Rieder
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