Fortune | FORTUNE 10月10日 22:03
美国房地产面临更新换代挑战
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美国房地产市场正经历前所未有的“老化”现象,与人口老龄化趋势同步。由于人口结构变化、生育率下降以及商业地产未能满足现代化需求,大量建筑资产价值受损。文章指出,无论是仓库、办公室还是公寓,许多设施已无法创造价值,成为阻碍生产力和资本的瓶颈。这种“过时”现象不仅限于特定区域,而是跨越各类资产类别,例如老旧的工业仓库、不再适应电商需求的零售店面,以及缺乏数字化基础设施的公寓。投资者需认识到,在资本市场正常化和低利率时代结束的背景下,单纯依靠债务已无法保障回报,唯有通过运营执行,将过时资产重塑为能够满足代际需求、创造持续价值的“运营型业务”,才能在新的投资环境中获得成功。

🏢 **房地产过时现象普遍存在**:文章指出,美国房地产市场正面临建筑“过时”的挑战,这与人口结构变化息息相关。例如,老旧的仓库无法支持自动化仓储,办公空间难以吸引人才,以及缺乏数字基础设施的公寓等,都已无法有效服务于现代商业和生活需求,成为价值的拖累。

📈 **人口结构与需求转变驱动价值重塑**:美国较低的出生率和大量人口退休,加之千禧一代和Z世代更注重体验式消费,这些人口结构性变化正深刻影响房地产需求。远程工作的普及也使得人们更倾向于选择能提升生活品质的空间,而非仅仅是地理位置的便利。这要求房地产行业必须适应需求驱动的新常态。

💡 **投资新思路:从资产持有到运营执行**:在低利率时代结束、资本成本上升的背景下,传统的“买入持有”模式已难以为继。文章强调,未来的投资成功将依赖于“运营执行”,即识别并改造过时资产,将其转化为能够满足不断变化的代际需求的“运营型业务”。例如,将不适合现代物流的仓库改造为温控存储空间,或将废弃的零售店改造成满足社区需求的教育中心。

🔄 **资产价值重定义:实用性胜于地理位置**:当前,房地产的价值正从传统的地理位置导向转向以“实用性”为核心。无论是在供应链、劳动力还是客户触达方面,实体资产能否适应代际转变、满足现代需求,成为决定其价值的关键。那些无法适应的资产,将面临价值侵蚀的风险。

Growing up in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, I often visited my grandparents in West Philadelphia. One community felt vibrant, while the other tired and left behind. West Philly’s neglected housing and retail had been underinvested in. Many properties no longer served their residents. They were obsolete.

Fast forward to today, and America’s real estate is “aging in place” much like its population. The generational wealth transition and the wave of retirements have long been expected as the baby boomers pass on their $80 trillion of net worth. But something something unexpected has happened along the way—the housing market froze and older owners stayed where they were or downgraded to compete with younger generations for “starter homes” that were also perfect for retired grandparents to be close to their families. As birth rates slow and not enough people are being born to sustain growth, commercial real estate is also stuck in place, unable to meet modern needs.

For the first time in decades, we are faced with buildings that no longer create value for the businesses and people using them. A warehouse that is too small for robotics, an office that fails to attract top talent, or an apartment without adequate digital infrastructure all fall into this category. This is obsolescence. For business leaders and investors, this is not a niche concern in real estate. These assets either help people and companies compete or quietly drain productivity and capital.

While headlines fixate on interest rates, the deeper risk is the vast stock of outdated buildings that no longer fit modern life. With capital markets normalizing, investors can no longer rely on cheap debt to mask underperformance. Buildings either create value, or they do not.

Demographics and demand are rewriting the rules

The forces driving America’s real-estate obsolescence are as demographic as they are financial. U.S. birth rates are at historic lows and an average of 11,000 Americans retire daily. The boomer generation is wealthier and more active than any before, and spends heavily on experiences. Millennials and Gen Z devote more than half of their discretionary spending to experiences rather than goods. These long-term trends need to be a focus of the real estate industry.

Technology amplifies the shift. Remote work untethered households and businesses from geography, turning real estate from a supply-driven business into a demand-driven one. People now choose spaces that improve their quality of life and work, not just where they’re forced to be. Properties that fail to deliver are left behind, no matter how well located.

For investors, that means office space that once supported culture and collaboration can now undermine talent strategy, or warehouses that once drove efficiency can now slow supply chains. The stakes have shifted from square footage to competitiveness.

Office assets, often located in central business districts that were once bustling, are a timely example. According to CBRE, 23.3 million square feet of U.S. office space is slated for demolition or conversion in 2025, while only 12.7 million square feet is under construction. For the first time in decades, inventory will shrink, underscoring the scale of the challenge.

Obsolescence across asset classes

The effects of these changing demographics are visible everywhere. Industrial warehouses once built with low ceilings and narrow bays now constrain e-commerce distribution, where robotics and scale define efficiency. Numerous retail chains, once built on predictable foot traffic, are shuttering, while the same footprints are being reimagined for new service-driven uses.

Flexible work has reduced business travel, but it has also expanded demand for alternative accommodations. Retired baby boomers, along with their millennial-led families, are seeking out RV parks and campgrounds to share leisure experiences. At the same time, apartments without digital infrastructure or secure package facilities quickly lose relevance as groceries and package services increasingly arrive on demand.

The common thread: usefulness, not location, now defines value. Physical assets tied to supply chains, workforces, and customers can either adapt to these generational shifts, or quietly erode competitiveness.

A new investment playbook

For decades, real estate investing was like stock trading: buy, hold, and sell. All of this was based on an unchallenged trust that prices would continuously rise in an era sustained by cheap money and low rates.

Today, borrowing is happening again. Commercial real estate lending rose 26% in the past year, but loans are now priced in a market where on the a 10-year Treasury yield is above of about 4.05%. In this environment, debt by itself no longer guarantees returns.

Forward-looking investors are already repositioning assets. We’re seeing value in redeploying obsolete properties into essential operating businesses. Industrial warehouses with 20-foot clear heights, unsuitable for modern robotics-driven distribution, can be repositioned into more relevant uses such as climate-controlled storage. Buildings that once seemed like fixed costs must now must be managed as active tools of business strategy, capable of adapting as customer needs and business models evolve.

Similarly, the wave of former CVS, RiteAid, and Walgreens closures shows how quickly prized assets can become obsolete. Once considered safe bets for steady rent, many now sit vacant. Yet their size, parking, and prime locations make them ideal for conversion into early childhood education centers, a growing need for millennial families.

These examples show that strong returns no longer come from financial engineering or passive buy-and-hold strategies. They come from operational execution, transforming obsolete buildings into businesses that serve the evolving needs of Baby Boomers to millennials to Gen Z and beyond.

A turning point for investors

For investors—and for CEOs—the lesson is direct: America’s real estate can either age into obsolescence and freeze capital in empty shells, or be renewed into platforms that drive growth. The winners will treat real estate as an operating business, not a commodity, generating returns by creating useful places that meet evolving generational needs and deliver lasting value.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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房地产 美国经济 投资 人口结构 资产管理 Real Estate US Economy Investment Demographics Asset Management
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