MIT News - Artificial intelligence 10月10日 12:12
雷·库兹韦尔:人工智能将引领人类进入指数级进步时代
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在获得麻省理工学院(MIT)的罗伯特·A·穆赫杰出校友奖时,未来学家雷·库兹韦尔发表了关于人工智能和技术进步的乐观演讲。他预测,人工智能将与人类功能深度融合,带来寿命、医疗等领域的巨大飞跃。库兹韦尔强调,技术进步的速度正在加速,未来二十年将出现“令人难以置信的突破”。他还回顾了自己的早期经历,以及家庭对他的影响,并详细阐述了人工智能将如何通过模拟试验、提升健康水平,最终实现“长寿逃逸速度”。他认为,到2045年,人类智能将与人工智能融合,实现“奇点”,极大地扩展人类的潜能。尽管承认技术是双刃剑,但他坚信人类能够负责任地引导技术发展,实现其承诺。

💡 **指数级增长的乐观预测**:库兹韦尔坚信技术进步正以指数级而非线性的速度发展,预言在未来二十年内将出现“令人难以置信的突破”。他以自身经历和对计算能力的观察为例,强调了这种加速趋势,并以此作为对人工智能将带来巨大社会变革的信心来源。

🚀 **人工智能驱动的健康与长寿革命**:他认为人工智能将在健康和医疗领域带来重大变革,例如用模拟“数字试验”取代人体试验,并显著提高人类寿命。库兹韦尔提出了“长寿逃逸速度”的概念,即科学进步的速度将快于衰老,使人类能够不断“回到过去”的健康状态。

🧠 **人机融合与“奇点”的到来**:库兹韦尔最广为人知的预测之一是人类与人工智能的融合。他设想在2030年代,纳米机器人将进入人脑,实现大脑与云端的直接连接,从而极大地增强人类智能。他预测到2045年,这种融合将达到“奇点”,使人类智能的潜力扩展百万倍。

⚖️ **平衡技术潜力与风险的责任**:库兹韦尔承认技术是一把双刃剑,既能带来福祉也能造成威胁。但他表示,人类必须认真对待人工智能的潜在风险,并有“道德责任”去实现新技术的承诺,同时对其进行有效控制,他相信我们“不会注定无法控制任何这些风险”。

Innovator, futurist, and author Ray Kurzweil ’70 emphasized his optimism about artificial intelligence, and technological progress generally, in a lecture on Wednesday while accepting MIT’s Robert A. Muh Alumni Award from the School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences (SHASS).

Kurzweil offered his signature high-profile forecasts about how AI and computing will entirely blend with human functionality, and proposed that AI will lead to monumental gains in longevity, medicine, and other realms of life.

“People do not appreciate that the rate of progress is accelerating,” Kurzweil said, forecasting “incredible breakthroughs” over the next two decades.

Kurzweil delivered his lecture, titled “Reinventing Intelligence,” in the Thomas Tull Concert Hall of the Edward and Joyce Linde Music Building, which opened earlier in 2025 on the MIT campus.

The Muh Award was founded and endowed by Robert A. Muh ’59 and his wife Berit, and is one of the leading alumni honors granted by SHASS and MIT. Muh, a life member emeritus of the MIT Corporation, established the award, which is granted every two years for “extraordinary contributions” by alumni in the humanities, arts, and social sciences.

Robert and Berit Muh were both present at the lecture, along with their daughter Carrie Muh ’96, ’97, SM ’97.

Agustín Rayo, dean of SHASS, offered introductory remarks, calling Kurzweil “one of the most prolific thinkers of our time.” Rayo added that Kurzweil “has built his life and career on the belief that ideas change the world, and change it for the better.”

Kurzweil has been an innovator in language recognition technologies, developing advances and founding companies that have served people who are blind or low-vision, and helped in music creation. He is also a best-selling author who has heralded advances in computing capabilities, and even the merging of human and machines.

The initial segment of Kurzweil’s lecture was autobiographical in focus, reflecting on his family and early years. The families of both of Kurzweil’s parents fled the Nazis in Europe, seeking refuge in the U.S., with the belief that people could create a brighter future for themselves.

“My parents taught me the power of ideas can really change the world,” Kurzweil said.

Showing an early interest in how things worked, Kurzweil had decided to become an inventor by about the age of 7, he recalled. He also described his mother as being tremendously encouraging to him as a child. The two would take walks together, and the young Kurzweil would talk about all the things he imagined inventing.

“I would tell her my ideas and no matter how fantastical they were, she believed them,” he said. “Now other parents might have simply chuckled … but she actually believed my ideas, and that actually gave me my confidence, and I think confidence is important in succeeding.”

He became interested in computing by the early 1960s and majored in both computer science and literature as an MIT undergraduate.

Kurzweil has a long-running association with MIT extending far beyond his undergraduate studies. He served as a member of the MIT Corporation from 2005 to 2012 and was the 2001 recipient of the $500,000 Lemelson-MIT Prize, an award for innovation, for his development of reading technology.

“MIT has played a major role in my personal and professional life over the years,” Kurzweil said, calling himself “truly honored to receive this award.” Addressing Muh, he added: “Your longstanding commitment to our alma mater is inspiring.”

After graduating from MIT, Kurzweil launched a successful career developing innovative computing products, including one that recognized text across all fonts and could produce an audio reading. He also developed leading-edge music synthesizers, among many other advances.

In a corresponding part of his career, Kurzweil has become an energetic author, whose best-known books include “The Age of Intelligent Machines” (1990), “The Age of Spiritual Machines” (1999), “The Singularity Is Near” (2005), and “The Singularity Is Nearer” (2024), among many others.

Kurzweil was recently named chief AI officer of Beyond Imagination, a robotics firm he co-founded; he has also held a position at Google in recent years, working on natural language technologies.

In his remarks, Kurzweil underscored his view that, as exemplified and enabled by the growth of computing power over time, technological innovation moves at an exponential pace.

“People don’t really think about exponential growth; they think about linear growth,” Kurzweil said.

This concept, he said, makes him confident that a string of innovations will continue at remarkable speed.

“One of the bigger transformations we’re going to see from AI in the near term is health and medicine,” Kurweil said, forecasting that human medical trials will be replaced by simulated “digital trials.”

Kurzweil also believes computing and AI advances can lead to so many medical advances it will soon produce a drastic improvement in human longevity.

“These incredible breakthroughs are going to lead to what we’ll call longevity escape velocity,” Kurzweil said. “By roughly 2032 when you live through a year, you’ll get back an entire year from scientific progress, and beyond that point you’ll get back more than a year for every year you live, so you’ll be going back into time as far as your health is concerned,” Kurweil said. He did offer that these advances will “start” with people who are the most diligent about their health.

Kurzweil also outlined one of his best-known forecasts, that AI and people will be combined. “As we move forward, the lines between humans and technology will blur, until we are … one and the same,” Kurzweil said. “This is how we learn to merge with AI. In the 2030s, robots the size of molecules will go into our brains, noninvasively, through the capillaries, and will connect our brains directly to the cloud. Think of it like having a phone, but in your brain.”

“By 2045, once we have fully merged with AI, our intelligence will no longer be constrained … it will expand a millionfold,” he said. “This is what we call the singularity.”

To be sure, Kurzweil acknowledged, “Technology has always been a double-edged sword,” given that a drone can deliver either medical supplies or weaponry. “Threats of AI are real, must be taken seriously, [and] I think we are doing that,” he said. In any case, he added, we have “a moral imperative to realize the promise of new technologies while controlling the peril.” He concluded: “We are not doomed to fail to control any of these risks.” 

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Ray Kurzweil 人工智能 AI 技术进步 指数增长 长寿 奇点 人机融合 MIT Ray Kurzweil Artificial Intelligence AI Technological Progress Exponential Growth Longevity Singularity Human-AI Merging MIT
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