Fortune | FORTUNE 10月09日 00:00
年轻人重返父母家:住房负担加剧的社会现象
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文章探讨了当前年轻人(35岁以下)选择搬回父母家居住的现象,这一趋势在过去十年显著增长。主要原因是城市租金和房价的快速上涨远超工资增长,使得独立居住和购房变得异常困难。文章分析了住房供应不足是高租金的根本原因,并指出不合理的规划和分区法规阻碍了城市住房建设。以奥斯汀为例,放宽 zoning laws 促进了住房建设,降低了租金,并减少了年轻人与父母同住的比例。文章还讨论了与父母同住的利弊,以及住房短缺对经济、创新和社会保障的广泛影响,强调了增加住房供应的重要性。

🏠 **住房负担加剧导致年轻人重返父母家**:过去十年,35岁以下成年人与父母同住的比例显著上升,远超年轻人口的整体增长率。这主要归因于城市租金年均上涨约4%,而全职工作者的工资年均仅增长0.6%,使得年轻人在大城市独立生活的经济压力剧增。尤其在购房方面,美国房价十年内上涨了约90%,首次购房者的平均年龄也从31岁升至38岁。

🏗️ **住房供应不足是推高租金的关键因素**:经济学原理表明,当需求增长快于供给时,价格必然上涨。在纽约、旧金山等热门大城市,住房供应严重受限。当地的规划和分区法规,如商业用地转为住宅用地所需的大量文书工作,以及邻居的反对意见,都成为阻碍开发商满足市场需求的重重障碍。

💡 **放宽法规促进住房建设,缓解居住成本**:德克萨斯州奥斯汀市通过放宽分区法规,显著增加了住房建设,并在一年内使租金下降了10%,两年后更是下降了22%。这表明,简化建设流程可以有效降低居住成本,并吸引年轻人留在城市。奥斯汀年轻人与父母同住的比例远低于其他城市,印证了住房可负担性对年轻人生活选择的重要性。

⚖️ **与父母同住的利弊与社会影响**:与父母同住的主要优势在于可以节省租金,加速储蓄购房首付,从而帮助年轻人更快实现购房目标,这在一定程度上促进了25-34岁年龄段的房屋拥有率上升。然而,不利之处在于社交受限,可能影响认识新朋友,进而可能导致晚婚晚育。此外,年轻人工作满意度较低也可能与居住在家中、远离城市就业中心有关。

🌐 **住房短缺对美国经济和社会的广泛影响**:文章认为,住房短缺不仅是年轻人面临的问题,更是影响整个美国经济的“住房理论”。它阻碍了人们在理想地点工作生活,限制了才能发挥,导致生产力增长缓慢。同时,也减少了人们交流想法、激发创新的机会。若年轻人因住房问题而推迟生育,将对未来美国社会保障体系的资金支持构成挑战。

A potentially worrisome trend is emerging among young adults. Instead of landing a job and moving to the big city after graduation, many are moving back into their childhood homes instead. About 1.5 million more adults under 35 live with their parents today than a decade ago. That’s a 6.3% jump, more than double the rate of growth for the young adult population overall.

The issue is affordability. Over the past decade, urban rents have climbed about 4% per year, while wages for full-time workers have increased by only 0.6% annually. That means it’s harder than ever to live in a big city on the typical salary — especially if you’re a new graduate without much work experience.

The situation is even more challenging for aspiring homeowners: The median house price in the U.S. has risen about 90% in just 10 years, or more than 6% each year. And as prices rise – the median home sells for more than $400,000 now – so too do the ages of homebuyers. The median first-time U.S. homebuyer is 38 years old, up from 31 about a decade ago.

Why is the rent so high?

Put simply, there isn’t enough housing. As an economist, I know that when demand rises faster than supply, prices have to increase. And supply is severely limited in the places where people most want to live: big cities such as New York and San Francisco.

In most of these cities, planning and zoning laws prevent developers from building enough to meet demand. For example, rezoning a plot of land from commercial to residential often requires mountains of paperwork. And in many cities, objections from neighbors can stall a proposed development. These are just two of many obstacles local governments throw in homebuilders’ way.

One city that has tried something different is Austin, Texas. After deliberately relaxing its zoning laws a few years ago, Austin has seen a boom in home construction. Rents fell by 10% in one year and by as much as 22% in two years after that change. By making it easier to build, Austin has made it cheaper to live there.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Austin has a far lower share of its young adults living with their parents than many other cities do. Just 6% of working adults in the Austin metro area live with their parents, one analysis found, versus nearly 14% in Greater San Antonio and 20% in Greater Los Angeles.

The pros and cons of living with the ’rents

One obvious advantage of living with parents is that they tend to charge below-market rents, or nothing at all. That makes it easier to save for a deposit on a house, helping young adults get on the property ladder sooner than they would otherwise. Indeed, homeownership rates among those 25 to 34 have risen slightly since 2016.

There are also potential disadvantages, however, particularly when it comes to socializing. Living at home with parents can make it much more challenging to meet new people. This, in turn, could partly help explain why Americans are getting married and having children later in life. These delays might not seem important, but they can leave people feeling like they’re behind in life, which can affect their health and well-being.

I also wonder whether living with parents is indirectly making young adults unhappier at work. That’s because older adults often live far from the urban centers where young people are most likely to find jobs directly related to their degrees. Job satisfaction rates are substantially lower among 18- to 29-year-olds than among the rest of the working population.

A problem for the entire US

The housing shortage isn’t just an issue for young adults. A recent analysis I found insightful was headlined “The housing theory of everything.” It argued that the issue helps explain at least part of the current malaise in the U.S. economy.

For example, when people can’t live and work where they want, they’re unable to use their talents fully. That contributes to the relatively slow productivity growth the U.S. has experienced in recent years.

Similarly, if people can’t live in areas where they might meet and work with like-minded individuals, they have fewer opportunities to share ideas, which can hinder innovation.

And if the housing shortage is indeed encouraging young adults to delay having children, it could make it harder for the U.S. to fund Social Security and other government programs in the future.

Making it easier to build new homes in places people want to live and work could go a long way to easing these problems. It’s possible high rents translate into high barriers to adulthood, too.

Rohan Shah, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Mississippi; Institute for Humane Studies

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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年轻人住房 租金上涨 购房困难 住房供应 城市规划 经济影响 社会趋势 Young Adults Housing Rent Increase Homeownership Housing Supply Urban Planning Economic Impact Social Trends
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