😷 应对未来严重疫情的必要性：文章指出，比COVID-19更严重的疫情是真实存在的可能性，而一个高质量的可重复使用口罩（如弹性呼吸器）可能是保护生命的关键。

💰 口罩的经济价值分析：通过对比COVID-19（约0.2%死亡率）和1918年流感（约2.5%死亡率），并假设口罩能将死亡风险降低一半，文章估算出口罩的潜在价值。即使按照保守估计，一个能使用十年的口罩，其价值也远高于其30至60美元的成本，甚至可能达到数千美元（基于美国交通部对生命价值的估算）。

⏳ 提前购买的策略：文章强烈建议读者立即购买口罩，而不是等到疫情发生时再行动。提前准备不仅能确保自己能获得口罩，还能在灾难发生时减轻整体的供应压力，帮助减少短缺。

🛠️ 口罩选择建议：文章提到了一些具体型号的口罩，如3M 6200，并推荐搭配3M 2091 P100滤棉，同时提供了购买建议，强调了选择可靠且经过时间检验的产品的重要性。

Published on October 8, 2025 2:40 AM GMT

A pandemic that's substantially worse than COVID-19 is a seriouspossibility. If one happens, having a good mask could save your life.A high quality reusable mask is only $30 to$60, and I think it's well worth it to buy one for yourself.Worth it enough that I think you should order one now if you don'thave one already.

But if you're not convinced, let's do some rough estimation.

COVID-19 killed about 0.2% of people (20Mof 8B). The 1918 flu killed more like 2.5% (50Mof 2B). Estimating from two data points is fraught, but this givesyou perhaps a 0.02% annual chance of dying in a pandemic. Engineeringcouldmake this much worse, especially given progress in AI, but let's setthat aside for now to make a more conservative case.

A reusable mask ("elastomeric respirator") would be really valuable tohave, if things got really bad. Let's imagine they cut your risk ofdying by half: the rated efficacy is muchhigher (99%+) but real-world use isn't perfect, especially overthe months or years another pandemic could last.

A mask should last at least ten years if unused, and over that decadeit would drop this conservative estimate of your risk ofpandemic-induced death from 0.2% to 0.1%. If you, as the USDoT does, value not dying at $14M, then this is worth $14k. Evenif the benefit of a mask is 100x lower than we estimated ($140), it'sstill worth it to buy one.

I like geeking out over masks and there are a lot ofoptions. I have a bunch of models, and if you'd like to come trythem sometime (next EA Bostonmeetup on 10/26?) I'd be happy to show you what they're like. But ifyou just want to pick one and be done with it, leaving it in a boxthat you more likely than not don't need to open, a time tested butsomewhat garish option is the 3M 6200 mask in Small ($17), Medium ($15), Large ($19) plus aset of 3M2091 p100 filters ($7/pair):

I'd also recommend buying one now instead of trying to notice when apandemic is coming: buying now ensures you get one instead ofscrambling when everyone else is competing over a supply that can'tkeep up, and everyone who prepares ahead of timehelps reduceshortages when a disaster comes.