2020年，埃隆·马斯克曾预测特斯拉将在三年内推出一款2.5万美元的全自动驾驶电动汽车。然而，受疫情等因素影响，通货膨胀显著。文章对比了当时2.5万美元的购买力与当前新款Model 3（售价36,990美元）的价格。经过通胀调整，2020年的2.5万美元相当于现在的31,118美元，比新款Model 3价格高出约5,800美元。若考虑税收抵免，价格接近但仍存在差距。同时，文章指出，即使是新款Model 3，其价格在当前高企的新车平均售价（尤其是电动车）中仍显实惠。

🚗 马斯克曾预测2.5万美元电动车，但通胀已大幅推高其购买力。根据美国劳工统计局的数据，2020年9月的2.5万美元，在2023年8月相当于31,118美元，这意味着与当前新款Model 3（售价36,990美元）相比，仍有超过5,800美元的差距。

🤖 全自动驾驶承诺仍需额外付费。马斯克在2020年曾表示2.5万美元的电动车将是“全自动驾驶”。虽然新款Model 3配备了Autopilot功能，但实现更高级别的自动驾驶（FSD）仍需要额外支付费用，这进一步拉大了与最初设定的价格和功能目标的距离。

💰 税收抵免或可弥合部分价格差距，但整体目标仍有挑战。若考虑7,500美元的EV税收抵免，新款Model 3的价格可降至约30,000美元，接近马斯克当年的预测。然而，这并未考虑原预测中价格本身也应随通胀调整的因素，且全自动驾驶的额外成本依然存在。

📈 新车市场整体价格高企，新款Model 3相对具有竞争力。尽管价格高于马斯克的预测，但考虑到当前新车平均交易价格已达49,077美元，电动车平均价格更是高达57,245美元，新款Model 3的定价在整体市场中仍显得较为实惠。

In 2020, Elon Musk predicted Tesla would make a $25,000 electric vehicle.Inflation soared between then and now, partly due to the pandemic.With the cheaper Model 3 now rolling out, we crunched the inflation-adjusted numbers.

"About three years from now, we're confident we can make a very compelling $25,000 electric vehicle that's also fully autonomous," Elon Musk said in September 2020.

It's been just over five years since then. Are we any closer to Tesla's new, cheaper vehicles?

On Tuesday, the company rolled out a Tesla Model 3 that costs $36,990 before taxes, fees, and incentives.

If we applied the US consumer price index rate to the $25,000 price in September 2020, what's the inflation-adjusted sticker price of Musk's prediction now?

There was significantly high inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic, so this number has likely increased substantially.

Because I studied English Literature in college, I reached out to Andy Kiersz, an economics and data whiz at Business Insider, for help.

He took me to an inflation calculator run by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This uses the broad US CPI, which encompasses most everyday costs such as fuel, food, and rent. The latest numbers are through August.

$25,000 in September 2020 is now $31,118.03. When you compare that to today's new Model 3 price of $36,990, it's more than $5,800 above Musk's prediction.

He also said back in 2020 that the $25,000 EV would be "fully autonomous." This latest Model 3 has Autopilot features, but you have to pay more for FSD, the more autonomous software package.

What if we include US tax incentives for EV purchases? Most of these just went away, but let's try it anyway.

$36,990 minus $7,500 is just under $30,000. So maybe Tesla has reached Musk's prediction? Should we adjust that original $25,000 prediction lower as well, though? 

Either way, the new Tesla Model 3 is pretty cheap. That's because new vehicle prices have soared in recent years.

The average new-vehicle transaction price in the US in August was $49,077. For EVs, that number was an eye-watering $57,245, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates.

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