Fortune | FORTUNE 10月07日 22:48
AI投资狂热引发担忧
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思科前CEO约翰·钱伯斯警告称,当前AI投资热潮和股市收益让人联想到20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫。他认为AI技术发展速度是互联网时代的五倍,将导致工作消失的速度远超替代速度,引发对初入职场者就业的担忧。钱伯斯作为风险投资者,正押注AI创业公司,同时提醒传统企业需适应AI驱动的创新经济,否则可能被淘汰。他强调市场正经历前所未有的不确定性,企业必须快速转型。

📈 钱伯斯指出,当前的AI投资热潮和股市收益让人联想到20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫,担心形成新的投资泡沫。

⚠️ 他认为AI技术发展速度是互联网时代的五倍,将导致工作消失的速度远超替代速度,引发对初入职场者就业的担忧。

🤝 钱伯斯作为风险投资者,正押注AI创业公司,同时提醒传统企业需适应AI驱动的创新经济,否则可能被淘汰。

⏳ 他强调市场正经历前所未有的不确定性,企业必须快速转型,CEO和商业领袖需要学会在AI时代重塑自身。

But the recent frenzy of AI-fueled investments and stock-market gains has Chambers experiencing déjà vu: The AI-hype feels all too reminiscent of the 1990s crash. 

“In the internet age, there was an irrational exuberance on a really large scale,” Chambers told the Associated Press. “In this AI one, there is a lot of tremendous optimism that does indicate a future bubble for certain companies.”

“Is there going to be a train wreck? Yes—for those that aren’t able to translate the technology into a sustainable competitive advantage,” he added. 

The speed of AI 

In 1995, Cisco Systems had a value of around $15 billion. It later skyrocketed to $550 billion, making it one of the most valuable companies at the time in March 2000, before the investment bubble burst, which resulted in its stock tanking 80%. Though the networking giant bounced back since then–its stock price hasn’t reached the level it once was during the internet madness. 

This time around, Chambers is watching from the other side of the table—as a venture capitalist betting on AI startups. Now as he is laying out the red flags he’s seen in the past, but with one important distinction for AI: speed. 

Chambers said the new technology is moving at five times the speed and will produce three times the outcome of the internet age.  

“The problem this time is that if I am right about AI moving at five times the speed of the internet, we are going to destroy jobs faster than we can replace them,” he said.  

“Will we be able to replace them over time? Yes, but there is going to be a drought while we have to re-educate lots of people,” he added. 

“Entry-level jobs, both white and blue collar, are going to disappear fast,” the ex-CEO warns 

Chambers said AI’s job-elimination potential worries him “big time.” The topic has been widely discussed among recent graduates, where the pool of job opportunities for Gen Z is becoming increasingly meager. 

“We need to change education,” he said. “Entry-level jobs, both white- and blue-collar, are going to disappear fast. We’re creating more productivity, but we have to create more jobs as well. If companies start making more money, they’ll either raise dividends or invest in new areas. Hopefully, most will invest in new areas to create new jobs.”

Chambers also has a warning for Fortune 500 companies: If they fail to adapt, they could disappear. 

“They won’t have the skills to adjust to this new innovation economy driven by AI,” he said. “They were trained to move at the speed of a five-year cycle instead of a 12-month one.”

“It’s the most uncertain time on a global basis, ever. I would argue that this is the new normal. With the speed the market is moving at now, you have to be able to reinvent yourself, which most CEOs and business leaders don’t know how to do, especially with AI,” he said. 

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AI投资 互联网泡沫 约翰·钱伯斯 就业担忧 企业转型
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