LeadDev 10月07日 20:03
应对工程中的隐形风险:引入“危险性”指标
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文章探讨了工程领域中一种被忽视但至关重要的工作类型——“危险性工作”(perilwork)。这种工作具有高投入、低回报、低可见度但系统性风险高的特点,例如数据库升级或系统弃用。它与传统的“辛劳”(toil)有所不同,后者是重复性、可自动化但缺乏长期价值的工作。文章提出了一种量化风险的指标——“危险性潜力”(peril potential),用于评估某个系统、代码库或流程发生系统性问题的可能性。通过将这一指标应用于待办事项列表,可以更有效地识别和优先处理高风险任务,避免其演变成重大事故。该指标还能与现有的开发体验指数(DXI)和 SLOs 等框架结合,平衡吞吐量与运营弹性,帮助团队更自信地提升系统稳定性。

💡 **识别“危险性工作”的重要性:** 文章指出,工程组织普遍存在一种“危险性工作”(perilwork),即那些高投入、低可见度、低回报但具有重大系统性风险的任务,如数据库引擎升级、系统弃用等。这类工作常常被推迟,但其风险会随着时间累积,可能导致生产系统中断、服务等级协议(SLA)违约或声誉受损。

📊 **“危险性潜力”量化风险:** 为应对这一挑战,文章提出了“危险性潜力”(peril potential)这一量化风险指标(0-100分)。该指标旨在评估任何系统、代码库、流程或服务发生系统性问题的可能性。通过定期审查和更新,它可以将无形的风险转化为清晰、可操作的数字,促使团队及时干预,减少系统压力,并防止小问题演变成大事故。

🚀 **优化待办事项与决策:** “危险性潜力”可用于优化待办事项列表的优先级排序,尤其针对那些源于过往事故的、高优先级但非紧急的任务。通过为这些任务分配风险分数,可以提供基于历史事故数据的明确优先级信号。此外,该指标还能激励团队完成高风险工作,并通过自动化和改进工具(如自动化质量门禁、改进的预演环境、分阶段部署)来降低系统风险,从而在组织层面带来更积极的决策和更稳定的系统。

🔗 **与现有框架的协同作用:** “危险性潜力”并非孤立的指标,它能与现有的生产力框架(如开发体验指数 DXI)和 SLOs 相辅相成。DXI 衡量开发体验和业务影响,而“危险性潜力”则增加了风险维度,捕捉负面潜力。当与 SLOs 结合时,“危险性潜力”能聚焦于最威胁 SLOs 实现的具体组件和流程,使组织能够有针对性地进行改进,从而在不损害稳定性的前提下,更自信地收紧错误预算。

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Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Toil builds up silently. But by tackling the messy, invisible work that nobody wants to touch, you can supercharge your engineering org.  

All teams have tasks on their to-do list – high-effort, low-visibility, low-reward tasks that carry significant systemic risk and get passed from one person to the next. It could be something like a full database engine upgrade for a mission-critical service. Everyone agrees it needs to be done before the vendor’s end-of-support date, but beyond that, the work offers little glory – customers wouldn’t notice the upgrade, unless something were to break the system. 

The work is tedious, touches dozens of downstream systems, and carries a real risk of disrupting production systems if mishandled. In sprint planning, it is deferred again and again. No one wants to own it, but everyone knows the longer it waits, the more dangerous it becomes. 

This is what I call perilwork. I coined the term because I found no existing word that captured this specific intersection of toil and operational risk. But simply naming the phenomenon isn’t enough. Recognizing and addressing the issue before it turns into costly incidents is key.

Toil versus perilwork

The Google SRE handbook defines toil as work tied to running a production service that is manual, repetitive, automatable, lacking in enduring value, and that scales linearly with service growth. Examples include deployments, on-call duties, migrations, and deprecations. Recent Google research says developers “do not find [migration] work rewarding”; industry leaders advise explicit recognition to counter this, and Google’s own engineering book notes deprecation work is low-visibility and routinely deprioritized

Perilwork is a special type of toil in that, despite its low visibility and lack of direct customer impact, it carries systemic risk such as downtime, failure, service level agreement (SLA) breaches, or reputational harm. As a result, it has greater potential to be prioritized. This concept aligns with the “effort-reward imbalance” model among mental health professionals, where sustained high effort with low rewards was observed to impact employee burnout and patient safety. In engineering, this imbalance is amplified when there is a possibility of “negative reward,” such as being held accountable for an incident triggered by the work.

Putting toil measurement in context

Most people agree that toil is bad. Reducing toil is sometimes treated as a goal in and of itself, yet no robust telemetry-based approach exists for measuring it. The Google SRE organization recommends a survey-based method to estimate the percentage of time teams spend on toil and advises reducing that figure when it exceeds 50%. For non-SRE teams, the appropriate threshold may differ depending on the nature of the work. Moreover, ROI for such initiatives is notoriously difficult to quantify. While goals such as reducing time-to-deliver a feature can provide some incentives to automate toil, they tend to be most useful for repeatable, grunt work. They are far less effective at capturing the value of tackling one-off, high-effort initiatives such as migrations, upgrades, or deprecations, where the goal isn’t speed but rather avoiding a system crash.

What this means is that most organizations aren’t clued into the perilwork accumulating in their systems.

A framework for risk-informed prioritization

So how can organizations identify toilsome tasks of the risky kind? I propose peril potential. This is a quantitative risk metric, like a scale from 0–100, that expresses the likelihood a change may cause system-wide issues. Peril potential can be applied to any system, code repository, process, or service to which you would define an SLA or service level objective (SLO). It should be reviewed periodically as part of regular system health reviews to ensure the score reflects current operational realities.

Each system can begin with a peril potential of 0, or with a pre-determined value identified during its design phase. The “risks” section of a system’s design document is a useful source for deciding on this initial score. After incidents, SLA breaches, or alerts tied to changes, the peril potential should be updated to reflect the new level of risk.

Higher scores act as alarms indicating that maintenance and toil-heavy tasks, such as automating deployments or stabilizing pipelines, should move toward completion. This metric turns intangible risk into a clear, actionable number, prompting timely intervention, reducing systemic stress, and preventing small fixes from escalating into serious incidents.

Over time, peril potential can have two large effects on organizational dynamics and decisions. Firstly, it can incentivize high-risk work through reward systems like peer recognition or performance metrics. Secondly, it can reduce risk with automation and tooling. For example, implementing automated quality gates, improved staging, or phased deployments can lower system peril and result in better scores.

Applying peril potential to backlogs

To operationalize peril potential, begin with backlog triage, especially high-priority, but non-emergency tasks created as follow-up work from past incidents. Think half-automated canaries, migration scripts without tests, fragile CI/CD pipelines. These are the kinds of tickets that linger unresolved because their business impact seems unclear despite known recurrence risk. Assigning peril scores provides a clear prioritization signal grounded in past incident data.

Peril potential complements existing productivity frameworks like the developer experience index (DXI). Where DXI enables measurement of developer experience and business impact, peril potential adds a risk dimension, capturing negative potential as well as upside. Together, they help balance throughput with operational resilience. Looking at the graph below, the goal is to actively move items out of quadrant one (high risk, low reward) to ideally quadrant three (low risk, high reward).

SLOs vs. peril potential

In many respects, peril potential parallels the role of SLOs. SLOs are typically calculated with a certain error budget or buffer based on a product’s maturity and perceived reliability. The higher the number of “nines” in an SLO target, the better the reliability, and by extension, the lower the peril potential.

However, SLOs and peril potential operate at different levels of granularity. SLOs track the reliability of an overall service or system. Peril potential, in contrast, puts a spotlight on the specific components, processes, or subsystems that most threaten the ability to meet those SLOs. This makes peril potential a complementary measure: by identifying and prioritizing improvements in high-risk areas, it can directly support efforts to tighten SLOs without jeopardizing stability.

By integrating peril potential with SLO-based monitoring, organizations can both maintain the big-picture view of service health and take targeted action where it will have the greatest long-term effect. 

Final thoughts

Invisible toil and peril work are foundational to system stability, yet they remain under-addressed because their ROI is difficult to articulate. Peril potential offers a structured, quantitative way to surface and prioritize the high-risk, low-reward tasks that teams often defer until it is too late. 

When used alongside established productivity metrics such as DXI and interpreted through qualitative feedback and multi-metric frameworks, peril potential transforms gut instinct into actionable data. It also complements SLOs by identifying the specific components and processes that threaten overall reliability, enabling organizations to target improvements that make it possible to tighten error budgets with confidence. 

Over time, the “hot potatoes” in your backlog will become planned, executed, and retired with less friction – and the weed-filled garden will begin to clear, steadily, measurably, and with greater organizational confidence.

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Perilwork 工程风险 系统稳定性 Peril Potential Engineering Risk System Stability Toil SRE DevOps
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