Fortune | FORTUNE 10月07日 12:07
CEO们对经济前景感到不确定,但对增长机遇持乐观态度
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KPMG的CEO展望调查显示,全球商业领袖正面临多重不确定性,尤其是在关税、AI和网络安全领域。尽管如此,他们对经济的韧性和增长机遇仍持谨慎乐观态度。调查指出,89%的CEO认为关税将显著影响业务,并计划通过调整供应链来应对。同时,AI正在重塑商业模式,催生新的收入来源,但其对劳动力结构的影响和潜在风险(如深度伪造)也引发担忧。在网络安全方面,量子计算的威胁和AI驱动的网络犯罪是CEO们关注的焦点。尽管挑战重重,许多CEO看到了经济和市场的增长潜力,资本流动也开始活跃。

📈 **普遍存在的经济不确定性与机遇并存**:KPMG的调查显示,尽管89%的CEO预计关税将显著影响其业务,且79%已调整了增长计划,但他们对经济的整体韧性以及科技驱动的市场增长持乐观态度。资本流动性的增加和M&A活动的活跃也预示着潜在的增长机会。

🛡️ **关税和供应链的挑战与重塑**:关税是CEO们面临的首要问题,其不确定性促使企业寻求供应链优化、成本削减以及可能的近岸或回岸生产。86%的CEO计划在必要时提高价格,85%的企业正积极调整采购策略以最大程度地减少关税影响。

🤖 **AI的颠覆性影响与机遇**:AI不仅被视为提高效率的工具,更是驱动商业模式创新和开辟新收入来源的关键。然而,AI的快速发展也带来了 workforce 结构调整的挑战,调查显示35%的CEO计划在未来几年内因AI进行部分 workforce 缩减,并普遍预计 AI agents 将成为团队成员,管理这些 agents 的能力将成为 managerial 新焦点。

🔒 **网络安全与量子计算的严峻挑战**:CEO们对网络安全风险,特别是量子计算可能破解现有加密技术的能力,以及AI驱动的恶意软件和深度伪造技术感到高度担忧。82%的CEO认为网络犯罪和安全问题是可能损害其组织的重大趋势,而欺诈检测与预防(65%)和身份盗窃(52%)是主要顾虑。

🤝 **信任与人才在不确定时代的价值凸显**:在充满不确定性的环境中,建立信任至关重要,尤其是在AI时代,人类技能和人际关系的重要性更加凸显。CEO们认识到,保留和再培训高潜力人才(75%)、重新设计以适应AI协作的角色(65%)以及招聘具备AI能力的人才(64%)是应对未来挑战的关键策略。

KPMG’s CEO Outlook survey offers an annual look behind the curtain at the issues keeping the top business leaders up at night. Every year, hundreds of leaders answer the call from the Big 4 accounting firm to speak frankly and anonymously about key issues that need to solved, and 400 participated in the 2025 edition. CEOs have a message for America: they just aren’t sure of, well, anything.

Business leaders told KPMG—and its recently anointed chair and CEO, Timothy Walsh—that they’re wrestling with uncertainty across several different areas of their work. This is well documented and is to be expected, Walsh told Fortune in an interview. “There’s this general, as you would expect, general conversation around business uncertainty,” Walsh said, adding that he was encouraged at least to see the “alignment” in terms of topics coming up in C-suite conversations.

Peeling back the survey data, Walsh revealed that an unsurprisingly sizable majority (89%) say tariffs will “significantly impact” their business’ performance and operations over the coming three years. And nearly as many, 86%, said their firm will increase prices as needed. They are working hard to get around this, with 85% saying their company will strive to shift its sourcing strategies to minimize the impact as much as possible. The landscape is so uncertain that nearly every CEO says they need to make some kind of change: 79% said they’ve adapted their growth plans.

Walsh talked to Fortune about uncertainty on tariffs and AI, and the importance of trust in a climate of such uncertainty. CEOs are concerned with another advancing technology with terrifying capabilities, Walsh said: cyber and quantum. “That honestly keeps me up at night.”

Cybersecurity’s quantum challenge

Cybersecurity risks remain elevated, especially as quantum computing approaches. As for advances in quantum computing, Walsh said it could one day soon be capable of breaking all encryption, and companies tell him that they’re doing full assessments. It’s a “massive effort” to ensure that they’re not exposed when that quantum computing capability arrives, Walsh warned.

Adding into the mix the capabilities of AI agents and, Walsh said, “in many cases, a nation-state-type investment,” he’s very concerned about malware and deepfake-type technologies escalating in danger. Over the next three years, 82% of CEOs polled said cybercrime and cyber insecurity was a top trend that could hurt their organization. Cyber risk was overall the second-highest cited pressure behind CEOs’ short-term decisions. CEOs are most concerned about fraud detection and prevention (65%) and identity theft (52%), but they also said they have plans in place to mitigate.

All that being said, Walsh said CEOs are “feeling optimistic because they see so many growth opportunities.” The economy has been surprisingly strong despite all the uncertainty, the tech sector is driving a very strong stock market, and he even noted some “large deals and transactions” are coming through when it comes to M&A. “Capital flows are starting to move and [be] a bit more liquid.”

Tariffs and the AI element

Walsh told Fortune that tariffs are obviously the number-one thing on every CEO’s mind. And it’s not only the fact of tariffs but potential changes to tariffs, and “the uncertainty around whether those tariffs will continue to change.” There’s an overwhelming need for businesses to not only consider what will change but to get agile enough to work on their supply chains to be prepared for future, still uncertain, changes to come. To that end, 34% of CEOs said in the survey that supply chain resilience is the top pressure driving short-term decisions, followed by cyber security risks (29%) and global economic uncertainty (25%).

Walsh emphasized that tariffs are introducing a multi-dimensional challenge for CEOs. “The CEOs I speak with are addressing tariff impacts in three areas: cost take-out, supply chain optimization including reshoring, onshoring considerations, and ultimately pricing.” He said KPMG is actively working with clients in all of those areas and yes, AI is part of this transformation, too. The prominence of AI is another layer of uncertainty being added to the picture, but Walsh said it’s helping a lot of CEOs: “AI is not just an efficiency play, CEOs are focused on innovating their business models and introducing new revenue streams and products.”

The AI hourglass to come?

Walsh said AI capabilities are changing quickly, and he acknowledged that companies are starting to restructure in response. The survey found that CEOs “mostly see an hourglass shape” to their organizations in next three years, Walsh said, noting that’s typical with every new technology deployment. He added that “no one knows exactly where [workforce shape] is headed … It’s a challenge to forecast as AI advances rapidly.” In the survey, 35% said they are planning for workforce reductions in some areas over the next two to five years due to AI, and 69% see an hourglass with higher numbers of senior leaders and early-career workers and fewer in the middle (another 16% said a vertical triangle, 13% a triangle and 2% an inverted pyramid).

Managers are facing new responsibilities, managing teams with integrated AI agents, for instance. Walsh said some CEOs describe teams with both people and AI agents on them, “and managers of those teams have to ensure [that] agents complete steps in the workflow process, that agents have good data inputs so that their outputs can be relied upon, and continuously review those outputs.” CEOs surveyed said 86% of them see AI agents becoming embedded team members next year, and half think managers will be primarily responsible for managing AI agents’ performance as opposed to, say, HR or IT.

Walsh agreed with Fortune‘s reporting that “human skills” still matter as AI implementation shows the necessity of reviewing AI outputs. “Human skills are critically important,” Walsh said. Even though KPMG invests in and spends time upskilling its workers on AI and providing them with tools and licenses, he said he continues to remind leaders that “human-to-human relationships are critical … both internally and externally. Trust is more important than ever. Building trust with our teams, clients and ensuring we can trust outputs of technology like AI.” Given the uncertain climate, he added, trust is at a premium. The top change that CEOs see coming is retaining and re-training high-potential talent (75%), followed by redesigning roles to reflect AI collaboration (65%) and hiring AI-capable talent (64%).

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CEO Outlook KPMG 经济不确定性 关税 人工智能 网络安全 量子计算 供应链 人才 信任 CEO Outlook KPMG Economic Uncertainty Tariffs Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity Quantum Computing Supply Chain Talent Trust
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